A stochastic weather generation model for Alaska

A specific problem encountered in ecosystem-level simulation of Arctic ecosystems is the depth and extent of the driving variable record. Often, climate records are of short duration, gathered at locations different from the area to be simulated, or do not contain all the variables required by a given model. This paper addresses this problem for ecosystem simulation in Alaska with the development of a weather generator. The generator, called WGENAL, is based on the WGEN climate generator developed and validated in the 48 conterminous states. Because of the extreme variability of weather in Alaska that is not accommodated by the statistical metrics in the earlier model, a new climate generator was developed. WGENAL generates daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, solar radiation, and wind run. Precipitation is generated using a Markov chain-gamma model. A two-parameter gamma distribution is used to generate wind run. Temperatures and solar radiation are generated using procedures developed in the earlier study. Validation of the generator shows it provides adequate diurnal and seasonal weather records for Fairbanks. Other comparisons of synthetic weather with observed weather for sites north of the Brooks Range in Alaska are also within the error of the original data.     

Evidence of variable discount rates and non-standard discounting in mortality risk valuation

Time discounting is central to the valuation of future health and mortality risks in public sector allocative decision-making, particularly for environmental policies with delayed health impacts. Using a Risk-Risk trade-off survey, we elicit discount rates for fatality risks and establish discounting functional forms on both a sample and an individual level. We find wide variation in implicit discount rates for fatality risk between individuals, as well as between-individual heterogeneity in discounting functional forms. In aggregate, the sample is best characterised by subadditive discounting. Our work has implications for the academic investigation of intertemporal choice involving mortality risks, and potentially for the evaluation of policy options with delayed mortality risk outcomes. A thought experiment cautions against the standard practice of assuming that exponential discounting characterises society's time preferences.     

Combining FAP,MAP and correlation analysis for multivariate alarm thresholds optimization in industrial process

In the real industrial process, alarm threshold optimization is an important part of alarm system rationalization. If the design of alarm threshold is unreasonable, it would result in nuisance alarms, among which the critical alarms are overwhelmed. In order to alleviate this phenomenon, we propose a method of multivariate alarm thresholds optimization to reduce the nuisance alarms. Firstly, causal relationship between process variables is constructed based on the time delay estimation method, thus we can determine the alarms propagation path and then select the optimized variables. Secondly, in order to guarantee both the process safety and correlation consistency, three factors - false alarm probability (FAP), missed alarm probability (MAP), and the correlation between the alarm information and process information – are combined to establish the objective function of the optimization process for the first time. Then, the optimal thresholds are obtained by the genetic algorithm. Finally, the validity and effectiveness of the developed method are illustrated by the Tennessee Eastman process.     

The business cycle and the incidence of workplace injuries: evidence from the U.S.A

Introduction

The current study explored the association between the business cycle and the incidence of workplace injuries to identify cyclically sensitive industries and the relative contribution of physical capital and labor utilization within industries.

Method

Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfatal injury rates from 1976 through 2007 were examined across five industry sectors with respect to several macroeconomic indicators. Within industries, injury associations with utilization of labor and physical capital over time were tested using time series regression methods.

Results

Pro-cyclical associations between business cycle indicators and injury incidence were observed in mining, construction, and manufacturing but not in agriculture or trade. Physical capital utilization was the highest potential contributor to injuries in mining while labor utilization was the highest potential contributor in construction. In manufacturing each effect had a similar association with injuries.

Conclusion

The incidence of workplace injury is associated with the business cycle. However, the degree of association and the mechanisms through with the business cycle affects the incidence of workplace injuries was not the same across industries.

Impact on Industry

The results suggest that firms in the construction, manufacturing, and mining industries should take additional precautionary safety measures during cyclical upturns. Potential differences among industries in the mechanisms through which the business cycle affects injury incidence suggest different protective strategies for those industries. For example, in construction, additional efforts might be undertaken to ensure workers are adequately trained and not excessively fatigued, while safety procedures continue to be followed even during boom times.     

Flexibility in daily travel routines causes regional variation in bird migration speed

We used novel Global Positioning System-based satellite telemetry to reconstruct daily time budgets on travelling days of a long-distance migrant, the Osprey Pandion haliaetus, to reveal how landscape affects migratory performance. We compared daily travel routines between the Ospreys’ passage of Europe and the Sahara. In Europe, where feeding habitat is abundant, Ospreys fed both before–after flights and during interruptions, thus, combining migration with foraging. This resulted in a 2.7-h shorter daily flight period in Europe than in the Sahara. A calculated energy budget indicated that a ‘fly-and-forage migration strategy’ is favourable in Europe because associated benefits (energy intake) more than outweigh costs (reduced flight time). The much shorter flight time in Europe was the main explanation why Ospreys covered on average 78 km less distance on a travelling day in Europe than in the Sahara. In addition, there were regional differences in hourly flight speeds that are most probably the result of variation in thermal soaring conditions. We conclude that landscape properties have a profound effect on migration through regional variation in daily routines.     

A CFD based explosion risk analysis methodology using time varying release rates in dispersion simulations

A full probabilistic Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) is commonly used to establish overpressure exceedance curves for offshore facilities. This involves modelling a large number of gas dispersion and explosion scenarios. Capturing the time dependant build up and decay of a flammable gas cloud size along with its shape and location are important parameters that can govern the results of an ERA. Dispersion simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are generally carried out in detailed ERA studies to obtain these pieces of information. However, these dispersion simulations are typically modelled with constant release rates leading to steady state results. The basic assumption used here is that the flammable gas cloud build up rate from these constant release rate dispersion simulations would mimic the actual transient cloud build up rate from a time varying release rate. This assumption does not correctly capture the physical phenomena of transient gas releases and their subsequent dispersion and may lead to very conservative results. This in turn results in potential over design of facilities with implications on time, materials and cost of a project.In the current work, an ERA methodology is proposed that uses time varying release rates as an input in the CFD dispersion simulations to obtain the fully transient flammable gas cloud build-up and decay, while ensuring the total time required to perform the ERA study is also reduced. It was found that the proposed ERA methodology leads to improved accuracy in dispersion results, steeper overpressure exceedance curves and a significant reduction in the Design Accidental Load (DAL) values whilst still maintaining some conservatism and also reducing the total time required to perform an ERA study.     

An alternative work measurement method and its application to a manufacturing industry

Difficulties in determining the standard time justify the need to develop alternative methods to direct measurement procedures. The indirect methods which are comparison and prediction, standard data and formulation, predefined movement-time systems have several deficiencies in time measurement procedures. In this study, an alternative indirect work measurement method based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) is presented which is simple and inexpensive. For the application of the proposed method, the products that have similar production processes are selected among the whole product family produced in a manufacturing company. The standard times of the sampled products that are previously measured are used and the standard times of the remaining several products and semi-products are predicted by the proposed method. The model results show that the proposed method can be applied accurately in companies which produce similar products.     

The application of artificial neural networks to flow and phosphorus dynamics in small streams on the Boreal Plain,with emphasis on the role of wetlands

Historically, management strategies in Canada's boreal forest have focused on forest polygons and terrestrial biodiversity to address ecological considerations in forest management. The Forest Watershed and Riparian Disturbance (FORWARD) project examines the problem from a watershed perspective rather than a forest polygon viewpoint. The main objective of this study was to devise an artificial neural network (ANN) modeling tool that can predict flow and total phosphorus (TP) concentration for ungauged watersheds (where daily flow is not monitored). This dictates that all inputs should be easily accessed via a public domain database, like the Environment Canada weather database, without the need to install flow gauges in each modeled watershed. Daily flow and TP concentration for two of the project watersheds were modeled using ANNs. The two watersheds (1A Creek, 5.1 km² and Willow Creek, 15.6 km²) were chosen to reflect variations in wetland area and composition in the study area. Flow was modeled with a feed-forward multilayer perceptron ANN trained with the error back-propagation algorithm. Simulated values for flow were then used, as inputs, to model TP concentration using the same neural networks algorithm. One hidden layer with three slabs; each operating with a different activation function was utilized to simulate the conceptual differences between base flow, snowmelt, and storm events. Time domain analysis was conducted to identify possible model time-lagged inputs reflecting the time dependency of the modeled variables. Spectral analysis was used to address data hystereses. Our results highlight the capabilities of ANN in modeling complex ecosystems and highly correlated variables. Results also indicated that more research towards the phosphorus dynamics in wetlands is required to better represent the impact of wetland area and composition on the water-phase phosphorus in ANN modeling.     

混沌理论在事故分析及预测中的应用

在对江苏常州市某公司安全事故资料进行大量调查与统计的基础上,应用混沌理论分析了该公司安全事故的混沌特征,指出了事故对初始条件的敏感依赖性和事故的长期不可预测性。应用重构相空间理论对安全事故次数的时间序列进行了分析和预测。同时,还对安全事故统计资料进行了R/S分析,得出该时间序列以2 0 0 1年6月为界限,存在两个Hurst指数,H1=1.6 82 8和H2 =0 .2 936 ,表明在以3个月为时间统计尺度的条件下,事故发生次数在前一时间段整体表现为持久相关性,而在后一时间段表现为反持久相关性。预测与分析结果与实际情况符合较好,表明应用混沌理论进行事故分析与预测是可行的,反映了事故的发展趋势。     

木粉尘职业接触极限值的研究

木头作为原材料得到广泛应用 ,但硬木粉尘 (如橡木和山毛榉粉尘 )可导致人患鼻癌。不同国家的木粉尘的职业接触极限值 (或极限值 )却不尽相同。虽然关于木粉尘的极限值的国际讨论持续已久 ,但仍缺乏更好支持其极限值推导的健康相关数据。为保护木材加工工人的身体健康以及给木粉尘的职业接触极限值的制定机构提供可靠数据和科学决策方面的建议 ,笔者针对怎样为木粉尘 ,特别是致癌木粉尘制定一个合理极限值的问题 ,在“比较”和“设定”两方面对国际范围内的木粉尘的极限值进行了研究 ,其结果表明 ,大部分国家给予软木粉尘和硬木粉尘的极限值分别为 5mg/m3 和 1mg/m3 ;提出利用剂量 -影响 -关系和“线性多阶段”方法也可以给致癌硬木粉尘建立一个健康基础极限值或者一个可接受极限值 ,其极限值应该不仅根据木材类型而且还需根据工作岗位而分别综合设定。