芜湖市生态旅游资源类型与发展模式探讨

近年来,生态旅游高速发展,成为旅游市场发展的主流．为了能使芜湖市的旅游业稳健地发展,走可持续发展道路。在大量调查数据的基础上,利用层次分析法和特尔菲法对芜湖市的生态旅游资源、开发条件和效益功能进行定量分析。总结芜湖市生态旅游资源的特征：发展潜力大;品位低,特色不突出;开发程度低,规模小;经济环境较好,通达性强。由此提出芜湖市的生态旅游发展应该是,不同区域采用相应的生态旅游发展模式。北部为自然和文化生态旅游相结合的模式;东部发展乡村生态旅游发展模式;西部发展文化生态旅游模式;南部发展自然生态旅游模式。在此基础上预测芜湖市旅游发展前景,对芜湖市生态旅游的发展提出了一些建议。     

牛顿（切线）法求极值在估算水质模型参数中的应用

文章根据水环境容量计算条件,建立了适用于中小河河流一维忽略污染物沉降扣弥散作用的数学模型。建立了由实测值与拱型计算值之差的平方构成的目标函数。通过目标函数,把水质模型参数的估算转变成一个单变量函数求极值的问题。本文采用牛顿（切线）法求极值和计算机技术解决了这个单变量函数求极值问题,解决了在有多排污口存在的河段估算污染物衰减系数K值的难题。该办法的使用提高了水环境容量计算的可靠性和准确度。     

长江流域南京段河流非使用价值评估

采用逻辑回归与相关性分析法,探讨影响公众支付意愿的因素及其影响程度。结果表明,政府信任度、个人经济收入、年龄和环保意识4个变量因子对支付与否具有显著影响;受教育程度和环保意识这两个变量因子对支付意愿的高低具有显著影响。     

Quantifying ecological thresholds from response surfaces

Ecological thresholds are abrupt changes of ecological state. While an ecological threshold is a widely accepted concept, most empirical methods detect them in time or across geographic space. Although useful, these approaches do not quantify the direct drivers of threshold response. Causal understanding of thresholds detected empirically requires their investigation in a multi-factor domain containing the direct drivers (often referred to as state space). Here, we present an approach to quantify thresholds from response surfaces modeled empirically in state space. We present two indices of shape attributes measured from response surfaces. The response surfaces are built using a regression method in state space. The indices are threshold strength (T) and diagonality (D). We use 48 simulated response surfaces of different shapes to test the efficacy of the indices in 3D. Our results show that T is sensitive to the steepness of the transition from one state to the next, with various forms of abrupt, centralized thresholds yielding the highest values among the simulated surfaces. D represents the orientation of the response surface or the simultaneous influence of more than one predictor in eliciting the response gradient. Strongly diagonal surfaces have the most diagonal surface area demonstrated by sharply undulating diagonal surfaces. Given that the success of T and D requires a regression method to accurately capture any shape of complex data structure, we also test the accuracy of empirical regression methods known to be tractable with complex data. We test classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest, and non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for binary and continuous responses. We use the 48 simulated response surfaces to test the methods, and we find that prediction accuracy depends on both the T and D of the simulated data for each method. We choose the most accurate method among those we test for capturing any shape of response surface from real data, NPMR. Finally, we use NPMR to build response surfaces and quantify T and D from real ecological data sets. We demonstrate how measuring threshold strength and diagonality from multi-factor response surfaces can advance ecology.     

环境工艺方法论研究——替代法

替代法是重要的科学研究方法,被广泛用于环境工艺的研发和革新过程中。本文论述了环境工艺替代法的理论含义和实际应用,并讨论其哲学内涵。     

An advanced Driller's Method simulator for deepwater well control

Deepwater hydrocarbon reserves play an important role in the global energy industry. The safety issue which is associated with deepwater well control is one of the most crucial aspects during the well design and construction in a drilling scenario. Limited by the narrow drilling window and the long but small choke line, accurate prediction of the wellbore pressure is required to ensure a successful well control operation in deepwater. This paper focuses on the deepwater Driller's Method, developing an advanced simulator to predict the standpipe and choke pressures in deepwater horizontal well killing on the basis of “dynamic” bottom hole pressure. In order to improve the precision of the simulator, circulation temperature, gas expansion and choke line friction loss have been considered in the model. According to the data of a planned horizontal well X-2, the simulation and analysis of the behaviors of the standpipe and choke pressures during the deepwater Driller's Method well killing operation were performed with the proposed simulator. For further understanding the characteristics of the deepwater Driller's Method, it investigated the influence of some engineering parameters on the surface pressures, including seawater depth, horizontal section length, gas kick volume and killing rate. The results demonstrate that the standpipe pressure increases with seawater depth and killing rate; the peak choke pressure increases with seawater depth and gas kick volume; and the horizontal section length has a little impact on the standpipe and choke pressures. In addition, the application of the well killing case in BY-3 well, which is located in the South China Sea, has proved the validity of the simulator.     

上海市“十一五”COD总量控制核查方法探讨

通过对上海市水环境主要污染物总量的分析,从政府管理角度,探讨“十一五”上海市水环境主要污染物总量控制核查方法。主要从污水收集管网建设和污水处理厂建设及运行、重点污染源监管、水环境质量改善三方面入手,通过计划申报、日常监控、实时预警来保证总量控制目标完成,并探讨了核查职责体系和信息发布程序及内容。     

台风持续影响下中山市大气O3污染过程分析

应用三维空气质量模型（Model-3/CMAQ）和积分过程速率（IPR）分析工具对2017年7月22~31日夏季4次台风持续影响下中山市7月首次出现的持续6d的O₃污染事件进行了详细分析,识别了O₃ 8h浓度最大值时段主导的大气物理过程和大气化学过程,并计算了不同源、汇过程对本地O₃浓度的贡献.研究结果表明,污染时段化学过程对O₃的源贡献高于非污染时段,化学过程贡献增加,说明光化学反应过程更加活跃;台风带来的外来气团经过上风向高污染物排放区域时,化学过程贡献显著上升,与非经过高污染物排放区域相比,污染时段的化学过程对中山市O₃源过程的浓度贡献高2.4%~6.5%;污染时段,水平输送对中山市大气O₃源过程的浓度贡献在56.6%~92.6%之间.因此,污染期间强化本地排放源的管控,减少O₃生成贡献的同时,结合区域气团路径分析,精准识别污染协同管控区域,上风向污染物高排放区域实施协同减排措施,实现区域联防联控.     

纳氏试剂光度法测定水中氨氮的质量控制

对影响纳氏试剂光度法测定水中氨氮的有关因素进行了研究和探讨,以提高测定准确度与精密度。     

湖泊碳循环及碳通量的估算方法

湖泊由于其特殊的地理位置,较高的生产力,在碳循环中具有重要作用。作为湖泊营养元素的碳在湖泊水体中的赋存形态主要包括:碳酸盐系统(CO2,CO32-,HCO3-,H2CO3)、溶解态有机碳、生物死亡残体颗粒碳及生物体有机碳等。研究表明包括有机碳和溶解态无机碳在内的全世界湖泊总碳汇为0.077Gt/a,其中对大气的汇达到0.0532Gt/a。湖泊除从地表径流、地下水获得碳以外,还可从空气物质中获得碳。估算及测定水气界面CO2通量的方法主要有:①赖利估算法;②单侧扩散法;③同位素估算法;④涡度相关法;⑤静态箱式法。