不同设障年限沙丘土壤粒径和有机碳分布特征

为探讨沙柳沙障对毛乌素沙地土壤粒径和SOC(土壤有机碳)的影响,选取流动沙丘、设障2和7 a的半固定和固定沙丘为研究对象,利用多重分形理论分析不同设障年限沙丘PSD(土壤粒径分布)(以φ计)和w(SOC)的分布特征. 结果表明:设置沙障后,φ(黏粒)、φ(粉粒)与φ(极细砂)增加,φ(细砂)与φ(中砂)下降;土壤粒径的多重分形参数D₁/D₀(D₁为PSD均匀性程度,D₀为PSD宽度)和~f()谱图可以反映沙丘土壤PSD的宽度与均匀性程度,随着设障年限延长,PSD的D₁/D₀均小于流动沙丘,土壤中细粒物质显著增多. D₀表现为设障7 a沙丘(1.01)>流动沙丘(1.00)>设障2 a沙丘(0.93),D₁表现为流动沙丘(0.91)>设障2 a沙丘(0.88)>设障7 a沙丘(0.65). w(SOC)随着设障年限的延长而显著增加,设障7 a沙丘与其他2类沙丘间w(SOC)差异显著;多重分形参数可以表征土壤养分状况与流沙防治状况,设障沙丘上部、下部的w(SOC)与PSD的D₁/D₀之间有明显的相关关系,设障沙丘上部、下部D₁/D₀间呈明显负相关,设障沙丘中部D₁/D₀之间则呈正相关,流动沙丘各部位w(SOC)与D₁/D₀间无显著相关关系.      

Natural resource depletion and the economic performance of local districts: suggestions from a within-country analysis

SUMMARY

Studying the interactions among ecological factors and economic performance measured at the local scale is necessary to suggest policies able to mitigate natural resource depletion in complex ecosystems, like those in the Mediterranean region. The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship among natural resource depletion due to land degradation (LD) and some economic characteristics of local labour systems in Italy, a country where many areas, especially southern regions, are vulnerable. LD was estimated using an environmental sensitive area index, covering the national territory at a fine scale, which takes into account ecological factors such as climate, soil and vegetation. Economic indicators used here consider per capita income, land productivity, production and labour productivity by sector (agriculture, industry and services). A regression analysis was built-up at the LLS scale using an index change over time (1990–2000) as dependent variable and economic variables as predictors. A principal component analysis (PCA) was carried out to synthesise the outputs of the regression analysis. Results indicate a negative relationship among per capita income and LD over the whole study area. However, other variables showed a significant correlation with the dependent variable, highlighting the importance of local factors to increase land vulnerability. In order to clarify the contribution of economic factors to natural resource depletion it is necessary to drive integrate policies to combat LD in dry Mediterranean areas.     

Response of ecological storage and conservation to land use transformation: A case study of a mining town in China

Rapid land use transformation shaped by agriculture, industrialization and population urbanization has a great influence on ecological environment. Based on theory of ecosystem service functions, this study aims at revealing the response of ecological storage and conservation to each unit area of land use transformation. Taking Cishan Town, a mining town in China, as a case study, this paper estimates the “past-present-future” ecological storage impacted by the process, result and possibility of land use transformation. The local land use and industrial distribution show that the active areas of land use transformation are also the areas of concentration of human (industrial) activities. Ecological storage shows the different responses to land use ways. And then this study combines the ecological storage indices with the indices of ecosystem pattern and land condition into the“5A” framework (active state, active degree, active possibility, active balance and active condition) for grading ecological conservation, and then assigns all regions of Cishan Town into different grades through membership functions for complex mapping of ecological conservation. The research results show that the ecological conservation in Cishan goes toward two extreme grades (best grade and worst grade). Uneven and unbalanced land use transformation is the main cause of that. Hence, rational and timely reflection of impact of land use transformation on ecological storage and conservation can assist land use planners and local government in adjusting land use ways and balancing regional ecology and economy.     

Using an individual-based model to quantify scale transition in demographic rate functions: Deaths in a coral reef fish

Scientifically informed population management requires quantitatively accurate demographic rate functions that apply at the spatial scale at which populations are actually managed, but practical constraints confine most field measurements of such functions to small study plots. This paper employs an individual-based population growth model to extrapolate the death rate function in a well-studied coral reef fish, the bridled goby Coryphopterus glaucofraenum, from the scale of coral reef “cells” at which it was measured to the larger scale of an entire coral reef. Density dependence in the whole-reef function actually proves stronger than in the local function because high goby density occasionally arises in local patches with few refuges from predators, producing very high mortality there. This IBM-based approach extends the reach of scale transition theory by examining considerably more realistic models than standard analytical methods can presently handle.     

Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness

Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.     

Integrated assessment of agricultural policies with dynamic land use change modelling

With about half of its territory being farmed, agriculture is the main land use in the European Union (EU). As over 10% of the total EU manufacturing output comes from the agri-food sector, it also is an economic factor of great importance. Moreover, EU policy in this sector has far-reaching consequences ranging from the EU's status as a global trade partner to landscape preservation and development. The LUMOCAP Policy Support System is targeted towards policy makers in the European Commission (EC) and its Member States (MS) and aims to provide support in the field of sustainable agricultural and rural development. To this end it incorporates an integrated model with socio-economic and bio-physical processes, operating at different spatial scales. For supporting integrated assessment, a large number of policy levers is included as inputs for these models and outputs are transformed into policy-relevant social, economic and environmental indicators. The whole system is framed in a flexible, modular and easy to use software package that is useable for process experts and policy-analysts alike.This paper describes the integrated model, the individual models and a first calibration of the system. It demonstrates the system's behaviour for typical scenario runs and concludes with a reflection on the current status of the system and some recommendations for further development.     

Explaining human settlement patterns in a recreational lake district: Vilas County,Wisconsin, USA

Lakeshore development in Vilas County, northern Wisconsin (USA) is heterogeneous, ranging from lakes that are surrounded by homes and commercial establishments to lakes that have no buildings on their shorelines. Development in this recreational area has increased, and since the 1960s over half of new homes have been built on the lakeshore. We examined building density around lakes in relationship to 11 variables, including in-lake, shoreline, and social characteristics. Buildings in many parts of northern Wisconsin tend to be concentrated around shorelines; in Vilas County 61% of all medium-sized buildings (our proxy for residential development) on private land were ≤100 m of a lake. The probability of development on a lake was largely related to lake surface area, with larger, more accessible lakes showing a higher probability of development. Building density along shorelines varied with travel cost, lake surface area, presence of wetlands, and extent of public land ownership. Building density was greater on larger, more accessible lakes that were surrounded by forest (as opposed to wetlands) and public lands. Gaining a more precise understanding of human settlement patterns can help direct planning and resource protection efforts to lakes most likely to experience future development.     

Changes in Land Cover and Subsequent Effects on Lower Fraser Basin Ecosystems from 1827 to 1990

/ European settlement began in the Lower Fraser Basin (LFB) inwestern British Columbia in 1827 and has impacted the basin ecosystem in anumber of ways, especially affecting the vegetation. Using previouslypublished data, air photos, and other historical material for the area,estimates of land cover were made for the years prior to 1827 and for 1930and 1990. The area of coniferous forest changed from 71% prior to 1827to 50% in 1930 to 54% in 1990. However, prior to 1827, only27% of the forest would have been immature (<120 years old), while40% would have been immature in 1930 and 73% of the forest wasimmature in 1990. The amount of wetland area decreased from 10% to1% of the study area while urban and agricultural area increased to26% of the study area by 1990. The changes in land cover have hadadverse effects on soil, water, and air quality; aquatic life; and plant andanimal populations. Estimates of changes in net primary production andorganic soil carbon suggest a decline over the past 170 years, although thelatter rate of decrease has slowed since 1930. As human populations in theLower Fraser Basin continue to increase, the quality of air, water, and soilwill continue to decline unless measures are taken.KEY WORDS: Human impact; Land cover; Net primary productivity; Organiccarbon in soil     

Planning in the countryside

The author considers the present greater awareness of the needs of the countryside brought about through public debate of the issues involved. The nature of countryside policies is considered and recent developments described. The paper concludes that much more positive planning is being undertaken to conserve the countryside, whilst allowing rural development to take place.