中国城市化发展决定因素的地区差异

城市化的发展与地方经济发展水平和劳动力迁移密切相关，中重城市化进程中的一个显著特征是区域差异非常明显，其根源是在国内经济发展水平不同的各地区，影响城市化发展的诸因素之发育程度及所起作用不同。本文运用平行数据《panal》模型，对影响中国各省、直辖市和自治区城市化发展的请因素进行了实证分析。主要结论为：①各地区之间，特别是沿海与内地之间。城市化进程的差异非常显著。②在中部地区，第二产业的发展对当地城市化水平的提高起推动作用；而在沿海地区，则由第三产业扮演着更为重要的角色。③对外开放政策对推动中国的城市化发展起了显著作用，在沿海省份表现尤为突出。由此可以推断。中、西部开放力度的加大将推动当地城市化的发展。④农村非农产业的发展在城市化进程中发挥着双重作用：在沿海和西部地区，农村非农产业对城市化起补充作用；而在中部地区，则起替代作用。     

Analysis and Modeling on the Spatial Structure of Urban Land Use: A Case of Jinan, China

Based on the data of urban land use obtained by remote sensing interpretation from aero images in 1986 and 2004, the spatial structure of Jinan is studied in this paper with the method of Geographic Information System (GIS). According to the proportion of land for residence, industry and commerce, the urban district can be distinguished into three rings. Compared with the traditional theory of the ring structure in Western coun- tries, they have many distinctive characteristics. The main func- tions of the inner ring include residence, business and banking, but the proportion of residential land (more than 50%) is considerably higher than that of the cities in Western countries. The land proportion for residence and industry in the intermediate ring is equal on the whole. The main land of the outside ring is for industrial use. From 1986 to 2004, great changes have taken place on the land proportion of different types of use. In the inner ring, the land for residential and industrial use has shrunk much while the land for commercial use has increased. In the intermediate ring, the changes of the three types of land use were not very much and the temporal variation was relatively stable. On the contrary, the structure in the outside ring varies acutely. Though most of it is also for industrial use, the proportion of residential land has in- creased much. The three rings can also be divided into several sectors respectively, according to the function of land use clusters. New trends and mechanisms of the changes of land use impacting the urban structure were proposed in the end of the paper.     

Structure of pathways in ecological networks: relationships between length and number

In ecosystems network, structure determines adjacent (direct) and non-adjacent (indirect) pathways over which energy, matter, and information can flow. The more pathways, the more possible ways the conservative substance can move in zero-sum transactions between network nodes that the pathways interconnect, and the more possible non-conservative, nonzero-sum relations can be secondarily derived from these. Structural analysis is a tool we employ, from a family of input–output methods for exploring zero- and nonzero-sum attributes of environmental networks, to count pathways of varying length between network nodes. In this paper, we examine the relationship between pathway length (k) and number (P_k) as determined by system size (n, number of nodes) and extent and pattern of connectance (C). We develop a measure (m_a) of pathway growth in numbers with increasing length, and then normalize this to the maximum rate possible (m_a/m_c) for a given system size. These measures apply to two pathway types—paths, m_a(0) and m_a(0)/m_c(0), which forbid adjacent node repetitions, and walks, m_a(1) and m_a(1)/m_c(1), which allow them. We find that network size has a curvilinear effect on the pathway number versus length relationship, and extent and pattern of connectance are convolved. Values computed for the paths and walks of three ecosystem models (oyster reef, freshwater marsh, and reservoir cove) are used to compare their pathway structure.     

Mechanisms of changes in population numbers of Caucasian red deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cervus elaphus maral</Emphasis>) in the northwestern Caucasus

Mechanisms of changes in the numbers of red deer in the Caucasian State Biosphere Reserve (the northwestern Caucasus) were studied from 1958 to 2004 using simulation models developed on the basis of concepts concerning the combined effect of density-dependent and density-independent factors. The results show that changes in population numbers are accounted for by larger (more numerous) local subunits, with small groups remaining relatively stable. In the periods of depression, such a mechanism provides for the maintenance of the spatial population structure.     

乌江干流中上游水电梯级开发水温累积效应

以乌江流域洪家渡库尾至乌江渡坝下的水电工程干扰典型段为研究区域，利用建坝前后的水温实测资料，采用建坝前天然水温和建坝后下泄水温比较法，对乌江干流梯级水库水温时空分布特征进行分析。研究结果表明：对天然水温改变最大的电站为洪家渡和乌江渡，前者是受水库水温结构自身影响，后者是梯级联合运行的结果；梯级联合运行使库区水温分层有所减弱，随着时间的推移或上游梯级电站的建成，电站下泄水温年变化过程趋于均化，与天然水温的延迟也越加明显；不同的水库水温结构对水温累积效应的影响也各不相同，稳定分层型水库对水温累积具有正效应，混合型水库具有负效应，过渡型水库处于两者之间，体现了梯级电站的水温累积影响，为研究减缓下泄低温水的对策措施提供依据和参考。     

陕西渭南地区土地生产潜力及其人口承载量

本文以多年大量的资源考察、经济统计资料为依据,运用系统动力学方法,通过建立包括土地资源、水资源和种植业、畜牧业、渔业等为主的土地生产潜力模型及人口发展预测模型,对未来40年渭南地区不同投入状况下土地生产潜力及其不同消费水平下的人口承载量,作了趋势性定量分析和预测,并得出渭南地区具有较大的土地潜在人口支持能力的基本结论。     

模糊线性规划在灾害对策中的应用

本文把模糊线性规划方法引入灾害对策的研究当中。着重讨论了疏散人口和疏散地点间的关系,简单介绍了模糊疏散距离及其初步确定方法。     

甘肃省作物布局演变及其对区域气候变暖的响应

根据甘肃省1985-2005年的气候资料和同时期主要作物播种面积等统计资料,利用快速聚类分析方法分析了气候变暖背景下甘肃省主要作物的种植格局和种植界限演变情况。结果表明:过去20 a里特别是进入20世纪90年代,在河西地区,玉米和棉花播种范围扩张趋势明显,种植面积比重显著增加,春小麦种植面积比重快速降低,种植范围大幅向祁连山浅山区退缩,种植结构的这种调整使玉米和棉花逐渐取代小麦成为河西主要作物,并最终导致该区主要作物种植格局从以小麦为主转变为以玉米和棉花为主;在中部地区,春小麦面积逐年缩小,冬小麦和杂粮种植扩张,玉米的种植比例逐年上升,马铃薯种植逐渐形成规模,形成了以小麦和玉米为主的种植格局;在东南部地区,春小麦和冬小麦面积逐年缩小,玉米、冬油菜和其他喜温的经济作物种植比例逐年上升。相关分析表明,上述作物种植格局的变化与气候变暖带来的积温增加及积温带北移东扩密切相关。     

基于PCR-TGGE技术的餐厨垃圾厌氧消化微生物群落结构解析

为了解不同负荷下单相餐厨垃圾厌氧消化反应器内微生物群落结构演替特征,在单相厌氧消化反应器负荷为2.0～8.5kg·m-·3d-1(以VS计)的不同负荷条件下取样,运用16SrDNA的PCR-TGGE技术对反应器内微生物进行动态追踪.同时,运用Dice系统和NMDS软件对PCR-TGGE图谱进行分析.结果表明,负荷为4.0～6.0kg·m-·3d-1时,微生物群落结构变化不大;负荷为6.0～7.0kg·m-·3d-1时,微生物群落结构变化较为明显;负荷分别为7.0～8.0kg·m-·3d-1及8.5kg·m-·3d-1时,微生物群落结构变化最为明显.纵观整个过程,在餐厨垃圾厌氧消化反应器有机负荷在2.0～8.5kg·m-·3d-1下厌氧反应器内的微生物群落结构存在明显的阶段性演替;负荷为7.0kg·m-·3d-1时微生物群落结构的丰富度最好.     

聚合物/表面活性剂二元体系对油水界面性质的影响

文章应用界面张力仪、Zeta电位仪和表面黏弹性仪测定了聚合物、表面活性剂及其二元复合体系的质量浓度对油水界面性质的影响,并应用透射电镜观察了采出液的液膜结构。结果表明,随着聚合物质量浓度的增加,油水界面的界面剪切黏度值和界面张力值增大,颗粒表面Zeta电位的绝对值增大;随着表面活性剂质量浓度的增加,油水界面的界面剪切黏度变化幅度很小,但界面张力显著减小,颗粒表面Zeta电位绝对值增大;聚合物与表面活性剂复合能够形成稳定的聚合体,具有较大的界面剪切黏度值,较小的界面张力和较高的Zeta电位值;体系中聚合物、表面活性剂及水中悬浮物形成了类似"晶体"结构。