Uncertainties in QRA: Analysis of losses of containment from piping and implications on risk prevention and mitigation

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is commonly used in the chemical industry to support decision-making. Common practices are based on standard methods, such as fault tree, event tree, etc.; in this frame, risk is a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences (negative outcomes), but relevant uncertainties often are not properly taken into account in the derived results. This paper presents the application of an extended risk analysis of loss of containments for a case-study with the following aims: firstly, the uncertainties related to the results of the analysis, which derive from assumption in the application of the standard models, are qualitatively assessed; secondly the application allows evaluating the impact of the uncertainties on the trustworthiness of the results and, finally, commenting about their use in the risk prevention and mitigation.     

How can process safety and a risk management approach guide pandemic risk management?

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) brought the world to a halt in March 2020. Various prediction and risk management approaches are being explored worldwide for decision making. This work adopts an advanced mechanistic model and utilizes tools for process safety to propose a framework for risk management for the current pandemic. A parameter tweaking and an artificial neural network-based parameter learning model have been developed for effective forecasting of the dynamic risk. Monte Carlo simulation was used to capture the randomness of the model parameters. A comparative analysis of the proposed methodologies has been carried out by using the susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered, deceased (SEIQRD) model. A SEIQRD model was developed for four distinct locations: Italy, Germany, Ontario, and British Columbia. The learning-based approach resulted in better outcomes among the models tested in the present study. The layer of protection analysis is a useful framework to analyze the effect of different safety measures. This framework is used in this work to study the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk. The risk profiles suggest that a stage-wise releasing scenario is the most suitable approach with negligible resurgence. The case study provides valuable insights to practitioners in both the health sector and the process industries to implement advanced strategies for risk assessment and management. Both sectors can benefit from each other by using the mathematical models and the management tools used in each, and, more importantly, the lessons learned from crises.     

Optimization of facility location and reallocation in an industrial plant through a multi-annual framework accounting for economic and safety issues

The industrial layout traditionally has been addressed accounting for the facilities distribution and installation since the first day of operation of the plant; this is, without considering future expansions that involve additional facilities in the future operation years. This way, this paper proposes a mathematical programming formulation for the optimal facility sitting and reallocation in an industry accounting for future expansions and involving simultaneously economic and safety objectives. The proposed formulation is based on a multi-annual framework and this corresponds to a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming problem. The proposed optimization approach was applied to a case study for the facility sitting (office buildings and control rooms) in an ethylene oxide plant. The economic objective function involves the minimization of the total annual cost accounting for the value of the money through the time and the safety objective function involves the minimization for the accumulated risk over the operation time. Results show the applicability of the proposed approach.     

Alcohol is a predictor of mortality in motor vehicle collisions

IntroductionIt is well recognized that driving while intoxicated increases the probability of a motor-vehicle collision (MVC). The effect of alcohol on the chance of surviving the MVC is less clear. Method: Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) we conducted analyses for the outcome of mortality using alcohol and other variables as predictors. We also selected alcohol positive (AP) and alcohol negative (AN) persons from the same MVC and vehicle to control for confounding characteristics. Results: The odds ratio (OR) for mortality for alcohol positive drivers was 2.57, (p < 0.001 for all the following OR). Other harmful predictive factors were age OR 1.01 per year, vehicle age OR 1.05 per year, male sex OR 1.23, avoidance maneuver OR 1.09, speed related OR 2.89, rollover mechanism OR 2.75, and collision with a fixed object OR 6.70. Protective factors were proper restraint use – OR 0.19 and collision with another moving vehicle, OR 0.21. In the multivariate analysis the OR of mortality for AP vs AN was 1.46. Proper restraint use (OR 0.27) remained protective along with collision with another moving vehicle. When AP and AN persons from the same MVC and the same vehicle were compared, the adjusted OR’s for mortality were 1.46 and 2.08, respectively. Conclusions: Alcohol is an independent predictor of mortality in an MVC. Proper restraint use is the strongest protective factor. This finding allows a more complete understanding of the risks of driving while intoxicated, not only a higher probability of an MVC, but decreased survival once the MVC occurs. Practical Applications: Identification of alcohol as an independent predictor of mortality in an accident may improve risk assessment and influence drivers to avoid driving while intoxicated.     

Elk decision-making rules are simplified in the presence of wolves

The risk of predation drives many behavioral responses in prey. However, few studies have directly tested whether predation risk alters the way other variables influence prey behavior. Here we use information theory (Akaike’s Information Criterion, AICc) in a novel way to test the hypothesis that the decision-making rules governing elk behavior are simplified by the presence of wolves. With elk habitat use as the dependent variable, we test whether the number of independent variables (i.e., the size of the models) that best predict this behavior differ when wolves are present vs absent. Thus, we use AICc scores simply to determine the number of variables to which elk respond when making decisions. We measured habitat use using 2,288 locations from GPS collars on 14 elk, over two winters (14 elk winters), in the Gallatin Canyon portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that the use of three major habitat components (grass, conifer, sage) was sensitive to many variables on days that wolves were locally absent, with the best models (ΔAICc≤2) averaging 7.4 parameters. In contrast, habitat use was sensitive to few variables on days when wolves were present: the best models averaged only 2.5 parameters. Because fewer variables affect elk behavior in the presence of wolves, we conclude that elk use simpler decision-making rules in the presence of wolves. This simplification of decision-making rules implies that predation risk imposes selection pressures that do not allow prey to respond to other pressures in ways that they otherwise would. If the affected processes are important, then this indirect effect of predation is likely to be important.     

Risk taking during parental care: a test of three hypotheses applied to the pied flycatcher

According to life-history theory, there will often be a conflict between investment in current versus future reproduction. If a predator appears during breeding, parents must make a compromise between ensuring the growth and survival of offspring (nest defence, feeding and brooding of young), and reducing the risk of predation to ensure their own survival. We model three hypotheses for the outcome of this conflict which are particularly relevant for altricial birds. They are not mutually exclusive, but focus on different costs and benefits. (1) Parental investment is determined by the parents’ own risk of predation. This hypothesis predicts that a lone parent should take smaller risks than a parent that has a mate. (2) Parental investment is related to the reproductive value of the offspring: Parents are predicted to take greater risks for larger broods, larger-sized or older offspring. (3) Finally, we present the new hypothesis that parental investment is related to the harm that offspring would suffer during a period of no parental care (incubation, brooding, feeding). This hypothesis predicts that parents should take greater risks for younger offspring, or for offspring in poorer condition, because the marginal benefit of parental care is largest in such cases. Hence, one may also expect that lone parents should take greater risks than two parents because their offspring are more in need of care. We tested these hypotheses on the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) by presenting a stuffed predator of the parents (a sparrowhawk, Accipiter nisus) close to the nest when parents were feeding the young. Risk taking was measured as the time that elapsed until the first visit to the nest. Most support was found for the ‘‘harm to offspring’’ hypothesis. Previous studies have usually measured the intensity of nest defence against typical nest predators, and have found evidence for the ‘‘reproductive value of offspring’’ hypothesis. However, our model predicts that the importance of the reproductive value of the offspring should decrease relative to the harm that offspring would suffer if they were not cared for when the predator type changes from a nest predator to a predator of adults, and when conditions for breeding turn from good to bad. Received: 13 April 1995/Accepted after revision: 11 March 1996     

Designatable Units for Status Assessment of Endangered Species

Abstract:  Species status assessment and the conservation of biological diversity may require defining units below the species level to portray probabilities of extinction accurately and to help set priorities for conservation efforts. What those units should be has been debated in the scientific literature largely in terms of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), but this discourse has had little impact on government policy with regard to status assessment. As with species concepts, the variously proposed ESU concepts have not been resolvable into a single approach. The need for a practicable procedure to identify infraspecific entities for status assignment is the motivation behind employing designatable units (DUs). In aid of a policy to prevent elements of biodiversity from becoming extinct or extirpated, DUs are determined during the process of resolving a species' conservation status according to broadly applicable guidelines. The procedure asks whether putative DUs are distinguishable based on a reliably established taxonomy or a well-corroborated phylogeny, compelling evidence of genetic distinction, range disjunction, and/or biogeographic distinction as long as extinction probabilities also differ. The language of the DU approach avoids wording that implies value judgments concerning evolutionary importance or significance. Because species conservation status assessment is not science but, rather, the use of science to further policy, DUs contribute to a precautionary approach to listing whereby status may be assessed even though knowledge of systematic relationships below the species level may be lacking or unresolved. The pragmatic approach of using DUs has been adopted by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada for status assessment of species under the Canadian Species at Risk Act.     

Division of foraging labor in ants can mediate demands for food and safety

Solitary foragers can balance demands for food and safety by varying their relative use of foraging patches and their level of vigilance. Here, we investigate whether colonies of the ant, Formica perpilosa, can balance these demands by dividing labor among workers. We show that foragers collecting nectar in vegetation near their nest are smaller than are those collecting nectar at sites away from the nest. We then use performance tests to show that smaller workers are more likely to succumb to attack from conspecifics but feed on nectar more efficiently than larger workers, suggesting a size-related trade-off between risk susceptibility and harvesting ability. Because foragers that travel away from the nest are probably more likely to encounter ants from neighboring colonies, this trade-off could explain the benefits of dividing foraging labor among workers. In a laboratory experiment, we show that contact with aggressive workers results in an increase in the mean size of recruits to a foraging site: this increase was not the result of more large recruits, but rather because fewer smaller ants traveled to the site. These results suggest that workers particularly susceptible to risk avoid dangerous sites, and suggest that variation in worker size can allow colonies to exploit profitably both hazardous and resource-poor patches.Communicated by L. Sundström     

Differences in acoustic directionality among vocalizations of the male red-winged blackbird (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Agelaius pheoniceus</Emphasis>) are related to function in communication

Studies of animal acoustic communication have found that the frequency and temporal structure of acoustic signals can be shaped by selection for efficient communication. The directionality of acoustic radiation may also be adapted for communication, but we know relatively little about how directionality varies with signal function, sender morphology, and the environment in which the sound is transmitted. We tested the hypothesis that the directionality of a vocalization is adapted to its function in communication. This hypothesis predicts that vocalizations that are directed to multiple conspecifics (e.g., advertisements and alarms) will be relatively omnidirectional because this will maximize the number of neighbors and mates that receive the signal, and that vocalizations directed to particular individuals will be relatively directional because this will maximize detection of the signal by the targeted receiver and minimize eavesdropping. To test these predictions, we measured the directionality and amplitude of red-winged blackbird (Agelaius pheoniceus) vocalizations in the field by recording vocalizations simultaneously on eight calibrated microphones encircling the bird. We found significant variation in directionality among vocalizations. Supporting our predictions, we found that the most omnidirectional vocalizations were those used to alert conspecifics to danger, and the most directional vocalizations are those used during courtship and solicitation of copulation, when the costs of eavesdropping are likely to be high. These results suggest that the directionality of red-winged blackbird vocalizations is shaped by selection for effective communication. This study is the first to provide statistical support for the hypothesis that directionality is related to the function of a signal in communication.     

Women's opinions on the offer and use of maternal serum screening

We studied the opinions and experiences concerning maternal serum screening of two groups of women: (A) women who were not eligible for prenatal diagnosis; and (B) women for whom prenatal diagnosis was available because of advanced maternal age, and who either underwent chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis. Many of the women were in favour of the availability of serum screening and would apply for this test in a future pregnancy. This applied also to many respondents who had previously undergone prenatal diagnosis. Most of these women, however, did not intend to decline diagnostic amniocentesis if the screening results did not indicate an increased risk. The majority of the group of respondents of 36 years and over did not consider it acceptable if age indication was dropped altogether. A system based on serum screening will have other implications than a policy based on age indication, since specific individual risk assessment is perceived as being of more significance than a risk statistically derived from age alone. Serum screening is often seen as a means of reassurance and many women are not aware of the possible drawbacks. As technology becomes increasingly complicated, counselling has to be adjusted correspondingly. Further research is needed to establish whether and how distress can be minimized and well-considered individual choice can be achieved.