北京山区典型流域不同海拔椴树种群的空间点格局分析

采用点格局分析法对不同海拔的椴树（Tilia miqueliana Maxim.）种群进行分布格局及其种间关系进行了研究。结果表明：整体上群落内以中龄树个体数为最多,小树次之,成年树个体最少。随着海拔的增加可以看出：小树（d≤5 cm）随着海拔的增加而减少,中树（5 cm20 cm）的规律不明显;椴树种群的空间分布格局与空间尺度（25 m内）有密切关系,在较小的空间尺度上倾向于非随机分布,具有明显的空间相关性;在〉15 m或25m的某临界尺度时却倾向于随机分布,同时空间关联变得微弱。随着海拔的增加,各物种聚集分布的尺度有逐渐减小的趋势。种间关系随着海拔的增加,物种间的正相关尺度有增加的趋势。     

Testing the effectiveness of capture mark recapture population estimation techniques using a computer simulation with known population size

Estimation of small mammal population sizes is important for monitoring ecosystem condition and for conservation. Here, we test the accuracy of standard methods of population size estimation using Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) on a simulated population of agents. The use of a computer simulation allows complete control of population sizes and behaviors, thereby avoiding assumptions that may be violated in real populations. We find that the recommended protocol for CMR sampling, using uniformly distributed traps, consistently overestimates population sizes by as much as 100% when studies are conducted over only two trapping periods. More than 20 trapping periods are required before this method, or that of placing traps randomly, gives an accurate estimation of population size (i.e., within a 95% confidence limit of the actual value). Non-random sampling, by placing traps on runways used by small mammals, produces the most accurate, and least variable, estimates of population. However, we show that around 10 trapping periods are still required to produce an accurate population estimate using this method. Given that most real populations do not comply with the ‘ideal’ assumptions made by CMR, we suggest that population estimates based on CMR may be fundamentally flawed, and recommend that protocols for CMR population estimation methods may need revising.     

Modeling effects of toxin exposure in fish on long-term population size, with an application to selenium toxicity in bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus)

A primary goal in ecotoxicology is the prediction of population-level effects of contaminant exposure based on individual-level response. Assessment of toxicity at the population level has predominately focused on the population growth rate (PGR), but the PGR may not be a relevant toxicological endpoint for populations at equilibrium. Equilibrium population size may be a more meaningful endpoint than the PGR because a population with smaller equilibrium size is more susceptible to the negative effects of environmental variability. We address the individual-to-population extrapolation problem with modeling utilizing classical mathematical theory. We developed and analyzed a general model applicable to many freshwater fish species, that includes density-dependent juvenile survival and additional juvenile mortality due to toxicity exposure, and we quantified effect on equilibrium population size as a means of assessing toxicity. Individual-level effects are typically greater than population-level effects until the individual effect is large, due to compensatory density-dependent relationships. These effects are sensitive to the recruitment potential of a population, in particular the low-density first-year survival rate S_b. Assuming high S_b could result in underestimating effects of population-level toxicity. The equilibrium size depends directly on S_b, the reproductive potential, the toxin concentration at which mean mortality is 50% (LC₅₀), and the rate at which individual mortality increases with increasing toxin concentration. More experimental data are needed to decrease the uncertainty in estimating these parameters. We then used existing data for selenium toxicity in bluegill sunfish to parameterize a simulation version of the model as an example to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on toxicity response. Effects of environmental variability resulted in simulated extinctions at much lower toxin concentrations than predicted deterministically.     

Simulation of urban expansion patterns by integrating auto-logistic regression,Markov chain and cellular automata models

This research analyses urban expansion patterns and their eco-risks in the Poyang Lake region in China. A hybrid model consisting of auto-logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata (CA) is designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. An eco-risk assessment (ERA) index by integrating landscape fragmentation index and area weighted eco-service value index is established to promote the effectiveness for dynamically evaluating the environment and eco-security in watersheds. Scenario predictions are introduced to better understand the relationship between urban dynamics and their eco-risks. Three urban development scenarios such as historical development trend (HDT), environment protection priority (EPP) and goal-oriented restriction (GOR) are designed and transplanted into the CA model through the parameter self-modification method. The quantitative analysis results showed that in the period of the past five years, the urban growth primarily concentrated in the metropolitans. The simulations show that under the HDT scenario the urban growth will mainly emerge in the metropolitans, while under the EPP and GOR scenarios the urban growth will expand along with the metropolitans or the road networks and highways, respectively. Moreover, the ERA demonstrated that the GOR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of environment protection and urban sustainable development for the study area.     

Antarctic krill fishery effects over penguin populations under adverse climate conditions: Implications for the management of fishing practices

Fast climate changes in the western Antarctic Peninsula are reducing krill density, which along with increased fishing activities in recent decades, may have had synergistic effects on penguin populations. We tested that assumption by crossing data on fishing activities and Southern Annular Mode (an indicator of climate change in Antarctica) with penguin population data. Increases in fishing catch during the non-breeding period were likely to result in impacts on both chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarcticus) and gentoo (P. papua) populations. Catches and climate change together elevated the probability of negative population growth rates: very high fishing catch on years with warm winters and low sea ice (associated with negative Southern Annular Mode values) implied a decrease in population size in the following year. The current management of krill fishery in the Southern Ocean takes into account an arbitrary and fixed catch limit that does not reflect the variability of the krill population under effects of climate change, therefore affecting penguin populations when the environmental conditions were not favorable.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01386-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

上海乔木林分碳储量比较分析研究

基于全国第七次（2004年-2009年）森林资源清样调查资料,并参考上海市2011年森林植被遥感数据,运用线性相关和双曲线相关的换算因子连续函数法,对上海8种主要乔木林分碳储量进行估算,并分析了不同龄组和地域分布的乔木林分碳储量。结果表明,两种方法的估值差别较大,但均是樟树、幼龄林和市区乔木林分碳储量贡献比较大。     

垃圾焚烧厂渗滤液处理工程中常见问题探讨

结合在渗滤液处理设计上的经验,对垃圾焚烧厂渗滤液处理工程中出现的一些问题进行分析和探讨,希望本文能起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

南通市城镇建设用地扩展时空特征分析及模拟

随着工业化与城市化步伐的加快，城镇建设用地高速扩张，建设与粮食生产的矛盾日益突出，如何合理有效使用土地成为城市快速发展过程中迫切需要解决的问题。通过多时相遥感卫星影像，结合相关模型，分析和模拟建设用地扩展的时空特征，可以为城市土地合理配置与投放提供依据。利用 1987、1990、1997、2001、2006年的TM卫星遥感影像解译获得的建设用地数据，分析了南通近 20年来城镇建设用地变化和城区扩展特征，并且模拟了其扩展趋势。结果表明：南通市城镇建设用地扩展呈现明显的阶段性特征；其扩展的热点主要集中在沿江区域，沿海地区城镇建设用地扩展的热度逐步升温；城镇建设用地扩展显示出城镇组团化发展的趋势，尤其使南通大都市区的轮廓日益明晰。     

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth:A Case Study for Jinan Municipality,China

China is experiencing a process of rapid industrialization and urbanization at the cost of agricultural land and environment,particularly in the costal areas. This study takes Jinan as a case presenting a time-series analysis of urban land expansion from 313 to 2003. The results show that the urban expansion of Jinan city mainly took place in the last 100 years, especially after the economic reform in 1978. Social development and economic growth,urban population growth and migration policies were factors driving the urban land expansion. Urban sprawl resulted in a disappearance of wetlands and a great loss of agricultural land, and over-pumping of ground water that led to disappearance of the city‘s feature,namely “the city of springs“.