利用成矿系列对延边金苍地区金矿的成矿预测

建立区域成矿系列的主要作用之一就是利用成矿系列来进行成矿预测。成矿系列具有明确找矿方向的作用 ,在具体找矿靶区预测时 ,结合区域物、化探和矿化、蚀变等找矿标志可以起到更为有效的预测效果。本文利用已经建立的区域成矿系列 ,结合区域地球化学异常和矿化、蚀变分带 ,对延边金苍地区进行了金矿成矿预测 ,提出了新的预测区。通过成矿预测工作 ,认为以成矿系列为理论基础进行成矿预测时 ,有必要建立相应的区域成矿系列预测体系和预测靶区评价体系 ,其中分析多种控矿因素和找矿标志的时空分布是其主要研究内容     

藏北羌塘地区新生代火山岩岩石特征及其成因探讨

羌塘地区新生代火山岩在岩性上以粗安岩、粗面岩占优势,富碱（尤其是K2O）和LREE,属高原钾玄岩－高钾钙碱性系列,其岩性和地球化学特征与青藏高原北部可可西里及中昆仑的新生代火山岩完全可以对比。根据K－Ar同位素定年数据可将该火山活动划分为四个喷发阶段,时代分属始新世—渐新世。羌塘地区火山岩的形成与新生代以来高原深部岩石圈的演化关系密切,可能与青藏高原隆升早期阶段的陆内俯冲作用有关。     

河流水质时间序列分析的自组织预测方法及应用

应用前苏联学者伊万年科基于生物控制论中的自组织原理提出的一种数据组合处理方法，有效地解决复杂非线性系统预测。以汾河某段的水污染时间序列监测数据为基础，建立了一个河流水质污染预测的自组织模型，其建模样本的拟合值和检验样本的预测值相对误差分别在３．１％和５．３％以内。结果表明，自组织模型能较好地描述水污染时间序列数据之间的非线性关系，适合复杂水环境污染系统的预测工作。     

用地下水资料探讨渭河盆地及周边地区地震形势

本文用陕、甘、宁、青的地下水前兆观测资料，运用异常系列方法的思路，研究了四省区中强地震的中期前兆指标，并进一步探讨了渭河盆地及周边的地震形势。     

Karst Hydrological Processes and Grey System Model1

Hao, Yonghong, Jiaojuan Zhao, Huamin Li, Bibo Cao, Zhongtang Li, and Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh, 2012. Karst Hydrological Processes and Grey System Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 656‐666. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00640.x Abstract: The karst hydrological processes are the response of karst groundwater system to precipitation. This study provided a concept model of karst hydrological processes. The hydraulic response time of spring discharge to precipitation includes the time that precipitation penetrates through the vadose zone, and the subsequent groundwater pressure wave propagates to a spring outlet. Due to heterogeneities in karst aquifers, the hydraulic response time is different in different areas. By using grey system theory, we proposed a karst hydrological model that offers a calculation of hydraulic response time, and a response model of spring discharge to precipitation. Then, we applied the models to the Liulin Springs Basin, China. In the south part of the Liulin Springs Basin, where large fields of carbonate rocks outcrop with intensive karstification, the hydraulic response time is one year. In the north, where the Ordovician karst aquifer is covered by Quaternary loess sediments, the response time is seven years. The grey system GM(1,3) response model of spring discharge to precipitation was applied in consideration of the hydraulic response time. The model calibration showed that the average error was 6.55%, and validation showed that the average error was 12.19%.     

Hydrologic Effects of NDVI Time Series in a Context of Climatic Variability in an Upstream Catchment of the Minjiang River1

Abstract: Increasing regional vegetation activity has been frequently found especially in middle and high latitude and alpine areas, but the effects of which on regional hydrology is still highly uncertain. The Upstream Catchment of Minjiang River is a large mountainous catchment covering 22,919 km² with a diverse vegetation distribution pattern, including alpine group (A), subalpine group (SA), and temperate and subtropical group (T/ST). The Seasonal Mann‐Kendall test, a nonparametric trend test method, detected consistent upward trends in all groups in monthly accumulated growing degree days (AGDD_M) time series from 1982 to 2003, but no significant trend in mean monthly precipitation (MMP) time series in any group. The alpine group had a significant (p = 0.024) upward trend in monthly Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from 1982 to 2003, in contrast, the SA and T/ST groups had decreasing (although not significant) trends. AGDD_M plays more important role than MMP in affecting NDVI change in alpine areas, indicating temperature was the main climatic driver. In contrast, water was the main driver for the T/ST group, as indicated by the significant correlation between NDVI and MMP and a weak correlation with AGDD_M. Correlation coefficients of NDVI and river flow varied with seasons, mostly negative, especially during the growing season (April to October). A significant (p = 0.025) correlation was found only in August, indicating that an increase in peak‐NDVI decreased high flow significantly. TI‐NDVI_c, which was developed in an attempt to track the vegetation change at the catchment scale, accounted for more than 40% of the evapotranspiration increase (r² = 0.43).     

Did you say reference conditions? Ecological and socio-economic perspectives on the European Water Framework Directive

Reference conditions are a key concept in the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD stipulates that the ecological status of a given water body shall be assessed by quantifying the deviation from a set of reference conditions that represent the stable state of an ecosystem in the absence of significant human disturbance. This concept is subject to criticism from several authors, particularly because underlying ecological concepts are weak and the distinction between natural variability and the effects of anthropogenic activities on ecosystem function will become increasingly artificial. In this paper, a sociologist and an aquatic ecologist examine the origin, successes and limits of the reference conditions concept and raise important questions about applying this concept in practice. We argue that this concept fitted specific needs from different institutions and stakeholders which promoted the WFD. Monitoring practices using this concept require some adaptations. Setting goals for restoration based on reference conditions is more problematic. A more adaptive management approach would be wiser.     

基于时间序列的深基坑支护结构变形预测

基坑工程由于受多种因素的影响．目前已成为岩土工程中的重点和难点。在基坑施工过程中,需要根据现场的实际工程地质条件及选择的支护型式、建筑物的安全等级．对支护结构的变形进行严格控制。时间序列分析主要是指采用参数模型对所观测到的有序的随机数据进行分析与处理的一种数据处理方法。通过现场量测的深基坑围护结构变形信息资料,对数据进行整理和分析．利用时间序列分析法对支护结构的变形作出预测,以保证基坑安全施工。     

长江大通站输沙量时间序列分析研究

长江来水来沙直接影响着河口三角洲的发育过程以至入海物质通量变化。大通站作为长江河口的第一个关键界面,有近50年左右的输沙量和流量连续观测资料（1953~2001年）。利用肯德尔、有序聚类和熵谱分析等方法,着重对输沙量时间序列进行了统计分析。大通站径流量在保持稳定的情势下,输沙量在过去49年中有明显的下降。输沙量变化主要呈跳跃式下降,同时表现出16年左右周期性阶梯下降规律,1968年和1984年分别为阶梯下降的跳跃点。尤其1984年后,年均输沙量比1984年前下降26.4％,且最大值未超过1984年前的平均值。输沙量减少与人类活动密切相关。20世纪80年代末的“长江上游水土保持重点防治工程”的实施,使长江上游的来沙减少,这是大通站输沙量减少的主要原因;其次是长江流域内水利工程的拦沙作用。