Evaluation of discrete host–parasitoid models for diamondback moth and Diadegma semiclausum field time population density series

The performance of discrete mathematical models to describe the population dynamics of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) and its parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known models (Nicholson–Bailey, Hassell and Varley, Beddington, Free and Lawton, May, Holling type 2, 3 and Getz and Mills functional responses) were estimated. The models were tested on 20 consecutive sets of time series data collected at 14 days interval for pest and parasitoid populations obtained from a highland cabbage growing area in eastern Kenya. Model parameters were estimated from minimized squared difference between the numerical solution of the model equations and the empirical data using Powell's method. Maximum calculated DBM growth rates varied between 0.02 and 0.07. The carrying capacity determined at 16.5 DBM/plant by the Beddington et al. model was within the range of field data. However, all the estimated parameter values relating to the parasitoid, including the instantaneous searching rate (0.07–0.28), per capita searching efficiency (0.20–0.27), search time (5.20–5.33), handling time (0.77–0.90), and parasitism aggregation index (0.33), were well outside the range encountered empirically. All models evaluated for DBM under Durbin–Watson criteria, except the May model, were not autocorrelated with respect to residuals. In contrast, the criteria applied to the parasitoid residuals showed strong autocorrelations. Thus, these models failed to estimate parasitoid dynamics. We conclude that the interactions of the DBM with its parasitoid cannot be explained by any of the models tested. Two factors may be associated with this failure. First, the parasitoid in this integrated biological control system may not be playing a major role in regulating DBM population. Second, and perhaps more likely, poor correlations reflect gross inadequacies in the theoretical assumptions that underlie the existing models.     

Integrated measures for preservation, restoration and improvement of the environmental conditions of the Lagoon Olho d'Água basin

The Lagoon Olho d'Água in Pernambuco State, Northeast Brazil has received increasing environmental concern due to significant stress from pollution in the catchment. The existing environmental problems are the result of great pressure from a broad range of human activities, especially in the last 10 years. Serious pollution exists mainly from some industrial and urban activities, which increased intensively after the eighties. There is a strong social and economical pressure for housing and construction near the lagoon, due to the available land nearby beaches and estuarine zone, and recently by growing tourism activities. Uncontrolled land use by low-income communities and the pressure for construction by developers have led to landfilling and to deterioration of water quality in the lagoon catchment. Improvement of the environmental conditions in the catchment needs integrated measures. Guidelines and some specific actions involving several institutions have been established and refer to sanitation and urban infrastructure as the main priorities. A main target is the construction of low-cost sewage system with smaller and decentralised treatment plants.     

Urban expansion and its contribution to the regional carbon emissions: Using the model based on the population density distribution

The method is used for calculating regional urban area dynamics and the resulting carbon emissions (from the land-conversion) for the period of 1980 till 2050 for the eight world regions. This approach is based on the fact that the spatial distribution of population density is close to the two-parametric Γ-distribution [Kendall, M.G., Stuart, A., 1958. The Advanced Theory of Statistics, vol. 1.2. Academic Press, New York; Vaughn, R., 1987. Urban Spatial Traffic Patterns, Pion, London]. The developed model provides us with the scenario of urbanisation, based on which the regional and world dynamics of carbon emissions and export from cities, and the annual total urban carbon balance are estimated. According to our estimations, world annual emissions of carbon as a result of urbanisation increase up to 1.25 GtC in 2005 and begin to decrease afterwards. If we compare the emission maximum with the annual emission caused by deforestation, 1.36 GtC per year, then we can say that the role of urbanised territories (UT) in the global carbon balance is of a comparable magnitude. Regarding the world annual export of carbon from UT, we observe its monotonous growth by three times, reaching 505 MtC. The latter, is comparable to the amount of carbon transported by rivers into the ocean (196–537 MtC). The current model shows that urbanisation is inhibited in the interval 2020–2030, and by 2050 the growth of urbanised areas would almost stop. Hence, the total balance, being almost constant until 2000, then starts to decrease at an almost constant rate. By the end of the XXI century, the total carbon balance will be equal to zero, with the exchange flows fully balanced, and may even be negative, with the system beginning to take up carbon from the atmosphere, i.e., becomes a “sink”. The regional dynamics is somewhat more complex, i.e., some regions, like China, Asia and Pacific are being active sources of Carbon through the studied period, while others are changing from source to sink or continue to be neutral in respect the GCC.     

Population as an oscillating system

In this paper we present a new approach describing population dynamics based on the view of a population as an oscillating system. To develop a mathematical model of an oscillating population, we applied a third-order differential equation. Our model describes population dynamics within a parametric-temporal continuum, formed by the relative values of population growth and decrease over time. In this paper we also illustrate how our oscillative model effectively compliments the existing suite of models in population dynamics.     

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform, triangular, and exponential random variables.     

Song dialects do not restrict gene flow in an urban population of the orange-tufted sunbird, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nectarinia osea</Emphasis>

Geographic variation in vocalizations is widespread in passerine birds, but its origins and maintenance remain unclear. In this study, we test the hypothesis that song dialect, a culturally transmitted trait, is related to the population genetic structure of the orange-tufted sunbird, Nectarinia osea. To address this, we compared mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence variation together with allele frequencies at five microsatellite loci from an urban population of sunbirds exhibiting two distinct song dialects on a microgeographic scale. Our findings reveal no association between dialect membership and genetic composition. All genetic measures, from both mitochondrial and nuclear DNA, indicate high levels of gene flow between both dialect populations. The low F _ST values obtained from mtDNA and microsatellite analysis imply that the variation among dialects does not account for more than 2%, at best, of the overall genetic variation found in the entire population. These measures fall well within the range of similar measures obtained in other studies of species exhibiting vocal dialects, most of which fail to detect any dialect-based genetic differentiation. The persistence of dialects in the orange-tufted sunbird may thus best be explained by dispersal of individuals across dialect boundaries and possibly from surrounding areas, followed by postdispersal vocal matching. Because genetic structuring appears weaker than cultural structure in this species, we discuss the behavioral mechanisms underlying dialect maintenance in the presence of apparent gene flow.     

安徽省中小型城市用地扩展研究——以滁州市为例

以滁州市1966年的地形图,1978年、1987年、1995年、2000年及2006年的遥感影像为数据源,提取滁州市6个时段的建成区面积对其用地扩展进行了研究。结果表明,滁州市建成区面积在1966-2006年间面积增加了7．84倍,扩展速度经历了先快后慢的过程;发展方向以东南方向为主,40年间城市中心向东、南方向分别迁移了1084m和1940m对揭示安徽省中小型城市用地的发展特征具有一定意义。     

Assessment of population exposure to particulate matter pollution in Chongqing, China

To determine the population exposure to PM(10) in Chongqing, China, we developed an indirect model by combining information on the time activity patterns of various demographic subgroups with estimates of the PM(10) concentrations in different microenvironments (MEs). The spatial and temporal variations of the exposure to PM(10) were illustrated in a geographical information system (GIS). The population weighted exposure (PWE) for the entire population was 229, 155 and 211 microg/m(3), respectively, in winter, summer and as the annual average. Indoor PM(10) level at home was the largest contributor to the PWE, especially for the rural areas where high pollution levels were found due to solid fuels burning. Elder people had higher PM(10) exposure than adults and youth, due to more time spent in indoor MEs. The highest health risk due to particulate was found in the city zone and northeast regions, suggesting that pollution abatement should be prioritized in these areas.     

Should Habitat Trading Be Based on Mitigation Ratios Derived from Landscape Indices? A Model-Based Analysis of Compensatory Restoration Options for the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker

Many species of conservation concern are spatially structured and require dispersal to be persistent. For such species, altering the distribution of suitable habitats on the landscape can affect population dynamics in ways that are difficult to predict from simple models. We argue that for such species, individual-based and spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) should be used to determine appropriate levels of off-site restoration to compensate for on-site loss of ecologic resources. Such approaches are necessary when interactions between biologic processes occur at different spatial scales (i.e., local [recruitment] and landscape [migration]). The sites of restoration and habitat loss may be linked to each other, but, more importantly, they may be linked to other resources in the landscape by regional biologic processes, primarily migration. The common management approach for determining appropriate levels of off-site restoration is to derive mitigation ratios based on best professional judgment or pre-existing data. Mitigation ratios assume that the ecologic benefits at the site of restoration are independent of the ecologic costs at the site of habitat loss. Using an SEPM for endangered red-cockaded woodpeckers, we show that the spatial configuration of habitat restoration can simultaneously influence both the rate of recruitment within breeding groups and the rate of migration among groups, implying that simple mitigation ratios may be inadequate.