获取日均值的大气监测时段选择

利用数理统计方法，以污染物瞬时监测数据为基础数据，选用控制在一定置信度下最大允许误差的统计公式确定出样本容量，并采用模糊集合运算—优化组合选择法，确定出获取日均值的最佳监测时段．     

防灾工程动态投资决策方法初探

本文提出了防灾工程的抗力、灾损度和灾害的灾度、灾害势以及动态决策准则等概念,基于现代控制理论,初步建立了防灾工程动态投资决策的一般方法,并对其进行了理论分析和研究。这里的决策包括防灾工程的初始投资(或设防水平)决策及其防灾规划期(或寿命期)内的防灾减灾维护投资(或维护水平)决策.文中还给出了算例,对上述方法进行了应用。算例结果表明,本文提出的防灾工程动态投资决策方法具有比较显著的经济效益。     

Effect on fatality risk of changing from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement

BACKGROUND: Most seat belt use laws originally passed in the United States contained language restricting enforcement to drivers already stopped for some other reason. States that have since removed this secondary enforcement restriction have reported increased seat belt use. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the effect of these law changes on driver fatality rates. METHOD: Trends in passenger vehicle driver death rates per billion miles traveled were compared for 10 states that changed from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement and 14 states that remained with secondary enforcement. RESULTS: After accounting for possible economic effects and other general time trends, the change from secondary to primary enforcement was found to reduce annual passenger vehicle driver death rates by an estimated 7% (95% confidence limits 3.0-10.9). CONCLUSION: The majority of U.S. states still have secondary enforcement laws. If these remaining secondary laws were amended, an estimated 696 deaths per year could be prevented.     

Foraging in the seed-harvester ant genus Pogonomyrmex: are energy costs important?

Energy intake and expenditure on natural foraging trips were estimated for the seed-harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex maricopa and P. rugosus. During seed collection, P. maricopa foraged individually, whereas P. rugosus employed a trunk-trail foraging system. Energy gain per trip and per minute were not significantly different between species. There was also no interspecific difference in energy cost per trip, but energy cost per minute was lower for P. maricopa foragers because they spent on average 7 min longer searching for a load on each trip. Including both unsuccessful and successful foraging trips, average energy gain per trip was more than 100 times the energy cost per trip for both species. Based on this result, we suggest that time cost incurred during individual foraging trips is much more important than energy cost in terms of maximizing net resource intake over time. In addition, because energy costs are so small relative to gains, we propose that energy costs associated with foraging may be safely ignored in future tests of foraging theory with seed-harvesting ant species.     

Kernel-based home range method for data with irregular sampling intervals

Studies of habitat selection and movements often use radio-tracking data for defining animal home ranges. Home ranges (HR) can be approximated by a utilization density distribution (UD) that instead of assuming uniform use of areas within HR boundary provides a probabilistic measure of animal space use. In reality, radio-tracking data contain periods of frequent autocorrelated observations interspersed with temporally more independent observations. Using such temporally irregular data directly may result in biased UD estimates, because areas that have been sampled intensively receive too much weight. The problem of autocorrelation has been tackled by resampling data with an appropriate time interval. However, resampling may cause a large reduction in the data set size along with a loss of information. Evidently, biased UD estimates or reduction in data may prejudice the results on animal habitat selection and movement. We introduce a new method for estimating UDs with temporally irregular data. The proposed method, called the time kernel, accounts for temporal aggregation of observations and gives less weight to temporally autocorrelated observations. A further extension of the method accounts also for spatially aggregated observations with relatively low weights given to observations that are both temporally and spatially aggregated. We test the behaviour of the time kernel method and its spatiotemporal version using simulated data. In addition, the method is applied to a data set of brown bear locations.     

历史时期黄河下游河道演变规律与淮河灾害治理

历史时期黄河下游河道演变规律表明,河流从沿程淤积到河口延伸、再到溯源淤积的自适应过程,在1000a、100a、50a、10a等各种时间尺度上均可能发生,这对淮河水系改造的可行性论证、方案设计等有重要指导意义。     

Long-term engineering properties of recycled plastic lumber used in pier construction

Plastic lumber manufactured using post consumer waste plastic has been proposed as an acceptable material for use in the construction of docks, piers and bulkheads and is touted to outlast conventional wood products due to its strength, durability and resistance to rot. This study examines the long-term engineering properties of plastic lumber manufactured using post consumer waste plastic (TRIMAX, Ronkonkoma, NY). Plastic lumber profiles were used in the decking of a pier built in West Meadow Creek, Old Field, NY during December 1995. Samples of plastic lumber were removed from the deck of the pier periodically over a two-year period and returned to the laboratory for testing. Results of engineering tests showed the in-plane compression modulus (260±30 MPa), dimensional stability and the Shore D surface hardness (60±2) of plastic lumber removed from the pier remained similar to or greater than their pre-placement values. In contrast, significant changes in the modulus of elasticity of plastic lumber were measured with prolonged weathering. The modulus of elasticity of plastic lumber initially decreased from 1370 Pa to 750 Pa following 12 months weathering, a decrease equal to 45% of its pre-placement value and then increased during the second year to close to its initial value. The high variability in the modulus of elasticity should restrict the use of plastic lumber profiles to non-load bearing structural applications.     

Examination of dioxin fluxes recorded in dated aquatic-sediment cores in the Kanto region of Japan using multivariate data analysis

Past dioxin (coplanar polychlorinated biphenyl (Co-PCB), 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD) and 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDF)) fluxes recorded in dated aquatic-sediment cores were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA). The data set consisted of samples from four cores collected from the Kanto region of Japan. Time trends and spatial differences in the dioxin flux were examined, and the potential relationship to emission sources was investigated. Twenty-five compounds and 58 core slices, corresponding to the later half of the 20th century, were subjected to the analysis. The PCA of both log-transformed and maximum-value-standardized data successfully divided the dioxin compounds into a small number of groups, and three similar clusters of Co-PCBs, PCDDs and penta- to hepta-CDFs were identified. PCB formulations used in the past are judged to have been responsible for the major part of the Co-PCB flux recorded in the sediment cores. However, the relationship to emission sources needs further investigation. It is suggested that most 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDDs and PCDFs are different from Co-PCBs in their emission sources or movements in the environment. The subcore clusters obtained from the PCA of log-transformed data show that the cores from different sampling areas exhibited distinct dioxin fluxes and compositions. Common time trends among the cores were more effectively summarized by the PCA of maximum-value-standardized data focusing on relative time trends. PC scores show that recently the flux of each dioxin compound in the four cores has been generally declining after having reached a peak.     

Evaluating non-equilibrium solute transport in small soil columns

Displacement studies on leaching of bromide and two pesticides (atrazine and isoproturon) were conducted under unsaturated steady state flow conditions in 24 small undisturbed soil columns (5.7 cm in diameter and 10 cm long) each collected from two sites differing in soil structure and organic carbon content in North Germany. There were large and irregular variabilities in the characteristics of both soils, as well as in the shapes of breakthrough curves (BTCs) of different columns, including some with early breakthrough and increased tailing, qualitatively indicating the presence of preferential flow. It was estimated that one preferential flow column (PFC) at site A, and four at site B, contributed, respectively to 11% and 58% of the accumulated leached fraction and to more than 80% of the maximum observed standard deviation (SD) in the field-scale concentration and mass flux of pesticides at two sites. The bromide BTCs of two sites were analyzed with the equilibrium convection-dispersion equation (CDE) and a non-equilibrium two-region/mobile-immobile model. Transport parameters of these models for individual BTCs were determined using a curve fitting program, CXTFIT, and by the time moment method. For the CDE based equilibrium model, the mean values of retardation factor, R, considered separately for all columns, PFCs or non-preferential flow columns (NPFCs) were comparable for the two methods; significant differences were observed in the values of dispersion coefficients of two sites using the two estimation methods. It was inferred from the estimated parameters of non-equilibrium model that 5-12% of water at site A, and 12% at site B, was immobile during displacement in NPFCs. The corresponding values for PFCs of two sites were much larger, ranging from 25% to 51% by CXTFIT and from 24% to 72% by the moment method, suggesting the role of certain mechanisms other than immobile water in higher degrees of non-equilibrium in these columns. Peclet numbers in PFCs of both sites were consistently smaller than five, indicating the inadequacy of the non-equilibrium model to incorporate the effect of all forms of non-equilibrium in PFCs. Overall, the BTCs of individual NPFCs, PFCs and of field average concentration at the two sites were better reproduced with parameters obtained from CXTFIT than by the moment method. The moment method failed to capture the peak concentrations in PFCs, but tended to describe the desorption and tail branches of BTCs better than the curve fitting approach.     

SBR工艺设计经验探讨

提出了SBR工艺中,反应池容积、反应时间以及需氧量的计算方法和设计经验。同时,在研读和对比国内外相关资料的基础上,探讨了SBR工艺发生污泥膨胀的可能性和原因,介绍了控制方法与措施。