灾害经济损失评估理论与方法探讨

首先根据自然灾害经济损失的特点，对自然经济损失进行了比较合理的界定和分类，在此基础上着重对自然灾害直接经济损失和间接经济损失的评估理论和方法进行了探讨。     

自然灾害区划若干理论问题的探讨

自然灾害区划是对灾害的区域差异性的认识和分类评估并按一定标准在空间上进行划分的过程,是进行灾害宏观研究和预报的重要方法之一。本文阐述了灾害区划的理论基础、原则、指标、方法与程序,并论述了灾害区划的主要类型。     

遥感与地理信息系统在自然灾害研究中的应用

灾害是人类面临的最严重的威胁。本文从现代遥感技术与地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）的构成和特点出发，论述了遥感与ＧＩＳ技术在减灾活动，包括预警、评价和辅助决策中的重要作用。在综合考虑现有各项技术的基础上，设计了以遥感信息为基础建立自然灾害信息系统的总体设想．     

A multi-echelon supply chain model for municipal solid waste management system

In this paper, a multi-echelon multi-period solid waste management system (MSWM) was developed by inoculating with multi-echelon supply chain. Waste managers, suppliers, industries and distributors could be engaged in joint strategic planning and operational execution. The principal of MSWM system is interactive planning of transportation and inventory for each organization in waste collection, delivery and disposal. An efficient inventory management plan for MSWM would lead to optimized productivity levels under available capacities (e.g., transportation and operational capacities). The applicability of the proposed system was illustrated by a case with three cities, one distribution and two waste disposal facilities. Solutions of the decision variable values under different significant levels indicate a consistent trend. With an increased significant level, the total generated waste would be decreased, and the total transported waste through distribution center to waste to energy and landfill would be decreased as well.     

STREAM QUALITY IMPACTS OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN A NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS BASIN1

ABSTRACT: A variety of management options are used to minimize losses of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and other potential pollutants from agricultural source areas. There is little information available, however, to indicate the effectiveness of these options (sometimes referred to as Best Management Practices, or BMPs) on basin scales. The objective of this study was to assess the water quality effectiveness of BMPs implemented in the 3240 ha Lincoln Lake basin in Northwest Arkansas. Land use in the basin was primarily forest (34 percent) and pasture (56 percent), with much of the pasture being regularly treated with animal manures. The BMPs were oriented toward minimizing the impact of confined animal operations in the basin and included nutrient management, dead bird composter construction, and other practices. Stream flow samples (representing primarily base flow conditions) were collected bi-weekly from five sites within the basin from September 1991 through April 1994 and analyzed for nitrate N (NO₃-N), ammonia N (NH₃-N), total Kjeldahl N (TKN), ortho-P (PO₄-P), total P (TP), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and total suspended solids (TSS). Mean concentrations of PO₄-P, TP, and TSS were highest for subbasins with the highest proportions of pasture land use. Concentrations of NH₃-N, TKN, and COD decreased significantly with time (35–75 percent/year) for all sub-basins, while concentrations of other parameters were generally stable. The declines in analysis parameter concentrations are attributed to the implementation of BMPs in the basin since (a) the results are consistent with what would be expected for the particular BMPs implemented and (b) no other known activities in the basin would have caused the declines in analysis parameter concentrations.     

EVALUATION OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR CONTROLLING NONPOINT POLLUTION FROM SILVICULTURAL OPERATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Fifteen years of streamflow and water quality data were evaluated to determine the effectiveness of Best Management Practices (BMP's) in controlling nonpoint source pollution from an 110. acre commercial clearcut located in the Ridge and Valley Province of central Pennsylvania. The analyses addressed both short- and long-term changes in the physical and chemical properties and the hydro-logic regime of the stream draining this 257-acre watershed. Overall, the BMP's employed on this commercial clearcut were very effective in preventing serious deterioration of stream quality as a result of forest harvesting. Although statistically significant increases in nitrate and potassium concentrations and temperature and turbidity levels were measured the first two years following harvesting, the increases were relatively small and, with the exception of turbidity, within drinking water standards. Nevertheless, such increases may violate EPA's anti-degradation policy. Nitrate and potassium concentrations and turbidity levels remained above pre-harvesting levels for as long as nine years following harvesting. Clearcutting also significantly increased water yield, which in turn initially lowered the concentrations of most solutes because of dilution. Increased water yields returned to pro-harvesting levels within four years as a result of rapid regrowth. The export of some ions increased; however, the increased export appeared to be insufficient to affect site fertility. Implementation of periodic post-harvest inspections of harvested areas, increasing the width of the buffer zone, and utilizing buffer zones on all perennial and intermittent channels would reduce further impacts of silvi-cultural activities on water quality.     

自然灾害系统模型——Ⅰ:理论部分

本文对孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体和灾情给予了定量研究,建立了自然灾害系统模型。该模型不但为灾情计算提供了一个统一的标准,而且对成灾的因果关系表述得十分清楚。它是一个综合性强和操作简单的实用模型,也使灾情评估和成灾机制得到统一。     

减轻自然灾害系统工程初议

本文用大量数据阐述了我国主要自然灾害所面临的严峻形势;进而分析了减轻自然灾害的可能性和必要性;并从系统科学和综合研究的角度出发,提出了减轻自然灾害系统工程的任务和内容。     

福建省经济增长的资源环境代价评估

本文应用“含资源与环境项目的社会会计矩阵”（简写为SAMRE）分析1991－1999年福建省资源净产值、环境净产值和真实储蓄值。计算结果显示，福建省资源净产值与环境净产值各年损失幅度为11．17－62．05亿元，平均占全省GDP的2．1％。真实国民储蓄比传统国民核算体系的净储蓄减少1．48－69．4亿元，占净储蓄的1．11％－12．0％。分析表明自然资源损失与环境污染成为福建省经济总量增长的重大代价。其发展呈弱可持续性特征。此外，分析结果也显示，近年来资源与环境净产值损失占全省GDP的比重总体呈下降趋势，真实储蓄比重趋向上升。     

陕西省近10年自然灾害的损失规律

本文主要根据自然灾害损失资料,对陕西近10a自然灾害损失时空规律、各灾种特点、损失结构进行了较详尽讨论,并进行了损失强度分区。