MULTIPLE CRITERIA SCREENING OF A LARGE WATER POLICY SUBSET SELECTION PROBLEM1

ABSTRACT: A new screening approach is applied to a large‐scale multiple criteria water management problem to remove actions that cannot possibly be in the best subset. An inherent advantage of the approach is its ability to identify inferior actions by examining them individually, rather than within subsets. In a case study involving the selection of actions to address high water levels in the Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence Basin, two statistical indicators, the mode and the mean, are used to aggregate the opinions of experts and representatives of interest groups on the impacts of actions according to various criteria. Application of the screening approach shows that some of the proposed actions can be removed as they can never be in the optimal subset, thereby reducing the size of the problem.     

A method for assessing environmental risk: A case study of Green Bay,Lake Michigan,USA

The Science Advisory Board of the US Environmental Protection Agency has recommended that risk reduction strategies become the centerpiece of environmental protection. The goal in developing such strategies is to identify opportunities for greatest reduction of ecological risks. This is a perspective that is significantly more comprehensive than the traditional focus on human health risks arising from environmental degradation. The identification of ecological risks upon which environmental protection efforts should be focused requires an ecological risk assessment methodology that is based on anthropogenic stressors affecting an ecosystem and a set of impaired use criteria. A methodology based on this concept is developed and discussed in this article. The methodology requires that risk values be assigned to each ecosystem stressor-impaired use pair that reflect the degree to which the given stressor contributes to ecosystem risk as measured by the given impaired use criterion. Once these data are available, mathematical analyses based on concepts from fuzzy set theory are performed to obtain a ranking of ecosystem stressors. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a case study involving Green Bay of Lake Michigan. A workshop was held in which 11 persons with extensive knowledge of the Green Bay ecosystem determined risk values through a group-consensus process. The analytical portion of the methodology was then used to rank the ecosystem risks (stressors) from several perspectives, including prevention management and remediation management. The overall conclusion of the workshop participants was that the fuzzy set decision model is a useful and effective methodology for differentiating environmental risk.     

Assessing Risk in Operational Decisions Using Great Lakes Probabilistic Water Level Forecasts

/ A method adapted from the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction technique is applied retrospectively to three Great Lakes case studies to show how risk assessment using probabilistic monthly water level forecasts could have contributed to the decision-mak-ing process. The first case study examines the 1985 International Joint Commission (IJC) decision to store water in Lake Superior to reduce high levels on the downstream lakes. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron and used with riparian inundation value functions to assess the relative impacts of the IJC's decision on riparian interests for both lakes. The second case study evaluates the risk of flooding at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and the need to implement flood-control projects if Lake Michigan levels were to continue to rise above the October 1986 record. The third case study quantifies the risks of impaired municipal water works operation during the 1964-1965 period of extreme low water levels on Lakes Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Further refinements and other potential applications of the probabilistic forecast technique are discussed.KEY WORDS: Great Lakes; Water levels; Forecasting; Risk; Decision making     

Aquatic Nuisance Species in the New York State Canal and Hudson River Systems and the Great Lakes Basin: An Economic and Environmental Assessment

A total of 154 aquatic alien species have invaded the New York State Canal and Hudson River systems and a total of 162 aquatic species have invaded the Great Lakes Basin. Some of these invasive species are causing significant damage and control costs in both aquatic ecosystems. In the New York State Canal and Hudson River systems, the nonindigenous species are causing an estimated 500 million dollars in economic losses each year. The economic and environmental situation in the Great Lakes Basin is far more serious from nonindigenous species, with losses estimated to be about 5.7 billion dollars per year. Commercial and sport fishing suffer the most from the biological invasions, with about 400 million dollars in losses reported for the New York State Canal and Hudson River systems and 4.5 billion dollars in losses reported for the Great Lakes Basin.     

Assessment of PAHs in water and fish tissues from Great Bitter and El Temsah lakes,Suez Canal,as chemical markers of pollution sources

Sea water and fish tissue samples were collected from nine sampling stations from the Great Bitter and El Temsah lakes in the Suez Canal and analysed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH). The compositions of PAH determined in the dissolved fraction of sea water were measured in order to use them as chemical markers for identifying different sources of PAH pollution in this region. PAHs determined in fish tissues were measured for comparison with human health standards as consumption. The total mean PAHs concentrations in the sea water samples ranged from 0.28 to 39.57 μg l^?1 with an overall mean of 10.78 and 12.38 μg l^?1 for El Temsah and Bitter Lakes water, respectively. Total PAHs fractions recorded in muscle tissues of all different Osteicthyes fishes collected from Great Bitter lakes ranged from 5.8 to 218.5 μg g^?1 with an overall mean of 57.98 μg g^?1 during all seasons. However, they ranged from 68 to 623 μg g^?1 with an overall mean of 87.69 μg g^?1 recorded in El Temsah lake during four seasons (2003–2004). Benzo(a)pyrene was the most dominant PAHs found in the sea water samples from both lakes with an average concentration of 3.8 μ g l^?1. Dibenzo(a,h)anthracene (DBA) was the most dominant PAHs recorded in fish samples. A maximum of 533 μg g^?1 of DBA was recorded in Dahbana sp. collected from Bitter lakes during January 2004. However, a maximum of 68.7 μ g g^?1 was recorded in Liza carinata species collected from El Temsah lake during July, 2004. The simultaneous occurrence of isomer ratios PHE/ANT<10 for all stations indicated that the major PAH input to water was from combustion of fossil fuel (pyrolytic source). The average ratios were 1.21 and 12.9 during winter (January 2004) and 4.3 and 8.63 during spring (April 2004) for all water samples of Great Bitter lakes and El Temsah lake, respectively. In addition, the present data demonstrate that PAHs from fossil fuel sources (MW<178) were the least significant source of PAHs in this region.     

Evaluation of biological water purification functions of inland lakes using an aquatic ecosystem model

An effective measure to cope with eutrophication of lakes is to remove nutrients that can cause algal blooming by taking advantage of natural water purification processes. Here the term “purification” is defined, in a wide sense, as the potential role of a water body to contribute to the reduction of pollutants and thus controlling eutrophication. Also regarded as a kind of ecological regulating services, biological purification involves various processes concerning seasonal nutrient fixation, such as uptake by aquatic macrophytes, biofouling onto foliage substrates, feeding by organisms in higher trophic level, and eternal loss or removal of substance from the water. In order to evaluate the water purification ability, a numerical lake ecosystem model highlighting the role of macrophyte colonies in the shore zone was developed and applied to Lakes Suwa, Kasumi and Biwa, as well as five small lakes attached to Lake Biwa.     

TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON GREAT LAKES WATER BALANCE STUDIES1

ABSTRACT. Beginning of month water temperature profiles are estimated for each lake. These water temperature profiles along with surface water temperatures are used to determine the effects of thermal expansion and contraction of water on the net basin supply values obtained from water balance studies using end of month lake levels. It is demonstrated that net basin supply values (equivalent to precipitation on the lake minus the evaporation from the lake plus the runoff into the lake) obtained from water balance studies without accounting for the thermal expansion and contraction of water may be in error by as much as 100 percent during some months for each lake.     

Coupling ecosystem science with management: A Great Lakes perspective from Green Bay,Lake Michigan,USA

Continued resource degradation in various areas of the Great Lakes has led to doubts of the adequacy of conventional science and management approaches. The need for a more holistic approach, identified as an ecosystem approach, appears now to be more widely accepted although progress with implementation is slow. We argue here that ecosystem science is an integral part of an ecosystem approach and is a prerequisite to effective management planning.One of the problems of implementing an ecosystem approach is forging the link between ecosystem based research and management. For Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA, certain structural and functional qualities of the ecosystem have been used to define operational guides and to formulate management objectives. These objectives are being utilized in the development of a remedial action plan for Green Bay.Deceased 5 February 1986.     

PROJECTED INCREASES IN MUNICIPAL WATER USE IN THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO CO2-INDUCED CLIMATIC CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: Two scenarios of CO₂-induced climatic change are used to estimate changes in water use for a number of municipalities in the Great Lakes region of Canada and the United States. Both scenarios, based on General Circulation Models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), project warmer temperatures for the region. Using regression models based on monthly potential evapotranspiration for individual cities, it is projected that annual per capita water use will increase by a small amount, which will probably have only a marginal effect on water supplies in the Great Lakes basin. This method could also be used to assess the potential impacts of CO₂-induced climatic change on water use by the agriculture and power sectors, as well as the effectiveness of water policy initiatives, such as price changes. More work is needed to project water use during peak periods (warm dry spells), which may occur more frequently in a 2 × CO₂ climate in this region.