景观锚链的近海大气腐蚀调查研究

在2007年3月对暴露于湛江观海长廊近8年的景观锚链进行了大气腐蚀调查和研究.现场调查结果显示,各站点锚链均受到不同程度的腐蚀,锈层呈黄褐色,站点2和站点3的锈层易剥落.锚链的扫描电镜结果表明,外表面锈层疏松多孔,并伴有大量的裂纹,内表面局部存在大量诱导腐蚀发生的微孔,表面锈层中均含有S元素和Cl元素.红外光谱分析结果显示,锚链表面锈层均有α-FeOOH.大气湿热气候、高含量的Cl-和H2S是锚链钢严重腐蚀及发生块状开裂的主要因素.     

地下水中病原菌及其快速检测技术研究进展

全世界尤其在发展中国家由地下水病原菌导致的环境安全问题日益频发,成为影响人群健康的重要因素。传统的病原菌检测技术存在费时、灵敏度低以及难以准确定量等问题,无法满足对地下水中种类日益增多的病原菌的有效监测。近年来,地下水中病原菌检测技术不断发展,其中聚合酶链反应技术、生物芯片及生物传感器等检测技术成为研究热点,在这些技术的基础上,以能实现微型便携、快速灵敏、准确特异和经济方便为目的的新材料和不同技术手段的整合技术成为地下水中病原菌检测发展的新方向。文章对近年来病原菌快速检测新技术进行综述,以期为受污染的地下水病原菌的有效监测和控制提供技术支持。     

Spatial modelling of the probability of obtaining a detectable concentration of ammonia in Moreton Bay, Australia

Ammonia is an important water quality variable, which in excess, can be detrimental to waterways and their ecosystems. In the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program in South-east Queensland ammonia is monitored monthly, however, often more than 50% of the ammonia observations in Moreton Bay are below detection limit, making it difficult to draw useful inferences. In this paper a clipped Gaussian random field is used to spatially model and map the probability of detectable concentration of ammonia. The methodology is applied to the Moreton Bay samples collected in February 2005. The results suggest that for this month the oceanic impacted areas have higher probability of detectable ammonia concentration than the areas closer to the main sources of anthropogenic inputs.     

基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖流域平原区景观格局动态模拟预测

利用“3S”技术及CA-Markov模型,按照是否实施跨流域调水工程2种预案情况,以2005年为起始时刻,对新疆艾比湖流域平原区2020年景观格局进行模拟预测。结果显示：在调水工程未实施的情况下,2020年研究区的生态环境将进一步恶化,其突出表现为艾比湖湖泊水面将持续萎缩、裸露湖底盐漠面积进一步扩大,水资源短缺及生态环境恶化的结果将严重制约研究区社会经济的发展;在调水工程实施的情况下,2020年研究区内艾比湖湖泊水面将稳定增加至800 km^2以上、裸露湖底盐漠面积相应有所减少,生态环境恶化趋势得到改善,区域水资源短缺问题将有所缓解,可有效地促进研究区内社会经济的发展。     

Use of Market Data to Assess Bushmeat Hunting Sustainability in Equatorial Guinea

Abstract: Finding an adequate measure of hunting sustainability for tropical forests has proved difficult. Many researchers have used urban bushmeat market surveys as indicators of hunting volumes and composition, but no analysis has been done of the reliability of market data in reflecting village offtake. We used data from urban markets and the villages that supply these markets to examine changes in the volume and composition of traded bushmeat between the village and the market (trade filters) in Equatorial Guinea. We collected data with market surveys and hunter offtake diaries. The trade filters varied depending on village remoteness and the monopoly power of traders. In a village with limited market access, species that maximized trader profits were most likely to be traded. In a village with greater market access, species for which hunters gained the greatest income per carcass were more likely to be traded. The probability of particular species being sold to market also depended on the capture method and season. Larger, more vulnerable species were more likely to be supplied from less‐accessible catchments, whereas there was no effect of forest cover or human population density on probability of being sold. This suggests that the composition of bushmeat offtake in an area may be driven more by urban demand than the geographic characteristics of that area. In one market, traders may have reached the limit of their geographical exploitation range, and hunting pressure within that range may be increasing. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to model the trade filters that bias market data, which opens the way to developing more robust market‐based sustainability indices for the bushmeat trade.     

BAYESIAN MODELS OF FORECASTED TIME SERIES1

Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) combines a prior distribution, which describes the natural uncertainty about the realization of a hydrologic process, with a likelihood function, which describes the uncertainty in categorical forecasts of that process, and outputs a posterior distribution of the process, conditional upon the forecasts. The posterior distribution provides a means of incorporating uncertain forecasts into optimal decision models. We present fundamentals of building BPF for time series. They include a general formulation, stochastic independence assumptions and their interpretation, computationally tractable models for forecasts of an independent process and a first-order Markov process, and parametric representations for normal-linear processes. An example is shown of an application to the annual time series of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasts.     

Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA

This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers.     

都西庙水库生物群落的牧食链结构与渔业利用

都西庙水库初级生产者只有浮游植物,它对太阳能年总辐射量的利用率为0.07%,生态学效率分别为10.5%、0.26%、6.40%,综合鱼产力为17.8g/m~2,各种经济鱼类对浮游植物的能量利用率为0.55%,表明牧食链中能量流动与分配不合理。本文对科学利用和保护该库饵料资源提出了建议。     

论事故与系统危险性的关系

对安全评价中的一些基本概念和参数作了明确的论述,如危险、事故、系统危险性、事故链、固有危险和危险特性、发生事故的难易度与事故概率以及系统可靠度。对澄清当前尚有争论的概念有所帮助,有利于安全评价的顺利进行,也有利于安全科学学科建设。最后对系统危险性的发展趋势作了几点预测。     

青藏铁路列车运行控制系统的安全性分析

分析了青藏铁路中多种不利因素对轨道电路参数的影响 ;提出了在青藏铁路不宜采用现行基于轨道电路的列车运行控制系统 ,而应选择基于通信的列车运行控制系统的理由 ;给出了系统的基本结构及提高系统可靠性的措施 ;与此同时 ,就人们关心的无线传输列车控制数据的可靠性和安全性难题 ,通过建立马尔可夫模型的方法进行了分析