Assessment of the effects of a port expansion on algae appearance in a costal bay through mathematical modelling. Application to San Lorenzo Bay (North Spain)

In the last years several episodes of algae appearance affecting bathing areas have been observed in San Lorenzo Bay (north of Spain). The analysis of the collected algae revealed that they might come from near intertidal or shallow subtidal zones due to eutrophication processes or through drift algae movement by the action of marine currents. In the vicinity of this area, the expansion of the Port of Gijón (now under construction) supposes a significant modification of the coastal geometry. The magnitude of such an expansion could cause changes in the patterns of currents in the bay, with the consequent alteration of the observed algal appearance phenomena. A mathematical modelling study to evaluate the risk of generation of eutrophication processes in the San Lorenzo Bay area and the transport of drift algae from near sea bed areas was developed. This study required the use of different hydrodynamic models in order to characterize the currents caused by tides, winds and waves. The eutrophication processes in the bay were analyzed with a depth-averaged two-dimensional eutrophication model which deals with eight water quality variables. Calibration of model parameters with the observed data from a field survey was performed. A reasonable agreement with the field measurements was achieved. Model results showed that the maximum phytoplankton concentrations were below eutrophic conditions. Although, the port expansion has led to an increment of phytoplankton concentrations, chlorophyll a levels were not representative of eutrophic conditions. To analyse the transport of drift algae, a methodology based on the utilization of a two-dimensional model which solves the depth-averaged advection-diffusion equation considering seaweed as a conservative tracer was developed and applied. Numerical modelling allowed the identification of the coastal areas that seems to be the source of the seaweed found on the beach. It was also proven that port expansion does not significantly affect drift algae transport in the area.     

哈尔滨市城市用地扩展时空特征及驱动机制分析

在RS和GIS的支持下集成多源数据,提取哈尔滨市1989—2008年城市土地利用扩张信息。利用单一土地利用动态度和弹性系数模型分析了近20年城市用地扩展时空特征。结果表明：1）近20年城市用地面积增加了123.93km2,其中1996—2002年和2002—2008年增长较快,年均增长率分别为3.24%和3.52%。2）1989—1996年城市扩展规模在合理的范围内上下波动;1996—2002年城市用地扩展速度过快,高于城市人口增长速度;2002—2008年城市用地仍在持续扩展,但扩展速度小于人口增长速度。3）1989—1996年西南南方向上扩展面积较大,为3.61 km2;1996—2002年西北北和西南西方向扩展程度较大,分别为18.37 km2和8.78 km2;2002—2008年西北西方向扩展较为集中,面积为20.45 km2,主要表现在松北区大规模开发建设。4）从经济增长、人口数量、交通牵引和政策与城市规划等因素探讨了哈尔滨市城市用地扩展驱动机制,对指导城市合理规划和促进城市理性发展具有一定理论参考价值。     

Costs of expanding the network of protected areas as a response to climate change in the Cape Floristic Region

The expansion of protected areas is a critical component of strategies to promote the continued existence of biodiversity (i.e., life at all levels of biological organization) as climate changes, but scientific, social, and economic uncertainties associated with climate change are some of the major obstacles preventing such expansion. New models of climate change and species distribution and new methods of conservation planning now make it possible to explore the uncertainties associated with climate changes and species responses. Yet few reliable estimates of the costs of expanding protected areas and methods for determining these costs exist, largely because of the many (and uncertain) determinants of these costs. We developed a cost-accounting model to estimate the range in costs of various options for expanding protected areas and to explore the variables that drive these costs. Model development was informed by an existing plan to expand protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to address species conservation under a scenario of climate change. The 50-year present value of total costs varied from US$260 million ($1077/ha) for an off-reserve option that involves agreements with landowners and no compensation of forgone production and associated revenue to $1020 million ($4228/ha) for an on-reserve option that involves land acquisition and protection. The costs of acquiring land or compensating landowners for forgone production and development opportunities were the major drivers of the total costs across all options because most of the area identified in the protected-area expansion plan consisted of urban and high-quality agricultural lands. Total costs were also affected by changes in protected area extent and discount rate. Model-generated outputs such as these may be useful for informing implementation strategies and the allocation of future efforts in monitoring, data collection, and model development.     

基于道路网络特征的建设用地扩张及其对林地景观的影响——以深圳市为例

道路作为景观廊道,与建设用地景观、林地景观之间存在着复杂的生态学联系。在道路网络迅猛扩展的同时,深圳市建设用地迅速扩张,并对林地景观产生了一定影响。基于土地利用变更调查数据,对1996-2008年快速城市化地区深圳市道路密度与建设用地扩张强度、道路密度与建设用地-林地边界动态的相互关系进行了研究。结果表明,建设用地规模与道路密度、建设用地扩张强度与道路拓展强度呈相关关系,道路网络对城市的社会经济发展有着重要的支撑能力。另一方面,研究期间深圳市林地退化严重,与建设用地接触的单个林地斑块的平均边界长度（林建边界长度）增加,建设用地-林地边界呈现出复杂化的趋势。林建边界长度与道路密度成相关关系,道路密度小于2.5 km.km-2时,道路密度越大,林建边界长度越大,建设用地景观和林地景观的生态学作用越剧烈。     

城乡用地遥感识别与时空变化研究进展

土地利用/覆被变化在全球环境变化和可持续发展研究中具有极其重要的意义。论文在国内外土地利用/覆被变化研究梳理的基础上,从城乡用地遥感识别和时空变化两个方面归纳和总结了国内外土地利用/覆被变化的研究前沿和进展。研究发现在遥感和GIS技术支撑下土地利用/覆被变化研究形成了独特的研究范式,多分析方法、多数据源和多时段融合成为当前研究的重要趋势。目前在城乡生活-生产-生态空间识别研究领域取得了较大进展,但仍然存在“重城市和大城市、轻中小城市和城镇”的问题。时空变化研究重点从城市和乡村两个地域单元展开。城市扩张和城市蔓延的原因、后果、特征、过程、格局、模式和测度方法成为城市土地利用研究重点。耕地保护和乡村居民点变化研究成为乡村土地利用研究的两大核心。在研究取向上总体呈现出重城市轻乡村的趋势。当前研究应该以问题为导向、注重应用出口的探寻,构建适合中国国情的研究框架,鼓励多学科、多领域的综合交叉借鉴,创新理论和方法,打造本土性和原创性的创新成果。     

不同生态位城市用地扩张和经济发展的互动关系研究——以广东省为例

城市化过程往往具有阶段性,不同用地规模、等级或区域的城市用地扩张,具有不同的阶段性,它们与连续性经济发展之间的互动关系有显著的差别。论文以广东省21个地级及以上城市为研究对象,根据研究对象1995—2010年生态位值的变化情况,将21个城市分为4个等级,结合4种方法从不同角度对不同等级城市用地扩张和经济发展之间的关系进行研究。结果表明,研究城市扩张和经济发展关系的方法应该基于完全市场化的基本假设,而且需要应用多种方法从不同角度进行综合诊断。生态位的方法能够恰当地区分城市扩张与经济发展关系的级别,不同生态位的城市用地扩张和经济发展具有不同的关联机制。大部分高生态城市用地扩张和经济发展符合库兹涅茨曲线关系,并能用Logistic蒂模型拟合,两者之间长期均衡关系也较显著,高生态位城市以弱脱钩状态为主。高生态位城市占有较大的空间和较多的资源,市场化水平也较高,城市扩张与经济发展关系密切。大部分低生态位城市不满足库兹涅茨曲线关系,少数城市能用Logistic蒂模型拟合,两者之间长期均衡关系也不显著,低生态位城市以强脱钩状态为主。低生态位城市所占有的空间和资源都比较少,市场化水平也较低,尽管城市扩张与经济发展也有一定的关系,但表现不明显。就目前而言,大部分城市规模已接近城市扩张的上限,高生态位城市应利用管理和技术等手段,不断提高资源利用效率和集约化水平,推动经济可持续发展。低生态位城市应逐渐改变城乡土地二元结构,调整内部产业结构,实现经济的可持续发展。     

延迟型膨胀剂对水泥基封孔材料性能的影响研究

为解决水泥基封孔材料在煤矿封孔应用中产生收缩变形问题,现以水泥浆材料为基料,利用微胶囊技术对铝粉膨胀剂进行改性处理,通过单因素试验确定环境温度,并在所确定环境温度下利用正交试验研究不同芯/壁质量比、水灰比,微胶囊掺量条件下延迟型膨胀剂对封孔材料膨胀、抗压性能的影响。结果表明:芯/壁质量比1.5:1,水灰比0.5,环境温度35℃,掺入4‰改性膨胀剂封孔材料膨胀性能最佳。较基准组延迟膨胀4h,膨胀率终值为15%,抗压强度在膨胀剂的影响下没有明显降低,并保持良好的强度性能。1d抗压强度2.3MPa,3d强度14.6MPa,7d强度21.2MPa,28d强度31.7MPa。     

太湖流域城乡建设用地扩张的高程特征变化

文章以城乡建设用地扩张的高程变化为焦点,运用太湖流域1985、1995、2000 和2010 年4 期土地利用数据及90 m DEM数据,通过构建建设用地密度指数、增量比、扩张速度、扩张强度及建设用地高程指数等指标,探寻太湖流域城乡建设用地高程变化的空间分异特征及其演变规律,结果表明:建设用地流域整体扩张的热点从中等高程区向较高和较低高程区转移,且向较低高程区转移态势尤为凸显,流域空间分布上表现为流域东部下游平原河网及北部沿江的城镇密集区和南部苕溪上游山谷地带建设用地向较低高程区逐渐扩张的趋势,而在除苕溪外的流域其他上游山地丘陵区逐渐向较高高程区扩张;新区开发及新城建设推动着城乡建设用地快速扩张,适宜建设土地供给有限与土地财政驱动下用地需求旺盛之间的矛盾迫使建设用地扩张走向较低和较高高程区,尤其苏南城镇密集区向较低高程区转移趋势更显著;建设用地向低海拔地区扩张必然挤占自然蓄滞水空间,分割和阻塞自然行洪通道,且地势低洼处洪水易蓄难排,而高海拔地区扩张会加快汇流缩短下游洪峰时间,导致区域水文安全隐患和内涝事件频发.     

Driving mechanism and boundary control of urban sprawl

Since the reform and opening-up, China’s economy has achieved remarkable development and so does the urbanization. However, there is an unavoidable contradiction between urban sprawl and the protection of arable land and the environment. By redefining the urban sprawl boundary, this paper is to provide a solution for the conflict above on the China’s urbanization context. The ideal boundary, moderate boundary and limit boundary are defined for urban sprawl in space. Taking Nanjing city as a case, the three urban sprawl boundaries are estimated in this paper based on the calculation of agricultural land resources value in Nanjing. The results show that 1) the integrated value of agricultural (cultivated) land resources in Nanjing is 1.55 × 10⁷ CNY·hm⁻², the economic value accounts for only 8.74% of the integrated value, while 91.26% of the integrated value has not revealed itself due to the existing institutional arrangements, policy distortions, and imperfect land market; 2) it is difficult to define the ideal and moderate boundaries due to the relatively low price of North Nanjing. In South Nanjing the land price is expensive and the ideal, moderate and limit boundaries are expanded to Jiangning, Qixia, and Yuhuatai; 3) the city scale of South Nanjing should be limited within 5.82 × 10⁴ hm², which is roughly the same as the designated size of 5.81 × 10⁴ hm² in the urban planning. It is suggested that the rational scope of urban expansion should be controlled within the moderate boundary.     

绿洲型城市空间扩展的模拟及多情景预测——以酒泉、嘉峪关市为例

论文基于1987、1995、2000、2006和2011年多时相TM、ETM卫星遥感影像数据,以典型绿洲城市酒泉市和嘉峪关市为研究对象,运用目前较为成熟的集成元胞自动机模型（CA）和人工神经网络模型（ANN）的土地转换模型（LTM）,依据干旱绿洲区城镇发展特点及趋势,设置自然增长、酒嘉一体化、集约增长和生态保护情景,对城镇空间扩展进行模拟预测。结果表明：运用LTM模型对研究区1987年以来的城市扩展进行模拟,具有较好的模拟精度和可靠性,可以用于未来研究区城市空间扩展的预测;酒泉市中心城市未来扩展的重点在南部和西部,嘉峪关市中心城市未来扩展的重点在南部和东部,两市相向发展进程进一步加快,城市一体化趋势明显;受区域一体化及生态保护战略的影响,论文设定的酒嘉一体化、生态保护及集约增长情景模式能较好地反映研究区未来城市空间扩展的主要趋势;在自然背景和开发现状的基础上,以政府战略决策驱动为主的方式是绿洲型城市空间扩展的内在机理。