苏州市经济发展与环境污染耦合关系的实证研究

选取苏州市1990-2004年经济与环境数据, 通过分析经济因子与环境因子相互关系,探究苏州市经济增长与环境质量演替轨迹,建立经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型.根据模型结果分析了苏州市环境库兹涅茨曲线的特征及产生的原因,并提出了相应的改进建议.实证研究表明,苏州市部分环境指标与人均GDP演替轨迹呈现一定的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,但大部分环境指标尚未达到转折点.产生这种现象的主要原因是产业结构的不合理.     

Is there a material Kuznets curve for aluminium? evidence from rich countries

The paper tests the material Kuznets Curve (MKC) hypothesis with regard to aluminium consumption for 20 high-income countries over the period 1970 to 2009. The test is based on the suggestion of Narayan and Narayan (2010). Various unit root and cointegration tests are applied. The aluminium and GDP series are found to be integrated of order one and cointegrated. Additionally, the Blundell–Bond system generalized methods-of-moments (GMM) is employed to conduct a panel causality test in a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) setting. Unidirectional causality running from real per capita GDP to the aluminium intensity is uncovered in both the short-run and long-run. While controlling for structural shocks, the MKC hypothesis is found to hold at individual levels for Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Japan, and United Kingdom as well as for the whole panel. A 1% increase in GDP generates an increase of 0.87% in metal intensity in the short-run and a fall of 0.82% in the long-run for the panel.     

Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient: Novel tools for analysing seasonal variation of environmental radon gas

Using a methodology derived from Economics, the Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient are introduced as tools for investigating and quantifying seasonal variability in environmental radon gas concentration. While the Lorenz Curve presents a graphical view of the cumulative exposure during the course of the time-frame of interest, typically one year, the Gini Coefficient distils this data still further, to provide a single-parameter measure of temporal clustering. Using the assumption that domestic indoor radon concentrations show annual cyclic behaviour, generally higher in the winter months than in summer, published data on seasonal variability of domestic radon concentration levels, in various areas of the UK, Europe, Asia and North America, are analysed. The results demonstrate significantly different annual variation profiles between domestic radon concentrations in different countries and between regions within a country, highlighting the need for caution in ascribing seasonal correction factors to extended geographical areas. The underlying geography, geology and meteorology of a region have defining influences on the seasonal variability of domestic radon concentration, and some examples of potential associations between the Gini Coefficient and regional geological and geographical characteristics are proposed. Similar differences in annual variation profiles are found for soil-gas radon measured as a function of depth at a common site, and among the activity levels of certain radon progeny species, specifically ²¹⁴Bi deposited preferentially in human body-fat by decay of inhaled radon gas. Conclusions on the association between these observed measures of variation and potential underlying defining parameters are presented.     

中国经济增长与环境污染关系的再检验——基于全国省级数据的面板协整分析

运用面板协整工具和动态最小二乘法（DOLS）对我国1985-2007年间30个省级行政区环境污染变量与经济增长变量的关系进行了实证检验,与以往研究相比,该方法的检验结果具有更高的势值（power）和稳健性。结果显示我国工业废气污染、工业废水污染和工业固体废弃物污染变量与经济变量之间存在长期协整关系,且变量间均呈现出显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)关系,而EKC转折点并没有出现在过低的水平上。目前我国仍面临巨大的环境压力,在减排方面需要花费巨大的经济成本,中国在应对环境变化领域将面临巨大的挑战,必须深入探索经济增长方式转变路径,努力施行减物质化的生态经济发展模式。     

利用GPS-RTK技术进行既有线曲线整正测量研究

既有线曲线整正测量是铁路既有线提速改造和工务部门大修设计的主要任务之一.需要改造的既有铁路一般均为繁忙干线,并行车密度较高.传统的测量方法是将测量仪器安置在线路上,这样不仅在作业过程中受行车干扰,作业效率也不够高,而曲线地段通视条件差,作业难度是相当大的.同时,作业人员的安全问题也变得十分突出.笔者提出采用先进的GPS-RTK技术,对既有线曲线整正进行测量.采用该技术不仅能克服气候条件的限制,而且能以较高的频率,较高的精度测定互不通视的各被测点的坐标,克服了传统的作业方法要求置镜点与被测点之间必须通视、作业受天气影响、存在误差累积、内业计算工作量大等缺陷.该法在保证作业人员安全的前提下大大提高作业效率.     

Effects of calibration on L-THIA GIS runoff and pollutant estimation

Urbanization can result in alteration of a watershed's hydrologic response and water quality. To simulate hydrologic and water quality impacts of land use changes, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) system has been used. The L-THIA system estimates pollutant loading based on direct runoff quantity and land use based pollutant coefficients. The accurate estimation of direct runoff is important in assessing water quality impacts of land use changes. An automated program was developed to calibrate the L-THIA model using the millions of curve number (CN) combinations associated with land uses and hydrologic soil groups. L-THIA calibration for the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana was performed using land use data for 1991 and daily rainfall data for six months of 1991 (January 1-June 30) to minimize errors associated with use of different temporal land use data and rainfall data. For the calibration period, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The calibrated CN values were used for validation of the model for the same year (July 1-December 31), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.52 for January 1, 1991 to December 31, 1991 using uncalibrated CN values. As shown in this study, the use of better input parameters for the L-THIA model can improve accuracy. The effects on direct runoff and pollutant estimation of the calibrated CN values in the L-THIA model were investigated for the LEC. Following calibration, the estimated average annual direct runoff for the LEC watershed increased by 34%, total nitrogen by 24%, total phosphorus by 22%, and total lead by 43%. This study demonstrates that the L-THIA model should be calibrated and validated prior to application in a particular watershed to more accurately assess the effects of land use changes on hydrology and water quality.     

基于半参数面板数据模型的江苏省经济增长与水污染排放关系实证研究

本文以江苏省为研究区域,采用1990—2013年江苏省市级面板数据,基于单位根检验和面板协整检验,运用可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)和参数、半参数固定效应回归方法,对经济增长与工业COD排放之间的关系展开研究。研究发现,江苏省经济增长与工业COD排放之间存在倒U形曲线关系,即全省工业COD排放随经济的发展呈现先增长后降低的趋势,同时人口增长对水污染物排放影响很大,二者之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线表明了经济持续发展能够协调并能解决其与水污染排放之间的困境。本研究丰富了社会经济发展与水污染关系在市级尺度层面的实证研究,为\"十三五\"期间江苏省水污染治理提供了政策依据。     

Pathways to urban sustainability

The concept of sustainable development has become very much in vogue in the past decade. We have also observed a shift in the interpretation of this concept from a global perspective to a meso perspective—that is, at a local, regional or sectoral level. This paper aims at highlighting the urban dimension of environmental issues. After a sketch of urban pollution problems and of tools for economic analysis, the notion of urban sustainability will be advocated as a meaningful analytical and policy concept. Next, the main focus of this paper will be on a typological approach to urban sustainability issues on the basis of three characteristic angles, viz. strong and weak sustainability, absolute and relative decoupling and the spatial ecological footprint. Various methodological issues will also be discussed, while the paper will conclude with some perspectives on policy issues. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

公众态度和机构监督对大气污染的影响

虽然以往对于环境库兹涅兹曲线（EKC）的研究中考虑了正式制度因素如政府机构监督,但是较少考虑非正式制度因素.本文重点检验两种制度情境的影响,微观层面的环境态度形成的非正式制度以及宏观层面的环保机构监督形成的正式制度对大气污染排放量的影响.基于CGSS2010-2013和2015年的数据库,从中提取出体现环境态度的问题,将其赋值指标化后,作为制度情境纳入环境方程.经过公开数据的收集,得到我国26个省份2010-2014年5年的面板数据.通过固定效应和随机效应模型,发现机构监督与人均GDP的交互项对氮氧化物、烟（粉）尘、二氧化硫排放都有影响,但是公众态度与人均GDP的交互项只对烟（粉）尘排放有影响,从而对不同制度情境下的环境库兹涅兹曲线进行了探索.     

宝鸡市经济增长与环境空气综合污染指数关系研究

文章以空气综合污染指数法分析了宝鸡市2006年-2011年的环境空气质量状况,分析结果表明宝鸡市环境空气质量逐年变好。以人均GDP为经济指标,以空气综合污染指数为环境指标,建立经济增长与环境空气质量之间的计量模型,进行环境库兹涅茨曲线实证研究。研究结果表明,宝鸡市经济增长和环境空气质量的关系符合库兹涅茨曲线"拐点"后的下降部分。证明该市2006年-2011年的环境空气质量与人均GDP处于良性发展状态。