Population viability of the Siberian Tiger in a changing landscape: Going, going and gone?

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is a flagship species of the boreal forest ecosystem in northeastern China and Russia Far East. During the past century, the tiger population has declined sharply from more than 3000 to fewer than 600 individuals, and its habitat has become much smaller and greatly fragmented. Poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation have been widely recognized as the primary causes for the observed population decline. Using a population viability analysis tool (RAMAS/GIS), we simulated the effects of poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation on the population dynamics and extinction risk of the Amur tiger, and then explored the relative effectiveness of three conservation strategies involving improving habitat quality and establishing movement corridors in China and Russia. A series of controlled simulation experiments were performed based on the current spatial distribution of habitat and field-observed vital rates. Our results showed that the Amur tiger population could be viable for the next 100 years if the current habitat area and quality were well-maintained, with poaching strictly prohibited of the tigers and their main prey species. Poaching and habitat degradation (mainly prey scarcity) had the largest negative impacts on the tiger population persistence. While the effect of habitat loss was also substantial, habitat fragmentation per se had less influence on the long-term fate of the tiger population. However, to sustain the subpopulations in both Russia and China would take much greater conservation efforts. The viability of the Chinese population of tigers would rely heavily on its connectivity with the largest patch on the other side of the border. Improving the habitat quality of small patches only or increasing habitat connectivity through movement corridors alone would not be enough to guarantee the long-term population persistence of the Amur tiger in both Russia and China. The only conservation strategy that allowed for long-term persistence of tigers in both countries required both the improvement of habitat quality and the establishment of a transnational reserve network. Our study provides new insights into the metapopulation dynamics and persistence of the Amur tiger, which should be useful in landscape and conservation planning for protecting the biggest cat species in the world.     

Using simulation to explore the functional relationships of terrestrial carnivore population indices

Population indices based on visits to detection stations commonly are used to monitor wildlife populations. Inferences about populations are based on 1 of 2 measures: (1) change in the proportion of stations visited at least once or (2) change in the cumulative number of visits by unique individuals. The functional relationships between index responses and population density is poorly understood and can lead to misinterpretation of index data when an incorrect functional relationship (e.g. linear) is assumed. We created a flexible simulation environment to study the response of detection-based population indices under a wide variety of conditions meant to reflect species life history and study design. Proportional indices exhibited non-linear saturating responses to changes in population density while cumulative indices responded linearly. Shapes of responses were functions of home range sizes, individual detection probabilities, and spatial arrangement of animals and sampling stations. Non-linear relationships of proportional indices lead to under-estimation of mean population density when data are aggregated from multiple detection stations deployed in a heterogeneous landscape. Cumulative indices have significant statistical advantages over proportional indices including smaller sample sizes required to detect density change, linearity, consistent index responses across a wide range of densities, and ability to aggregate data to meet minimum sample size requirements. Our simulation provides a flexible tool for the interpretation of station-based population indices.     

Forecasting population trend from the scaling pattern of occupancy

Forecasting the temporal trend of a focal species, its range expansion or retraction, provides crucial information regarding population viability. To this end, we require the accumulation of temporal records which is evidently time consuming. Progress in spatial data capturing has enabled rapid and accurate assessment of species distribution across large scales. Therefore, it would be appealing to infer the temporal trends of populations from the spatial structure of their distributions. Based on a combination of models from the fields of range dynamics, occupancy scaling and spatial autocorrelation, here I present a model for forecasting the population trend solely from its spatial distribution. Numerical tests using cellular automata confirm a positive correlation, as inferred from the model, between the temporal change in species range sizes and the exponent of the power-law scaling pattern of occupancy. The model is thus recommended for rapid estimation of species range dynamics from a single snapshot of its current distribution. Further applications in biodiversity conservation could provide a swift risk assessment, especially, for endangered and invasive species.     

北京建成区道路绿化空间结构和行道树健康状况

采用实地普查测量方法,定量研究了北京建成区188条道路行道树的树种结构、径级分布、立木层次和健康状况。结果表明,国槐（Sophora japonica）、毛白杨（Populus alba）、银杏（Ginkgo biloba）是建成区主要行道树种,使用量分别占研究区树木总株数的54．7％、13．7％和7．4％。建成区树木...     

基于低碳经济的天津产业结构调整战略

以低碳经济理论为指导,分析了近年来天津产业结构调整成效和存在的不足,认为天津产业结构的“高碳锁定效应”仍较明显。按照发展低碳经济的要求,提出了天津产业结构调整战略：一是加强增量控制,产业增量向第三产业倾斜,逐步“减工业化”;工业增量向高新技术产业、战略性新兴产业倾斜,逐步“降重工业化”;严格限制新增高耗能产业项目,从源...     

长柄石杉居群遗传多样性和遗传结构的AFLP分析

石杉科植物因所含石杉碱甲(Huperzine A)对中老年痴呆等具有良好疗效,近年来倍受关注.利用AFLP分子标记对武夷山脉广布种长柄石杉[Huperzia serrata(Thunb.ex Murray)Trev.var.longipetiolata(Spring)H.M.Chang]7个居群112株个体进行遗传多样性和居群遗传结构分析.选用多态性高、分辨力强的8对选择性扩增引物组合共获得675个位点,其中多态位点比例为69.38%.居群内观测等位基因数(Na)为1.633,有效等位基因数(Ne)1.493;Nei’s基因多样性指数(He)与Shannon多态性信息指数(I)的平均值分别为0.272和0.392,多样性最高为地处武夷山脉中段的泰宁居群和建宁居群,最低为山脉北段的光泽居群.居群总基因多样性(Ht)为0.327 3,居群内基因多样性(Hs)为0.272 2,居群间的遗传分化系数(Gst)为0.168 1,表明居群内变异是长柄石杉遗传多样性的主要来源.由Gst估计,武夷山脉长柄石杉自然居群的基因流(Nm)为2.474 0.邻接树分析表明居群间遗传亲缘关系与地理位置相关.武夷山脉长柄石杉较高的遗传多样性和基因流水平表明其仍然具有相当的适应(生存)能力和进化潜力,这可能与其生物学(异交水平)、生态学特性及武夷山脉相对良好的生境条件有关.     

曝气复氧对底泥氮素生物地球化学循环影响的作用机制研究

通过分析底泥氮污染物释放规律和转化过程,以及底泥生境、氮形态变化和氮循环功能微生物群落结构变化的规律,探讨了不同曝气复氧条件影响底泥氮生物地球化学循环的生物代谢、物理化学联合作用的机制。结果表明：曝气复氧对底泥中氮的生物地球化学循环影响是一个包括微生物代谢作用和物理化学作用的复杂联合作用过程。水体好氧环境的改变主要引起参与底泥氮循环的硝化、亚硝化和反硝化功能菌群群落结构的演变,对异养菌和氨化菌的影响不大,证明环境好氧条件的改变对底泥有机质生物分解产生氨氮的微生物代谢过程影响不大,主要对底泥释放的氨氮硝化、反硝化等生物转化过程产生大的影响。不同溶解氧条件下,底泥释放的氮素在微生物作用下主要以NH4＋-N和NO3--N的形式进入试验体系,并在特定的氧化还原电位（临界值-200 mV）和pH（临界值6.70）条件下通过物理化学作用在底泥中以离子交换态氮（IEF-N）、碳酸盐结合态氮（CF-N）、铁锰氧化态氮（IMOF-N）及有机态和硫化物结合态氮（OSF-N）等不同形态氮相互转化,同时,在氮的转化和循环过程中部分输入上覆水体。在低溶解氧组实验条件下[ρ（DO）〈0.5 mg.L-1],底泥向水体输出氮总量为底泥可转化态氮的19.7%,主要为氨氮,最大释放速率达到289.13 mg.m-2.d-1,释放的质量浓度可达到18.8 mg.L-1;好氧条件下（DO饱和）,底泥向水体输出氮总量为底泥可转化态氮的1.8%;好氧-缺氧条件下为11.7%,主要以N2的形式释出系统。     

Larrea tridentata叶片解剖结构与保水特性的研究

为了解L.tridentata叶片在解剖学方面适应干旱的特征以及叶片的保水特性,采用石蜡切片法观察L.tridentata叶片的解剖结构,同时测定叶片保水曲线。结果显示：L.tridentata叶片厚233.6μm,表皮细胞大,具有较厚的表皮细胞外壁与角质层,上表皮外壁与角质层总厚度为23.7μm;栅栏组织发达,在叶片中占55%,细胞细长,排列紧密。从叶片保水曲线上看,L.tridentata叶片从失水到基本恒重的时间为120 h左右,显示其叶片抗脱水能力强。     

地质因素对煤层瓦斯赋存影响的研究

为研究地质因素对煤层瓦斯赋存的影响,针对淮北矿区石台煤矿3煤层,采用瓦斯地质块段划分的方法,以井田内主要断层和天然焦区为界,把3煤层划分为3个独立的地质块段,分区对不同地质块段内地质因素对煤层瓦斯赋存规律进行研究,分析褶皱构造、断裂构造及岩浆侵蚀等对煤层瓦斯压力和瓦斯涌出量的影响。结果表明:地质构造对瓦斯保存和运移起到重要作用,岩浆岩侵入对石台煤矿3煤层煤与瓦斯突出的控制作用最为明显,地质块段的划分(分区管理)对地质构造复杂的高瓦斯及煤与瓦斯突出矿井具有重要意义。