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41.
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Ghoramara Island is located ca. 150 km south of Kolkata, Bay of Bengal, India, in the Sundarban Delta complex. This sparsely
populated island is suffering from severe coastal erosion and areal reduction for the last three decades, which results in
the loss of major areas on the northwest coast. Both numerous households and a significant area of agricultural land and coastal
stretches for fish drying have been lost. This has rendered thousands of people homeless as ‘environmental refugess’. In the
present paper an attempt is made to study the erosion and accretion process through time series analysis using a GIS technique.
Also, a study of remedial measures to protect the island using a ‘bio-engineering’ technique is reported in this paper. It
has been shown that, in the absence of protection measures, the eastern shore will merge with the Indian mainland during the
next 25 years, while the western part will be completely washed off. 相似文献
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本文叙述了作者提出的时间序列预报方法的基本原理,介绍了这一方法在应用过程中的发展及在实际部门应用的情况,其中包括异常旱涝灾害预报及方法的改进等最新成果。 相似文献
45.
Akiko Furuno Hiroaki Terada Masamichi Chino Hiromi Yamazawa 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2004,38(40):6989
Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute has developed an emergency response system WSPEEDI to forecast long-range atmospheric dispersions of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere. The latest version of WSPEEDI consists of an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 for calculating meteorological fields and a particle random-walk model for atmospheric dispersion. The performance of WSPEEDI was evaluated by data obtained from a field tracer experiment over Europe (ETEX) in this paper. The model validation was done with respect to the following points: (1) the dependence of model accuracy on the temporal and spatial resolutions of the meteorological fields and (2) the superiority of an atmospheric dynamic model over a mass-consistent wind model. Regarding (1), it was shown that the calculation accuracy of the new version with high temporal resolution was improved, especially at the edge of the plume. Moreover, although the increase in horizontal spatial resolution of the old version had no substantial effect on the model performance, increase in horizontal resolution of the new version contributed to the significant improvement of the calculation accuracy. These results showed that the dynamically calculated meteorological field with the spatial resolution of the meso-β–γ scale greatly improved calculation accuracy. 相似文献
46.
Amanda H. Korstjens Ingrid Lugo Verhoeckx Robin I. M. Dunbar 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2006,60(5):683-694
An animal can only survive in a given habitat if it has enough time to find, process and digest food whilst avoiding predation. The time it has for food acquisition is affected by the vegetation and competition with conspecifics, which depends on aggregation tendencies. We used the relationships between time allocations, on the one hand, and climatic variables (as a proxy for habitat quality) and group size, on the other, to develop a model that predicts maximum ecologically tolerable group size at different locations for spider monkeys. Spider monkeys are particularly interesting because the social communities often split up into small units. Temperature variation and rainfall variation were the main determinants of time budgets. Community size and average annual rainfall determined party size. The model correctly predicted presence or absence of spider monkeys at 78–83% of 217 New World forest sites. Within the geographical range of the species, this time budget model predicted the presence of spider monkeys better than a model based directly on climate variables. Predicted community and party sizes were significantly larger at sites where spider monkeys are present than at sites where they are absent. As required by the model, predicted maximum community sizes were significantly larger than observed community sizes. Moving time showed a U-shaped relationship with party size, which suggests that moving time is the factor that keeps spider monkey communities from travelling together in a tight group. 相似文献
47.
Fanie?PelletierEmail author Marco?Festa-Bianchet 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2004,56(6):546-551
In sexually dimorphic ungulates, males generally spend less time foraging than females, possibly because of difference in body mass or because of the energetic requirements of lactation. The relationship between body size and foraging time has received little attention at the intra-specific level, because few studies have documented activity budgets for individuals of known size. Bighorn rams are a good model to explore how body mass affects foraging time, because they range in mass from 55 to 140 kg. We examined how the foraging time of bighorn rams varied according to individual characteristics. We observed rams in a marked population and constructed time budgets during the 3 months preceding the rut. We determined ram social rank based on agonistic encounters and collected fecal samples to count lungworm larvae. Time spent foraging was negatively correlated with body mass. After accounting for age differences, larger rams spent less time foraging and more time lying than smaller rams. Among rams aged 6–12 years, dominants spent less time feeding than subordinates, while fecal output of lungworm larvae was negatively correlated with foraging time for rams of all ages. Body mass accounts for much of the individual variation in foraging time, suggesting that sexual dimorphism is important in explaining differences in feeding time between males and females.Communicated by P. Heeb 相似文献
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This study elicits individual risk preferences in the context of an infectious disease using choice experiments. A main objective is to examine scope sensitivity using a novel approach. Our results suggest that the value of a mortality risk reduction (VSL) is highly sensitive to the survey design. Our results cast doubt on the standard scope sensitivity tests in choice experiments, but also on the validity and reliability of VSL estimates based on stated-preference studies in general. This is important due to the large empirical literature on non-market evaluation and the elicited values’ central role in policy making. 相似文献
50.
The use of materials is studied broadly, because of the environmental problems related to extraction, production, consumption and waste treatment. The use and substitution of materials in products is therefore a relevant issue for environmental policy making. Studies have been done to describe the material flow or to measure the impact of materials or products on the environment. However, these studies do not often consider economic, substitution and dynamic aspects of material flows. Other studies on material flows analyse the relationship between the use of materials and economic growth, but they do not consider substitution between materials. For environmental policy making economic, technological and environmental aspects of the use of materials need to be considered. Especially, substitution of materials is important. In various countries material and product policies are imposed on a variety of materials and products. For evaluation of these policies their environmental and economic effects need to be examined in detail. This study aims to analyse the economic and technological factors influencing the use of materials and the substitution between different materials dynamically. The goal is to obtain an insight in the effect that material levies may have on the use and substitution of materials. The statistical analysis is performed on a specific product-group because decisions on the use of materials are taken on a product-level. The case study is performed on automobiles. The results show that the material use is largely an autonomous development. The price of aluminium has a positive, significant effect on the use of that material. The price of plastics has a positive, but not significant effect on the use of plastics. Reasons may be that the costs of a raw material are small relative to the processing costs, and that the production process can only be changed slowly. Other factors, like competitiveness and consumers' tastes, may be more important for substitution. This implies that levies or subsidies on certain materials is not a promising policy to change the use of materials. Besides time, there are two other factors that have a positive and significant relationship with the use of aluminium and plastics: the fuel efficiency, which is the distance driven divided by the energy used; and, the road tax, which depends on the weight of a car. However, these effects are caused by their positive relationship with time. The main conclusion of the case study is that imposing a levy on materials may not have the desired or expected effect of reduction in material use. 相似文献