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151.
A full probabilistic Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) is commonly used to establish overpressure exceedance curves for offshore facilities. This involves modelling a large number of gas dispersion and explosion scenarios. Capturing the time dependant build up and decay of a flammable gas cloud size along with its shape and location are important parameters that can govern the results of an ERA. Dispersion simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are generally carried out in detailed ERA studies to obtain these pieces of information. However, these dispersion simulations are typically modelled with constant release rates leading to steady state results. The basic assumption used here is that the flammable gas cloud build up rate from these constant release rate dispersion simulations would mimic the actual transient cloud build up rate from a time varying release rate. This assumption does not correctly capture the physical phenomena of transient gas releases and their subsequent dispersion and may lead to very conservative results. This in turn results in potential over design of facilities with implications on time, materials and cost of a project.In the current work, an ERA methodology is proposed that uses time varying release rates as an input in the CFD dispersion simulations to obtain the fully transient flammable gas cloud build-up and decay, while ensuring the total time required to perform the ERA study is also reduced. It was found that the proposed ERA methodology leads to improved accuracy in dispersion results, steeper overpressure exceedance curves and a significant reduction in the Design Accidental Load (DAL) values whilst still maintaining some conservatism and also reducing the total time required to perform an ERA study. 相似文献
152.
Metin Da?deviren Fatih V. Çelebi 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2011,24(5):563-567
Difficulties in determining the standard time justify the need to develop alternative methods to direct measurement procedures. The indirect methods which are comparison and prediction, standard data and formulation, predefined movement-time systems have several deficiencies in time measurement procedures. In this study, an alternative indirect work measurement method based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) is presented which is simple and inexpensive. For the application of the proposed method, the products that have similar production processes are selected among the whole product family produced in a manufacturing company. The standard times of the sampled products that are previously measured are used and the standard times of the remaining several products and semi-products are predicted by the proposed method. The model results show that the proposed method can be applied accurately in companies which produce similar products. 相似文献
153.
IntroductionEmergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs), including rollovers and collisions with other vehicles and fixed objects, are a leading cause of death among U.S. firefighters. Risk management (RM) is a proactive intervention to identifying and mitigating occupational risks and hazards. The goal of this study was to assess the effect of RM in reducing ESVCs. Methods: Three fire departments (A, B and C), representing urban and suburban geographies, and serving medium to large populations, participated in facilitated RM programs to reduce their ESVCs. Interventions were chosen by each department to address their department-specific circumstances and highest risks. Monthly crash rates per 10,000 calls were calculated for each department an average of 28 months before and 23 months after the start of the RM programs. Interrupted time series analysis was used to assess the effect of the RM programs on monthly crash rates. Poisson regression was used to estimate the number of crashes avoided. Economic data from Department A were analyzed to estimate cost savings. Results: Department A had a 15.4% (P = 0.30) reduction in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1% (P = 0.18) decline per month thereafter. The estimated two-year average cost savings due to 167 crashes avoided was $253,100 (95%CI= $192,355 – $313,885). Department B had a 9.7% (P = 0.70) increase in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and showed no significant changes in their monthly crash rate. Department C had a 28.4% (P = 0.001) reduction in overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1.2% (P = 0.09) increase per month thereafter, with an estimated 122 crashes avoided. Conclusions: RM programs have the potential to reduce ESVCs in the fire service and their associated costs; results may vary based on the interventions chosen and how they are implemented. Practical applications: Risk management may be an effective and broadly implemented intervention to reduce ESVCs in the US fire service. 相似文献
154.
Colin Price 《Environmental management》1981,5(2):161-175
Overuse of recreation sites seems to justify regulation, and the principal tools for this are fee charging or physical exclusion. Both seem equally costly to administer. Both involve equal costs to consumers if recreationists visit from one origin, but if they come from different origins, costs may be greater and consumers' surplus less under either tool, depending on the shape of the demand curve. Which is the more equitable tool depends on the relative representation of rich and poor participants from near and distant origins. Potentially beneficial use of site revenues is an advantage of charging. Neither availability of substitutes nor variation in daily demand seems likely to change these results substantially, but a system of booking admissions before the trip outset might neutralize the advantages of charging. The optimal level of use varies with the regulatory tool chosen. The optimal admissions under exclusion could be fewer than or more than under charging, or may even be equal to unregulated use. 相似文献
155.
156.
河流水质时间序列分析的自组织预测方法及应用 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
应用前苏联学者伊万年科基于生物控制论中的自组织原理提出的一种数据组合处理方法,有效地解决复杂非线性系统预测。以汾河某段的水污染时间序列监测数据为基础,建立了一个河流水质污染预测的自组织模型,其建模样本的拟合值和检验样本的预测值相对误差分别在3.1%和5.3%以内。结果表明,自组织模型能较好地描述水污染时间序列数据之间的非线性关系,适合复杂水环境污染系统的预测工作。 相似文献
157.
158.
通过对沈阳地铁一号钱施工期产生的环境影响综合分析,研究该项目在建设中产生的噪声、振动、废水、废气及固体废弃物等污染物产生的规律和发生量,并提出缓解和控制环境影响的措施。 相似文献
159.
Time discounting is central to the valuation of future health and mortality risks in public sector allocative decision-making, particularly for environmental policies with delayed health impacts. Using a Risk-Risk trade-off survey, we elicit discount rates for fatality risks and establish discounting functional forms on both a sample and an individual level. We find wide variation in implicit discount rates for fatality risk between individuals, as well as between-individual heterogeneity in discounting functional forms. In aggregate, the sample is best characterised by subadditive discounting. Our work has implications for the academic investigation of intertemporal choice involving mortality risks, and potentially for the evaluation of policy options with delayed mortality risk outcomes. A thought experiment cautions against the standard practice of assuming that exponential discounting characterises society's time preferences. 相似文献
160.
Time budgets and foraging in a Malagasy primate: do sex differences reflect reproductive condition and female dominance? 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Claire A. Hemingway 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》1999,45(3-4):311-322
Female mammals commonly employ behavioral tactics of modulating activity levels and foraging behavior to counter the energetic
burden of reproduction; these behavioral changes are reflected as intersexual differences. Traditional views of Malagasy primates
posit that high reproductive costs select for female dominance which guarantees to energetically stressed females priority
of resource access. I tested predictions regarding reproductive influences on sex differences in time budgets and foraging
behavior using two groups of Milne-Edwards' sifaka (Propithecus diadema edwardsi) in southeastern Madagascar. Compared to males, females increased neither feeding nor resting time during gestation or lactation.
Sex differences were essentially absent in all foraging time variables examined (time, duration, rate). In contrast, dietary
composition diverged between the sexes in some months. The possibility that females selected particular food items to boost
nutrient and energetic intake to meet increased requirements during reproduction must be further clarified with nutritional
analyses. Sex differences in plant part choices coincided with lactation in one of the two study groups. Thus, the timing
of sex differences in feeding patterns of P. d. edwardsi only partially supports the prediction that sex differences are most pronounced during the period of greatest female energetic
demand. A comparative review indicated no tight association between female dominance and sex differences in foraging among
Malagasy primates. Traditional female dominance theory falls short of explaining the observed patterns. The results of my
study coupled with recent evidence suggest that non-behavioral tactics involving energy conservation and storage require further
attention as mechanisms by which female lemurs cope with reproductive costs.
Received: 12 June 1998 / Accepted after revision: 10 October 1998 相似文献