基于数值模拟的泥石流危险性分区方法

由于泥石流运动方程研究和计算机技术的迅速发展使得基于数值模拟的泥石流危险性分区方法已成为泥石流危险性分区的主要方法.该方法也是这一领域最为有效的定量方法,并被大量应用于泥石流灾害评估、土地利用规划和灾害制图中.在分析泥石流运动数值模拟方法和根据模拟结果进行分区研究现状的基础上,指出了该方法在数值模型的建立、分区指标的确定以及指标分级中存在的问题,并针对这些问题提出了解决方法.     

Computer-aided classification of forest cover types from small scale aerial photography

The US National Park Service must map forest cover types over extensive areas in order to fulfill its goal of maintaining or reconstructing presettlement vegetation within national parks and monuments. Furthermore, such cover type maps must be updated on a regular basis to document vegetation changes. Computer-aided classification of small scale aerial photography is a promising technique for generating forest cover type maps efficiently and inexpensively. In this study, seven cover types were classified with an overall accuracy of 62 percent from a reproduction of a 1120,000 color infrared transparency of a conifer-hardwood forest. The results were encouraging, given the degraded quality of the photograph and the fact that features were not centered, as well as the lack of information on lens vignetting characteristics to make corrections. Suggestions are made for resolving these problems in future research and applications. In addition, it is hypothesized that the overall accuracy is artificially low because the computer-aided classification more accurately portrayed the intermixing of cover types than the hand-drawn maps to which it was compared.     

FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT NEEDS PECULIAR TO ARID CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Many practices followed uniformly nationwide in the federal flood control and floodplain management programs are inappropriate or even counter productive in the arid Utah climate. An analysis of the 130-year Utah flood history, the structural and nonstructural flood programs in the state, and local perceptions obtained by field visits and interviews in 35 Utah communities revealed a number of such inefficiencies. Since flood flows dissipate quickly when they emerge from mountain watersheds onto desert lowlands, risks are concentrated near the apex of alluvial fans, include hazard from mud as well as water flow, and are compounded by canal interception of flood waters. Because of variation in the area flooded from one event to the next, floodplain mapping has tended to show risks too high in mapped areas and too low outside. Traditional channelization carries floods downstream past where they would dissipate naturally. The federal government needs to become more active in developing better flood hazard delineation and structural and nonstructural designs for arid areas. State government can help by providing a forum where communities can exchange experiences, reviewing structural designs prepared by local government, and providing local communities with technical expertise for dealing with federal agencies.     

Health effects from the nuclear fuel cycle and other sources in perspective

The data base for each process of the nuclear fuel cycle has been updated as a part of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The BNL Energy System Network Simulator (ESNS) was modified to accommodate the new data, and methodology was developed for estimating population dose and health effects resulting from atmosphere releases of radioactive materials from the nuclear fuel cycle.Estimates of population dose and health effects were made using these new CONAES emission data and the new model for three scenarios out to the year 2000: (1) no reprocessing; (2) reprocessing, 1-year cooling; and (3) reprocessing, 5-year cooling. Results indicate that radon emissions from mining and milling of uranium bearing ores will have greater impacts than any other component in the open nuclear fuel cycle. The estimated number of health effects will depend, to a large extent, on the lung model mechanism assumed to induce cancer; i.e., either the smeared or the unsmeared model. The smear model and the linear relationship predict for scenario 1, 630; for scenario 2, 949; and for scenario 3, 854 lung cancers, respectively, using the new CONAES data.Epidemiologic data from six United States counties were correlated using a new statistical model (described in the text) in order to test the validity of the lung model and the linear relationship. Results do not support the high lung cancer correlations expected from the unsmear model and the linear relationship; therefore, it is concluded that low-dose mechanisms may be different from those developed from high-dose data. The best place to look for effects of low-dose radiation may be the less developed countries because of a reduction in the noise level caused by chemical pollutants.     

Fetal two-dimensional doppler echocardiography (colour flow mapping) and its place in prenatal diagnosis

One hundred and fifty fetuses between 16 and 38 weeks of gestation were studied by fetal echocardiography using colour-coded two-dimensional Doppler echocardiography. Two-dimensional, M-mode, and Doppler spectral analyses were also performed. In 14 fetuses, structural and/or functional abnormalities were detected. Abnormalities were correctly ruled out in all the other fetuses. The advantages of two-dimensional Doppler echocardiography are (1) rapid screening for flow abnormalities in the fetal heart, and thus shortening of the Doppler examination time; (2) rapid diagnosis of valvular regurgitation, valvular stenosis, and abnormal shunting of blood across the interatrial and interventricular septa; and (3) facilitation of the diagnosis of complex congenital heart defects which in certain cases is possible only by using two-dimensional Doppler echocardiography.     

辽宁省部分城市室内氡浓度水平

对辽宁省 7个市区的办公室和居室内空气氡浓度水平进行了调查研究 ,结果表明 ,办公室室内空气中氡的平衡当量浓度为 3 9.3 / Bq· m- 3。居室空气中氡的平衡当量浓度为 43 .2 / Bq·m- 3,居民由室内氡及其子体所致年有效剂量为2 .6m Sv     

Habitat mapping using machine learning-extended kernel-based reclassification of an Ikonos satellite image

The spatial resolution of satellite imagery suitable for earth resources studies has improved from 80 m (Landsat-MSS, launched in 1972) to 0.6 m (QuickBird, launched in 2001). The conventional pixel-based methods developed for medium resolution satellite images are not suitable for classification of very high spatial resolution images, because the spectral responses of particular habitat classes are much more variable. On the other hand, in the original Barnsley–Barr kernel-based reclassification algorithm not only the spectral information of a pixel but also the textural information in the vicinity of the pixel is used when the pixel labeling decision is made. The first step of the kernel reclassification algorithm is to perform an initial classification of the original image. In the second step, the adjacency-event matrices are computed for each pixel according to co-occurrence frequencies of the initial classes in the kernel window. The degree of matching between an adjacency-event matrix corresponding to specific pixel and the set of class-specific template matrices produced during training is the criterion for pixel re-labeling. We extend the original kernel-based reclassification algorithm with a decision tree-based reclassification, simultaneously taking into account the class-specific similarity images, which are a side-product of the original algorithm. The advantage of decision tree-extended approach over the original approach seems to be the ability of the former to consider more input information, thus increasing the Kappa classification accuracy for an Ikonos image of our study area from 0.56 to 0.60, using a nomenclature containing 10 habitat classes.     

Environmental control and spatial structure in ecological communities: an example using oribatid mites (Acari,Oribatei)

We have recently proposed to use partial canonical ordinations to partition the variation of species abundance data into four additive components: environmental at a local scale, the spatial component of the environmental influence, pure spatial, and an undetermined fraction. By means of an example, we show how to use the information contained in these fractions to provide better insight into the data. In particular, the interpretation is assisted by separately mapping the various canonical axes and relating them to possible generating processes. We derive a general framework for the causal interpretation of the various fractions of this partition, which includes the environmental and the biotic control models, as well as historical dynamics.Daniel Borcard is research associate in animal ecology at Universite de Neuchâtel, Switzerland. He is interested in soil ecology, and presently working on fundamental and applied projects dealing with peat bog ecology and protection, community succession dynamics, as well as effects of agriculture on mite and insect communities. In order to develop the statistical tools necessary for these projects, he also works in collaboration with Pierre Legendre on modeling the spatial structure of ecological communities. $Pierre Legendre is professor of quantitative biology at Universite de Montreal. He is a former Killam Research Fellow (1989–91), and a member of the Royal Society of Canada since 1992. He is the author of some 100 refereed articles, over 250 papers presented at scientific meetings and research seminars, dealing with numerical ecology, community ecology, environmental assessment and spatial analysis, and textbooks (in French and English) on numerical ecology. During the past 5 years, he served as the Secretary-Treasurer of the International Federation of Classification Societies. *We thank Dr V.M. Behan-Pelletier, of Agriculture Canada, for her help in the identification of the Oribatid mites, and Mrs Lucie Fortin and Dr P. Neumann, Universite de Montreal, for their identifications of the Sphagnum species. This research was carried out during tenure of a Postdoctoral Fellowship of the Swiss National Foundation for Scientific Research by D. Borcard, and of a Killam Research Fellowship of the Canada Council by P. Legendre. It was also supported by NSERC grant No. A7738 to P. Legendre. This is contribution No. 392 of the Groupe d'Écologie des Eaux douccs, Universite de Montreal. The authors wish to dedicate this paper with gratitude to Mr Alain Vaudor, computer analyst in Pierre Legendre's laboratory, who has largely contributed to the planning of this research. Mr Vaudor passed away on October 31, 1991, at age 46. The package for multivariate and spatial data analysis that he has produced during his computer scientist career is available to researchers from P. Legendre.     

Efficient statistical mapping of avian count data

We develop a spatial modeling framework for count data that is efficient to implement in high-dimensional prediction problems. We consider spectral parameterizations for the spatially varying mean of a Poisson model. The spectral parameterization of the spatial process is very computationally efficient, enabling effective estimation and prediction in large problems using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We apply this model to creating avian relative abundance maps from North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Variation in the ability of observers to count birds is modeled as spatially independent noise, resulting in over-dispersion relative to the Poisson assumption. This approach represents an improvement over existing approaches used for spatial modeling of BBS data which are either inefficient for continental scale modeling and prediction or fail to accommodate important distributional features of count data thus leading to inaccurate accounting of prediction uncertainty.     

Application of geostatistical methods to arsenic data from soil samples of the Cova dos Mouros mine (Vila Verde-Portugal)

A total of 286 soil samples were collected in the Cova dos Mouros area. All samples were dry sieved into the <200 mesh size fraction and analysed for Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb, Co, Ni, Bi and Mn by atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) and for As, Se, Sb and Te by atomic absorption spectrometry-hydrid generation (AAS-HG). Only the results of arsenic are discussed in this paper although the survey was extended to all analysed chemical elements. The purpose of this study was to make a risk probability mapping for arsenic that would allow better knowledge about the vulnerability of the soil to arsenic contamination. To achieve this purpose, the initial variable was transformed into an indicator variable using as thresholds the risk-based standards (intervention values) for soils, as proposed by [Swartjes 1999. Risk based assessment of soil and groundwater quality in the Netherlands: Standards and remediation. J. Geochem. Explor.73 1–10]. To account for spatial structure, sample variograms were computed for the main directions of the sampling grid and a spherical model was fitted to each sample variogram (arsenic variable and indicator variables). The parameters of the spherical model fitted to the arsenic variable were used to predict arsenic concentrations at unsampled locations. A risk probability mapping was also done to assess the vulnerability of the soil towards the mining works. The parameters of the spherical model fitted to each indicator variable were used to estimate probabilities of exceeding the corresponding threshold. The use of indicator kriging as an alternative to ordinary kriging for the soil data of Cova dos Mouros produced unbiased probability maps that allowed assessment of the quality of the soil.