Beach topography mapping—a comparsion of techniques

A comparison of current techniques for measuring elevations in the beach and near-shore zones is presented. Techniques considered include traditional methods such as ground survey along transects and airborne stereophotogrammetry, and also newer methods based on remote sensing such as airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR). The approach taken was to identify a representative group of users of beach elevation data, elicit their requirements regarding these data, then assess how well the different methods met these requirements on both technical and financial grounds. Potential users of beach height measurements include those concerned with coastal defence, coastal environmental management economic exploitation of the intertidal zone, and coastal flood forecasting. Three test areas in the UK were identified covering a range of such users and also different beach types. A total of 17 basic user requirements were elicited. For each requirement each method was scored according to the degree to which it could meet the requirement. Total scores were calculated and each method ranked. This was undertaken for all the requirements together, for a subset relating to survey of narrow beaches, and for a subset relating to survey of wide beaches. Approximate costs were also established for the top six methods. Airborne stereophotogrammetry proved to be the best method technically, but was also the most expensive. Ground survey provides very good technical performance on narrower beaches at moderate cost. Airborne LiDAR can achieve good technical performance on both narrow and wide beaches at lower cost than ground survey. The satellite-based waterline method was also inexpensive and gave good results on wide beaches. An overall conclusion is that, while the traditional methods of ground survey and airborne stereophotogrammetry remain the best for engineering-related surveys requiring high levels of accuracy, airborne LiDAR in particular looks set to have a significant impact on beach survey for applications for which a vertical accuracy of 20 cm is acceptable, provided that its technology evolves satisfactorily.     

环境承载力与环境扶贫

随着人类环境意识的觉醒与升华，引发了对自身生存环境的更深层次的思考。本文就环境承载力的内涵与外延以及它既会造成贫困又可解脱贫困的关键作用进行了研究和探讨。     

An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models

Problem: Motorcycles constitute about 19% of all motorized vehicles in Singapore and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 40% of total fatalities. Method: In this paper, an ordered probit model is used to examine factors that affect the injury severity of motorcycle accidents and the severity of damage to the vehicle for those crashes. Nine years of motorcycle accident data were obtained for Singapore through police reports. These data included categorical assessments of the severity of accidents based on three levels. Damage severity to the vehicle was also assessed and categorized into four levels. Categorical data of this type are best analyzed using ordered probit models because they require no assumptions regarding the ordinality of the dependent variable, which in this case is the severity score. Various models are examined to determine what factors are related to increased injury and damage severity of motorcycle accidents. Results: Factors found to lead to increases in the probability of severe injuries include the motorcyclist having non-Singaporean nationality, increased engine capacity, headlight not turned on during daytime, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects, driving during early morning hours, having a pillion passenger, and when the motorcyclist is determined to be at fault for the accident. Factors leading to increased probability of vehicle damage include some similar factors but also show some differences, such as less damage associated with pedestrian collisions and with female drivers. In addition, it was also found that both injury severity and vehicle damage severity levels are decreasing over time.     

Application of a hydroxylamine nitrate stability model to plutonium purification process equipment

A mathematical model that predicts hydroxylamine nitrate (HAN) (NH₂OH·HNO₃) stability is applied to aqueous solutions containing HAN, nitric acid and plutonium that are used in plutonium purification processes. The model estimates the stability of these solutions with respect to the rapid, hazardous, autocatalytic reaction of HAN with nitric acid that generates heat and gas. It also accounts for reaction kinetics, temperature changes, gas generation rates, solution volumes and flow rates, and distribution of plutonium and nitric acid between aqueous and organic phases. The model is applied to three typical process vessels used in solvent extraction purification of plutonium – a countercurrent aqueous/organic plutonium stripping column, an oxidation column used for HAN and hydrazine destruction, and a plutonium rework tank. Both normal and off-normal process scenarios are modeled. Two of the off-normal scenarios lead to the rapid autocatalytic reaction of HAN with nitric acid where heat and gas are generated and that could lead to damage of the process equipment and/or release of hazardous plutonium solution from the vessel. In these two cases, stationary aqueous solutions containing HAN, Pu(III), and nitric acid were allowed to slowly react until conditions for the autocatalytic reaction were reached.     

基于灰色-马尔科夫模型的我国能源消费结构优化调整

本文以我国1997—2010年的消费结构数据为基础,运用灰色-马尔科夫链模型对数据进行了分析和预测,然后通过MATLAB预测了我国未来十年的能源消费结构,结合我国政府承诺的非化石能源目标对模型预测结果做了进一步的修正,最后根据能源发展趋势给出了能源消费结构的优化策略。     

基于ELM网络的污水处理COD值预报模型研究

通过对沈阳某污水处理厂的叶轮气浮法污水工艺进行研究分析,得知其过程具有多变量、非线性和时变等特性,这些特性对于处理后水质的COD值准确检测非常重要。COD值的在线检测设备通常有一定滞后,影响了现场对水质的控制和提高,为此采用ELM网络来建立COD值的预报模型,并通过MATLAB软件进行了仿真研究,仿真结果表明该模型具有较好的预报效果。     

Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of environmental management studies. Severe gas H₂S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor understanding and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation delays. It is important to evaluate the real concentration of H₂S, especially in complex terrain. Traditional experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain, especially in low-lying areas where the gas accumulates. This study, using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan “Pu Guang gas field” as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions, applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up technique of puffs to simulate the H₂S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain area. The results showed that the H₂S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind direction, and due to the obstruction of the mountain’s body, it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over, flowed around submitted jumping type distribution. The mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point, the better the diffusing condition of pollutant, the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H₂S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area, synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point, thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher terrain. According to simulation results, the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.     

生态足迹模型修正的初步探讨

针对生态足迹应用于区域可持续发展评价的不足之处,采取理论拓展、与其他指标结合、引入基于时间尺度的定量指标等方法,对生态足迹模型的修正进行了初步探讨,为生态足迹模型更好地应用于区域可持续性评价提供了科学指导,为进一步的实例研究提供了理论依据。     

Mapping Outlets of Iowa Flood Center and National Water Center River Networks for Hydrologic Model Comparison

River networks based on Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data differ depending on the DEM resolution, accuracy, and algorithms used for network extraction. As spatial scale increases, the differences diminish. This study explores methods that identify the scale where networks obtained by different methods agree within some margin of error. The problem is relevant for comparing hydrologic models built around the two networks. An example is the need to compare streamflow prediction from the Hillslope Link Model (HLM) operated by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) and the National Water Model (NWM) operated by the National Water Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The HLM uses landscape decomposition into hillslopes and channel links while the NWM uses the NHDPlus dataset as its basic spatial support. While the HLM resolves the scale of the NHDPlus, the outlets of the latter do not necessarily correspond to the nodes of the HLM model. The authors evaluated two methods to map the outlets of NHDPlus to outlets on the IFC network. The methods compare the upstream areas of the channels and their spatial location. Both methods displayed similar performance and identified matches for about 80% of the outlets with a tolerance of 10% in errors in the upstream area. As the aggregation scale increases, the number of matches also increases. At the scale of 100 km², 90% of the outlets have matches with tolerance of 5%. The authors recommend this scale for comparing the HLM and NWM streamflow predictions.     

Challenges and Opportunities for Creating Intelligent Hazard Alerts: The “FloodHippo” Prototype

Disasters evolving from hazards are a persistent and deadly occurrence in the United States. Despite this, hazard alerts have remained spatially vague, temporally imprecise, and lack actionable information. These deficiencies indicate a divide between the status quo and what is possible given modern environmental models, geographic information systems (GIS), and smartphone capabilities. This work describes an alternative, prototype system, “FloodHippo,” which integrates operational model outputs, cloud‐based GIS, and expanded communication channels to provide personal and interactive disaster alerts for floods. The precepts and methods underpinning FloodHippo apply equally to other disasters that evolve over space and time, presenting the opportunity for a more intelligent disaster response system. The development of such a system would not only minimize current shortcomings in disaster alerts but also improve resilience through individual action, along with community, academic, and federal cooperation.