PMA-PP分析模型在内河水质科学评价中的应用

针对目前我国城市内河普遍遭到污染的问题,在分析影响内河水质因素的基础上,选取BOD5(五日生化需氧量)、CODcr(化学需氧量)、石油类、挥发酚、NH3-N(氨氮)、总磷等6个主要因素作为评价因子,建立了城市内河水质评价的投影寻踪分析模型,采用人口迁移算法对评价模型进行优化,并将该模型应用于南宁市10条内河水质的评价与排序。研究表明,用投影寻踪回归分析法进行水质评价,避免了传统评价方法由于主观原因造成的误差,评价结果合理可信、方法简单,为我国城市内河水质的评价提供了新途径。     

21世纪人口与资源环境可持续发展的概念和理论(待续)

论述了可持续发展概念的由来,从４个方面对可持续发展的理论进行了详细研究。指出可持续发展概念最本质的创新是改变过去人与自然的对立关系为和谐关系,中国将人口科学研究与可持续发展结合起来是跨世纪的国略。研究指出可持续发展的条件,揭示了人口、环境与发展变得和谐的现实可能性;判断可持续发展水平的高低,可由５个基本要素衡量,其社会应具备５个特征,以朝着更加均衡、和谐、互补的方向进化;指出可持续发展的中心矛盾是持续圈与行为圈的关系问题。     

Age group differences in collision risk

Introduction

The purpose of the current study was to examine differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of three age groups of drivers based on a large representative sample of Ontario adults. Method: This study was based on data from the CAMH Monitor, an ongoing cross-sectional telephone survey of Ontario adults 18 years and older from 2002 to 2005. Three age groups were examined: 18-34 (n = 1,294), 35-54 (n = 2,428), and 55+ (n = 1,576). For each age group sample, a logistic regression analysis was conducted of self-reported collision involvement in the last 12 months by risk factor measures of driving exposure (kilometers driven in a typical week, driving is stressful, and driving on busy roads), consuming five or more drinks of alcohol on one occasion (past 12 months), cannabis use (lifetime, and past 12 months), and driving after drinking among drinkers (past 12 months), controlling for demographics (gender, region, income, and marital status). Results: The study identified differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of the three age groups of adult drivers. The logistic regression model for the youngest group revealed that drivers who reported that driving was stressful at least some of the time, drank five or more drinks on an occasion, and drove after drinking had an increased risk of collision involvement. For the middle age group, those who reported using cannabis in the last 12 months had significantly increased odds of reporting collision involvement. None of the risk factor measures showed significant associations with collision risk for older drivers (aged 55+). Impact: The results suggest potential areas for intervention and new directions for future research.     

Are indigenous forest reserves sustainable? An analysis of present and future land-use trends in Bosawas,Nicaragua

SUMMARY

In recent years, indigenous tenure over forest lands has emerged as a means to conserve forests while recognizing indigenous rights. There is concern, however, that indigenous reserves may not be an appropriate policy tool for sustained forest conservation. Our research examined how recognition of indigenous common-property rights has controlled agricultural expansion and conserved forests in Bosawas Biosphere Reserve, Nicaragua. We used satellite imagery with empirical data gathered in the field on land-use institutions, population pressures, and land-use practices to compare whether indigenous communities under territorial management or public management are better able to (1) control the ‘fast threat’ of frontier expansion and (2) address the long-term ecological threats posed by indigenous land-use practices and institutional changes in the region. Our findings are that indigenous residents who share common-property rights over their territories are better able to control agricultural expansion than are indigenous residents living on public lands. With respect to the long-term threats to the region, a series of simulations of possible land-use pressures demonstrate that the enforcement of territorial boundaries and further development of indigenous forest management rules will prove crucial in determining land-use capacity and deforestation over the next 50 years.     

The global distribution of human population and recent volcanism

Abstract

This study quantifies the spatial relationship between the global distribution of human population and recent volcanism. Using recently compiled databases of population and Holocene volcanoes, we estimate that almost 9% (455 × 10⁶ people) of the world's 1990 population lived within 100km of an historically active volcano and 12% within 100km of a volcano believed to have been active during the last 10,000 years. The analysis also indicates that average population density generally decreases with distance from these volcanoes (within 200 km). In tropical areas, the elevation and fertile soils associated with volcanic regions can provide incentives for agrarian populations to settle close to potentially active volcanoes. In Southeast Asia and Central America higher population densities lie in closer proximity to volcanoes than in other volcanic regions. In Japan and Chile, population density tends to increase with distance from volcanoes. The current trends of rapid urbanization and sustained population growth in tropical developing countries, combined with agricultural intensification of fertile volcanic terrains could alter the relationship between humans and volcanoes so as to increase both local and global consequences of volcanic eruptions in the future.     

Population structure and community characteristics of Acer catalpifolium Rehd北大核心CSCD

Acer catalpifolium Rehd., a critically endangered tree species with an extremely limited range of distribution, is one of the 120 plant species with extremely small populations, as approved by the state forestry administration of the People's Republic of China and requires urgent rescue action. In order to comprehensively understand the population status and the future developmental trend of A. catalpifolium, the plant communities were investigated from 5 sites, including Caishenmiao (CSM), Banruosi (BRS), Zhangshancun (ZSC), Fuhusi (FHS), and Baoguosi (BGS). The population structure of A. catalpifolium as well as the species composition and community characteristics of its habitat were investigated. The results showed that A. catalpifolium is mainly distributed in the evergreen broad-leaved and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forests, in different community layers, namely, the tree layer, shrub layer, and herb layer, and is accompanied by 52, 74, and 52 plant species, respectively. Analyses of the distribution of population abundance revealed that BRS had the largest distribution of A. catalpifolium, accounting for 26.04% of the total population, followed by FHS, ZSC, BGS, and CSM, in that order. Analyses of the community characteristics revealed that the species diversity indices in FHS, BRS, BGS, and CSM were greater than that in ZSC. Analyses of the population age structure of A. catalpifolium revealed the gap in the distribution of the levels of seedlings and young trees. There were serious obstacles to the regeneration of the natural population. We concluded that the obstacle to the regeneration of the population of A. catalpifolium might be caused by the high competitive pressure from the dominant species and the micro-environment in the forest. Understanding the community characteristics and the population structure of A. catalpifolium could provide a theoretical foundation for its reintroduction and recovery. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

中国北方干燥地城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响——以呼和浩特-包头-鄂尔多斯城市群地区为例

理解中国北方干燥地城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响对提高干燥地人类福祉和实现区域可持续发展具有重要的意义。为此,论文以正在经历快速城市化的呼和浩特-包头-鄂尔多斯（呼包鄂）地区为例,从区域、城市和旗县3个尺度上揭示了该地区1990—2013年城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响。首先,量化了呼包鄂地区1990年的生境质量、粮食生产、肉类生产和碳储量4种关键生态系统服务。然后,分析了1990—2013年呼包鄂地区的城市扩展过程。最后,在区域、城市和旗县3个尺度上评价了呼包鄂地区1990—2013年城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响。结果显示,1990—2013年,呼包鄂地区经历了快速的城市扩展过程,城市用地面积从314.22 km²增加到692.10 km²,增长了1.2倍。区域城市扩展过程导致4种生态系统服务均明显下降。其中,粮食生产服务损失最严重,损失量达1.36×10⁴ t,约占1990年全区粮食生产总量的1%。边缘型和飞地型城市扩展对生态系统服务的影响最明显。1990—2013年,边缘型城市扩展导致的粮食生产、肉类生产和碳储量损失量占区域城市扩展过程中各项服务损失总量的比例均超过60%,飞地型城市扩展造成的肉类生产服务损失量大于区域城市扩展过程中该服务损失总量的1/3。边缘型和飞地型城市扩展过程导致的耕地和草地大量减少是造成生态系统服务快速下降的主要原因。因此,建议在呼包鄂地区的城市化进程中应提高城市用地利用率,控制边缘型和飞地型城市扩展,以减少城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响。     

Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.     

Influence of low and decreasing food levels on Daphnia-algal interactions: Numerical experiments with a new dynamic energy budget model

Based on numerical experiments with a new physiologically structured population model we demonstrate that predator physiology under low food and under starving conditions can have substantial implications for population dynamics in predator-prey interactions. We focused on Daphnia-algae interactions as model system and developed a new dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for individual daphnids. This model integrates the κ-rule approach common to net assimilation models into a net-production model, but uses a fixed allocation of net-productive energy in juveniles. The new DEB-model agrees well with the results of life history experiments with Daphnia. Compared to a pure κ-rule model the new allocation scheme leads to significant earlier maturation at low food levels and thus is in better agreement with the data. Incorporation of the new DEB-model into a physiologically structured population model using a box-car elevator technique revealed that the dynamics of Daphnia-algae interactions are highly sensitive to the assumptions on the energy allocation of juveniles under low food conditions. Additionally we show that also other energy allocation rules of our DEB-model concerning decreasing food levels and starving conditions at the individual level have strong implications for Daphnia-algae interactions at the population level. With increasing carrying capacity of algae a stable equilibrium with coexistence of Daphnia occurs and algae shifts to limit cycles. The amplitudes of the limit cycles increase with increasing percentage of sustainable weight loss. If a κ-rule energy allocation is applied to juveniles, the stable equilibrium occurs for a much narrower range of algal carrying capacities, the algal concentration at equilibrium is about 2 times larger, and the range of algae carrying capacities at which daphnids become extinct extends to higher carrying capacities than in the new DEB-model. Because predator-prey dynamics are very sensitive to predator physiology under low food and starving conditions, empirical constraints of predator physiology under these conditions are essential when comparing model results with observations in laboratory experiments or in the field.     

Will progress in science and technology avert or accelerate global collapse? A critical analysis and policy recommendations

Industrial society will move towards collapse if its total environmental impact (I), expressed either in terms of energy and materials use or in terms of pollution, increases with time, i.e., dI/dt > 0. The traditional interpretation of the I = PAT equation reflects the optimistic belief that technological innovation, particularly improvements in eco-efficiency, will significantly reduce the technology (T) factor, and thereby result in a corresponding decline in impact (I). Unfortunately, this interpretation of the I = PAT equation ignores the effects of technological change on the other two factors: population (P) and per capita affluence (A). A more heuristic formulation of this equation is I = P(T)·A(T)·T in which the dependence of P and A on T is apparent. From historical evidence, it is clear that technological revolutions (tool-making, agricultural, and industrial) have been the primary driving forces behind successive population explosions, and that modern communication and transportation technologies have been employed to transform a large proportion of the world’s inhabitants into consumers of material- and energy-intensive products and services. In addition, factor analysis from neoclassical growth theory and the rebound effect provide evidence that science and technology have played a key role in contributing to rising living standards. While technological change has thus contributed to significant increases in both P and A, it has at the same time brought about considerable eco-efficiency improvements. Unfortunately, reductions in the T-factor have generally not been sufficiently rapid to compensate for the simultaneous increases in both P and A. As a result, total impact, in terms of energy production, mineral extraction, land-use and CO₂ emissions, has in most cases increased with time, indicating that industrial society is nevertheless moving towards collapse. The belief that continued and even accelerated scientific research and technological innovation will automatically result in sustainability and avert collapse is at best mistaken. Innovations in science and technology will be necessary but alone will be insufficient for sustainability. Consequently, what is most needed are specific policies designed to decrease total impact, such as (a) halting population growth via effective population stabilization plans and better access to birth control methods, (b) reducing total matter-energy throughput and pollution by removing perverse subsidies, imposing regulations that limit waste discharges and the depletion of non-renewable resources, and implementing ecological tax reform, and (c) moving towards a steady-state economy in which per-capita affluence is stabilized at lower levels by replacing wasteful conspicuous material consumption with social alternatives known to enhance subjective well-being. While science and technology must play an important role in the implementation of these policies, none will be enacted without a fundamental change in society’s dominant values of growth and exploitation. Thus, value change is the most important prerequisite for avoiding global collapse.