基于相空间重构和独立分量分析的火灾预测

利用非线性动力学的相空间重构理论和独立分量分析,结合非线性支持向量回归,提出了火灾起数时间序列预测方法。首先用时间延迟法和独立分量分析重构系统的相空间来反映火灾起数时间序列的内在变化规律,然后再用非线性支持向量回归来构建预测模型。仿真结果表明该预测方法具有较高的预测精度。     

Post-conflict health reconstruction: search for a policy

Despite increasing experience in health reconstruction in societies emerging from conflict, the policy basis for investing in the development of equitable and effective health systems in the wake of war remains unsettled. Consideration of post-conflict health reconstruction is almost entirely absent in donor policies on global health. Practically by default, health programmes are seen increasingly as an element of stabilisation and security interventions in the aftermath of armed conflict. That perspective, however, lacks an evidence base and can skew health programmes towards short-term security and stabilisation goals that have a marginal impact and violate the principles of equity, non-discrimination, and quality, which are central to sound health systems and public acceptance of them. A better approach is to ground policy in legitimacy, viewing health both as a core social institution and one that, if developed according to human rights principles, including equity, non-discrimination, participation and accountability, can advance the effectiveness and the quality of governance in the emerging state.     

Quantifying the unreported and unaccounted domestic and foreign commercial catch of sharks and rays in Western Australia

Reliable catch information is scarce for most sharks and rays worldwide, with almost half of the stocks considered to be Data Deficient due to limited species-specific catch statistics. Western Australia (WA) hosts a diverse number of shark and ray species, some of which are considered to be threatened with extinction at a global level. Commercial catch statistics only account for shark and ray landings. The present study used the best available information to reconstruct unaccounted and unreported catches for 47 shark and ray taxa to better understand the impact of fishing. For some species, there was good agreement between reconstructed catches and reported landings, but overall reconstructed catches were 57% higher than those derived from official statistics alone, underestimating the actual extraction level for many species. The reconstructed catch time series provide the basis for the assessment of all species of sharks and rays captured in WA, including protected species that interact with commercial and recreational fisheries.Supplementary informationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01495-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.     

我国露天煤矿开采区生态恢复研究存在的问题探讨

露天煤矿的开采在带来巨大经济效益的同时,也产生了生态破坏和环境污染等一系列问题。矿区的生态恢复已经在社会上引起了广泛关注,成为当前研究的热点之一。本文概述了我国露天煤矿开采区的生态环境问题、生态恢复研究现状及实践,探讨性地提出了目前露天煤矿开采区生态恢复研究存在的问题及建议。     

Rehabilitation and improvement of Guilin urban water environment：Function-oriented management

Economic development and population growth have deeply damaged the urban water environment of Guilin City, China. Main problems involved structural damage and functional deterioration of the urban waters. An integrated technical scheme was developed to rehabilitate the urban water environment and to enhance the waters' functions during 1998-2008. Improvement of waters' functions included water system reconstruction, water pollution control, water safety assurance, and aquatic ecological restoration. The water system was reconstructed to connect different waters and clean water supplies to the lakes. Moreover, water pollution was controlled to improve water quality by endogenous pollutant elimination and extraneous pollutant interception. In addition, ecological measures put in place serve to enhance water system functions and better benefit both nature and humans. The project has brought about sound ecological, economic and social benefits in Guilin City, which can potentially be extended to similar cities.     

The Great East Japan Earthquake,tsunami, and nuclear meltdown: towards the (re)construction of a safe,sustainable, and compassionate society in Japan's shrinking regions

Japan's rural regions have been shrinking for the entire post-war period, and successive efforts to revitalise rural society have failed. This article examines whether the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, and the subsequent meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, present the Japanese state and society with a watershed opportunity to rethink regional revitalisation and national energy procurement strategies. The article begins by summarising the events of March and April 2011, examines possible approaches to the reconstruction of communities in the Tōhoku region, and critiques problems of governance in post-war Japan that the disaster reveals. It concludes by pulling together the information and analysis presented into a discussion of the prospects for achieving the three-point vision for a safe, sustainable, and compassionate society that Prime Minister Naoto Kan set the Reconstruction Design Council.     

基于Pc-Crash的车辆侧滑事故再现方法

为准确再现车辆侧滑事故,基于Pc-Crash软件,提出一种分步再现事故的方法。该方法首先仿真事故车辆侧滑运动,获得侧滑车辆碰撞前瞬间运动状态参数;然后定义新仿真以再现侧滑车辆与事故其他参与者的碰撞;重复此2步骤,以确保仿真中痕迹与事故中痕迹最相符合。最后就一例车辆侧滑后与过往车辆发生碰撞的事故,演示该分步再现方法各步骤的实现途径。结果显示,利用Pc-Crash软件分步再现车辆侧滑事故,能较为容易地控制再现过程,保证仿真中痕迹与现实情况的一致性。     

长江上游地区生态重建的经济补偿机制探析

长江上游地区生态环境日益恶化是全社会关注的问题。生态重建面临着一系列问题 ,如经济、粮食、就业等问题 ,其中经济问题是最根本的 ,仅靠上游地区是难以解决的。就此问题 ,笔者根据生态环境资源有偿使用并兼顾效率与公平的原则 ,运用对策思维方法 ,提出建立经济补偿机制 ,实行内部补偿、外部补偿和代际补偿相结合的补偿模式 ,实现长江流域经济、生态、社会协调发展。在生态重建初期 ,以外部补偿和代际补偿为主 ,内部补偿为补充 ;待上游地区经济补偿能力提高以后 ,则以内部补偿为主 ,外部补偿和代际补偿为补充。内部补偿重点在于挖掘自身的经济潜力 ;外部补偿的最佳模式是进行造血式经济补偿 ;代际补偿除给予资金支持外 ,还表现为创造良好的政策环境。     

改扩建项目安全风险管理

介绍了广州石化改扩建项目的安全风险管理:分析了建筑安装与石油炼制两个行业的交叉风险,从管理策划与制度设计、安全宣传教育、本质安全、安全检查、绩效考核、合同管理等方面着手进行风险控制,取得了较好的成效.     

经济发达区域生态化发展研究——以张家港经济技术开发区为例

中国苏南地区经济基础雄厚,生态环境良好,但区域生态化发展仍面临着产业亟需转型升级、自主研发能力不足和土地资源紧缺等制约.优化发展方式,实现生态化改造是经济发达地区进一步发展的必然选择.文章以张家港经济技术开发区为研究对象,在对其存在问题进行分析的基础上,从企业、园区和区域三个层次提出了生态化发展的途径,并从产业改造和结构提升、积极发展低碳经济和加强产城共建等方面加以展开,可为张家港经济技术开发区的建设提供科学决策的依据.