Gunnison’s prairie dog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cynomys gunnisoni</Emphasis>): testing the resource dispersion hypothesis

Few studies have experimentally tested the resource dispersion hypothesis (RDH). In this study, I tested whether space use and social organization of Gunnison’s prairie dog responded to changes in the dispersion and abundance of resources. Food manipulations were carried out during the reproductive and nonreproductive seasons across 2 years. Gunnison’s prairie dog adults responded to the experiments by decreasing territory size as food became patchier in space and time. Both males and females modified their home ranges, with no detectable difference between sexes, either prior to or during the experiments. As food became patchier in space and time, the spatial overlap of adults increased, whereas it decreased as food became more evenly dispersed. The average size of a group, defined as those individuals occupying the same territory, did not change significantly as a result of the experiments. Where changes in the composition and size of groups did occur, there was no indication that such changes were sex specific. Results from this study support critical components of the RDH and strongly suggest that patterns of space use and social structure in Gunnison’s prairie dogs are the result of individual responses to resource abundance and distribution.     

Simulating forest succession after blowdown events: The crucial role of space for a realistic management

Ecological patterns vary in space and time. Therefore, when using dynamic models in ecology, the spatial aspect should not be neglected prematurely since it could possibly change the model outcomes to a considerable extent. In view of this problem, we describe here a method how to construct a non-spatial version from a spatially explicit simulation model. The principle idea is to suppress the spatial correlations of cells in a grid in time by continuously re-assigning a random neighbourhood for each cell on the grid. Since this procedure actually eliminates the spatial dimensions, it allows to quantify the unadulterated impact of spatial processes on the model results. To illustrate an important application of this approach in the context of forest management we use a grid-based model that simulates succession of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) at mountainous sites after blowdown events. The output of this model is compared with the results of the deduced non-spatial version of this model regarding the predicted amount of re-growing trees. The non-spatial version dramatically overestimates the number of spruce trees on different microsites. Thus, the uncritical use of the non-spatial model might give reason to wrong management decisions that are based on too optimistic predictions. In practice, this may lead to dangerous situations, especially in mountain forests serving as protection against avalanches and landslides. This example demonstrates the successful applicability of our approach. Our method can be interpreted as a contribution to an extended sensitivity analysis: it analyses the sensitivity of the results due to structural changes of the model. This sensitivity allows one to estimate the redundancy or the necessity of spatially explicit processes in a model with regard to the parsimony principle of modelling. Since our approach is not dependent on special features of the simulation model used here, it is assumed to be applicable for other spatial models, too, and can thus be considered of general interest for a diligent model analysis.     

A resource-based approach to modelling the dynamics of interacting populations

The procedure for modelling the growth of single-species populations [Sakanoue, S., 2007. Extended logistic model for growth of single-species populations. Ecol. Model. 205, 159–168] is improved to be applicable to the study of the dynamics of interacting populations. The improved procedure is based on three assumptions: resource availability changes with population size as a variable, resource supply to populations and population demand for resources are defined as functions of resource availability and population size, and the variables of resource availability and population size shift in the supply function attracted to the demand function. These assumptions are organized into three equations. The equations can generate the dynamics models of plant, herbivore, and detritivore populations, and their own resources. The models can be used to describe prey–predator dynamics. They naturally contain nonlinear terms for the predator’s numerical and functional responses. Depending on the terms, the fluctuations in resource availability and population size stabilize. The three equations can also generate the dynamics models of different populations consuming the same resources. The analysis of zero isoclines of the models shows that a superior population can be simply defined as one with a higher intrinsic rate of natural increase, that a stable coexistence may be realized with the intraspecific interference or the interspecific facilitation of superiors, and that the interspecific interference or the intraspecific facilitation of inferiors may make the coexistence unstable and the inferiors winners depending on their initial population size.     

A system dynamics model for the management of the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve, 1850) in the Bay of Arcachon (France)

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve, 1850) is one of the mollusc species that, driven mainly by the shellfish market industry, has extended throughout the world, far beyond the limits of its original habitat. The Manila clam was introduced into France for aquaculture purposes, between 1972 and 1975. In France, this venerid culture became increasingly widespread and, since 1988, this species has colonised most of the embayments along the French Atlantic coast. In 2004, this development resulted in a fishery of ca. 520 t in Arcachon Bay.     

大空间建筑不同排烟系统作用下的烟气控制效果研究

利用FDS(Fire Dynamics Simulator)分别对自然排烟和机械排烟作用下的中庭火灾烟气控制效果进行了数值模拟研究,自然排烟口的面积分别为中庭地面面积的5.6%、11.3%和22.5%,机械排烟量分别为43182m3/h和102000m3/h,同时改变机械排烟口的位置。通过对比各工况下的竖向温度分布、中庭内温度场、烟气层界面高度来判断不同工况下的排烟效果,并计算得到了相应排烟效率来判断各排烟模式下的排烟有效性。结果显示,中庭内的温度和排烟效率都随排烟量的增大而减小,自然排烟的排烟效率最低,仅为17.9%~21.3%,机械排烟量43182m3/h时的排烟效率最高,可达45%左右。     

Inherently safer sustained casing pressure testing for well integrity evaluation

This paper presents the use of a model to predict sustained casing pressure (SCP), from early pressure buildup data, as a basis for inherently safer well integrity testing. Inherently safer principles aim to eliminate or reduce the hazards by design rather than by using protective features. SCP, a well integrity issue exhibited in many wells, is any measurable pressure that rebuilds after being bled down and attributable to causes other than artificially applied pressure or temperature fluctuations in the well. Intrusion of gas, resulting in SCP, can occur because of poor cement bond in the casing or cement deterioration. Gas entering the annulus migrates to the wellhead and represents a hazard due to increased wellhead pressure and the gas inventory. Compromised well integrity can have catastrophic consequences on both environmental and safety aspects.Most regulations require the monitoring, testing and, eventually, the elimination of SCP. However, test data analysis is predominantly qualitative and limited to arbitrary criteria. Due to the high percentage of wells that present SCP, accurate, safe and preferably fast testing methods are needed. This paper implements an analytical model, rooted in the transport processes and thermodynamics of the system, to predict pressure profiles and gas accumulation during SCP testing from early-time pressure buildup data. The amount of gas accumulated during different testing criteria, being 1) current practices and 2) early diagnostic by the analytical model, is calculated and compared. Results show that using the analytical model as a predictive tool, testing time is reduced significantly, thereby limiting the amount of gas accumulated and reducing the risk. This makes the testing procedure inherently safer as well as less time consuming.     

Quantitative risk assessment of the Italian gas distribution network

European Critical Infrastructures include physical resources, services, information technology facilities, networks and infrastructure assets, which, if disrupted or destroyed would have a serious impact on the health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of the Member States.The gas distribution network is a critical infrastructure and its failure can cause damage to structures and injury to people.The aim of this paper is to analyze and then assess the risk of the Italian high pressure natural gas distribution network.The paper describes an application of a methodology for quantitative risk assessment.Failure frequencies considered in risk calculation were found in the European Gas pipeline Incident data Group (EGIG) database, whereas consequences were computed as a function of pipe diameter and operating pressure for each section of the network. The results of this quantitative risk assessment is the determination of local and social risks for the Italian North East Area.     

Inherent conflicts at the coast

Because choice is conflict, decision-making is necessarily about conflict resolution. Choices are necessary because the options are mutually exclusive but the nature of this inherent conflict varies. Typically, these conflicts are multidimensional. In coasal zones, the complex interactions between systems makes decision-making particularly complex; in particular, environmental interests are themselves frequently in conflict. In making a choice, it is important to determine why that choice is necessary in the first place. There are further conflicts about the objectives to be satisfied by the decision process; between the determination of the best outcome and the best decision process. Social scientists centre upon the requirement for a fair decision process rather than upon seeking an optimum outcome. Unlike physical scientists who seek more and better information, social scientists focus upon the development and maintenance of institutions.     

The vulnerability and resilience of small island developing states in the context of globalization

In spite of the wide diversity in the economic performance of small island developing states (SIDS), the apparent prosperity of several SIDS has entailed a global misrepresentation of the economic situation of these countries. While their vulnerability to natural disasters is not denied, the general risk of economic marginalization that many SIDS face in the context of globalization may not have received sufficient attention. The paper attempts to highlight what matters most in the consideration of the economic vulnerability of SIDS and in the debate to prevent their marginalization. It examines the main types of external shocks to which SIDS are vulnerable, and discusses the economic handicaps that are fundamental causes of this vulnerability. Economic specialization (with the predominance of international trade in services) is then a central notion in the analysis of island vulnerability: a better specialization, which may involve diversification and always implies greater international competitiveness, can reduce the exposure or vulnerability of SIDS to external shocks, and induce greater economic stability in these countries. Hence the importance of developing policies to circumvent the specific handicaps of islands and facilitate the realization of new trading opportunities through an emulative use of globalization forces.     

Spatial systems approach to sustainable development: A conceptual framework

Even though “sustainable development” seems to have emerged as the development paradigm of the 1990s, a great deal of vagueness still surrounds the meaning, definition, and theoretical underpinnings of the concept. There is also a general lack of emphasis on the spatial dimension of sustainable development when developing relevant conceptual or environmental accounting frameworks. In clarifying the concept, this article proposes a definition that explicitly incorporates the temporal as well as the spatial dimension of sustainability. It also develops a logically consistent conceptual framework for the analysis and evaluation of sustainable development, following a spatial systems approach. Five interconnected aspatial subsystems or subsets of a spatial system are identified and their respective operational dimensions discussed. A proposed composite index calleddegree of stainable development (DSD) and its five component indicators are also outlined. The difficulties involved in operationalizing the DSD measure and the conceptual framework are noted, and the various tasks that need to be undertaken in this regard are specified. It is concluded that future research utilizing the proposed conceptual framework should not only foster the development of appropriate methodologies for the comparative evaluation of sustainable development at global, national, or regional scales, but also offer insights to appropriate decision makers at various levels regarding available options and alternative actions for the healthy development of their respective societies.