PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD ESTIMATION-EASTERN UNITED STATES1

In 1982, the National Weather Service (NWS) published criteria for developing the spatial and temporal precipitation distribution characteristics of Probable Maximum Storms. The criteria, which are intended for use in the United States east of the 105th meridian, involve four variables: (1) location of the storm center, (2) storm-area size, (3) storm orientation, and (4) temporal arrangement of precipitation amounts. A computer program has been developed which applies the NWS criteria to produce hyetographs of spatially-averaged precipitation for a basin, or for each subbasin if the basin is subdividided. The basis and operational characteristics of the program are described, and an application is illustrated in which the program is used in conjunction with a precipitation-runoff simulation program (HEC-1) to compute a Probable Maximum Flood.     

碳酸盐碳测定在沙尘暴来源地识别中的应用

根据中国大气颗粒物特点 ,在国内沙尘暴研究中首次尝试利用碳酸盐碳进行沙尘暴来源地识别。测定了一系列黄沙、大气颗粒物和沙尘暴源区土壤样品。初步了解了上述样品中碳酸盐碳含量情况 ,结合国外研究结果对影响北京的沙尘暴源区进行推测并与其他方法作了比较     

济南市沙尘暴污染影响和物理化学特性分析

沙尘暴的袭击严重污染了城市环境质量，对济南市沙尘暴进行采样及化学元素成分分析。沙尘暴期间城市空气中TSP浓度高达6155ug／m^3，是同期的23．7倍。沙尘暴颗粒物元素以地壳元素为主，并且对各种元素有不同程度的富集。     

土壤水分对沙尘暴的阈值反应--以内蒙古中西部地区为例

以2001年4月至2003年6月内蒙古中西部地区逐时观测的土壤体积含水百分率资料为基础,论述了土壤体积含水百分率的时间变化规律及其对沙尘暴的阈值反应.得到的主要结论是:(1)土壤体积含水百分率有着单峰型日波动反应,最高和最低值分别出现在午后4时和午前9时.(2)土壤体积含水百分率的月际变化基本遵循以1a为周期作简单振动的变化规律,最低值出现在3～4月.土壤体积含水百分率全年波动介于18.5%～37.3%之间,年平均值为26.5%.(3)沙尘暴的发生在土壤体积含水百分率含量一定范围内并不随土壤含水量的降低而发生明显变化,但当土壤体积含水百分率低于19.5%时,则随着土壤体积含水百分率的降低而明显增加,表现为土壤体积含水百分率有明显的阈值反应.(4)引进沙尘暴时度的概念研究了沙尘暴发生的持续时间,由沙尘暴时度与土壤体积含水百分率的指数关系发现,在时度大于200min和小于120min的两类沙尘暴中,土壤体积含水百分率每降低1%,沙尘暴时度将分别增加19.94min和10.14min.     

单一重现期非线性暴雨强度模型参数的确定--新型混合加速遗传算法的构建与应用

对浮点编码遗传算法进行了改进,并嵌入Powell方向加速局部搜索算法与加速循环操作,从而构建了新型混合加速遗传算法.确定单一重现期的非线性暴雨强度模型参数的应用实例表明,该方法兼顾了改进浮点编码遗传算法和Powell算法的优点,是一种既可以较大概率、快速地搜索全局近似最优解,又能进行局部细微搜索的出色的非线性优化方法.该法在其它工程问题的非线性模型参数的确定中也具有广阔的应用前景.     

Anthropogenic Calcium Particles Observed in Beijing and Qingdao, China

Analysis of individual particles collected at Beijing in northern China revealed that particles abundant in calcium (Ca) always constituted a large fraction of mineral particles in the urban atmosphere. The particles were characterized by cubic morphologies. The major mineral element in the particles was Ca and few or no other mineral elements were detected. A large number of the particles were in the range of diameter <1 μm, where common natural mineral particles were rarely detected. The contribution of the Ca particles to the volume of total mineral particles greatly exceeded that of other mineral particles during non-dust-storm periods and was comparable to that during dust-storm periods. Reagent film tests showed that particulate sulfate and nitrate formation on the Ca particles was similar to that on common mineral particles. These results indicate that a large portion of Ca in the atmospheric particulate matter in Beijing was from anthropogenic sources rather than from natural sources, and the anthropogenic Ca particles acted as a significant medium for the formation of sulfate and nitrate. Similar particles were also detected at Qingdao, a coastal city in northern China. Data of a dust storm event showed that Ca-abundant particles from East China arrived there and moved out of the continent, similarly to Asian dust storm particles, suggesting possible contributions of anthropogenic Ca even in Asian dust storm samples in the downstream areas. Therefore, Ca may not be a good indicator of Asian dust from natural sources. However, the Ca particles, due to their unique shapes and elemental compositions, may provide an indicator for the atmospheric dispersion of anthropogenic particulate matters in East Asia.     

Climatic and Environmental Changes in the Source Areas of Dust Storms in Xinjiang, China, during the Last 50 Years

The desert environmental changes in the source areas of dust storms occurring in Xinjiang are discussed based on the climate changes and the impacts of human activities in Xinjiang during the past 50 years. The results show that the climate in Xinjiang is changing from a warm-dry type to a warm-wet one. The warm-wet climate has been obvious since the mid-1970's, and especially the sensitivity of the regional climate change in this arid area is obviously revealed by many factors, such as the characteristics of the local climate change in south Xinjiang and north Xinjiang, the difference of climate change in the alpine zones and the basins, and the change of areas of the waters bodies. Furthermore, these factors also reveal the difference in the regional climate change between Xinjiang and central and eastern areas of China. The occurrence and development of dust storms are directly affected by the precipitation, air humidity, status of underlying surface, etc. in the arid areas. The frequency and intensity of dust storms are closely related to the natural conditions, changes of climate and desert environment, as well as the dynamic conditions (i.e., weather systems) in the source areas of dust storms. Therefore, global warming is one of the main causes resulting in the degradation of the ecological environment and the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, especially the disasters of sand drift and dust storms in the arid areas since the late-1980's, which reveals that the inland arid areas are sensitive regions to climate changes.     

Duststorms and Mesoscale Cloud Systems over The East Asian Deserts in Spring

Meteorological characteristics and morphology of duststorms and other dust weather phenomena in the arid regions of East Asia were described in order to investigate a possible role of mesoscale cloud disturbances that develop in synoptic-scale mid-latitude cyclones in intensifying dust weather. This study is a statistical examination of conventional surface observational data as well as satellite data obtained during April 2000–2003. In the deserts of Mongolia and northern China (e.g., the Gobi Desert) duststorms and other weaker dust weather (i.e., dust whirls, blowing dust) frequently occur under a strong influence of synoptic-scale cyclones; on the other hand in the Taklamakan Desert (northwestern China), dust weather phenomena occur in a less organized fashion and may be driven mainly by local meteorological and geographical effects. A significant signal was identified, revealing of the intensification of dust weather by the presence of convective cloud disturbances. Meteorological changes such as pressure rise and temperature drop, typically found during the passage of cold fronts, were frequently observed in the cases of duststorms occurring in the analysis region. However, no definite tendency was found for moisture change and wind speed in relation to cloud activity, probably because rainfall amount is generally too low to moisten the boundary-layer air.     

DUAL URBAN AND RURAL HYDROGRAPH SIGNALS IN THREE SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Many studies can be found in the literature pertaining to the effects of urbanization on surface runoff in small watersheds and the hydrologic response of undeveloped watersheds. However, an extensive literature review yielded few published studies that illustrate differing hydrologic responses from multiple source areas within a watershed. The concepts discussed here are not new, but the methods used provide a unique, basic procedure for investigating stormwater hydrology in topographically diverse basins. Six storm hydrographs from three small central Pennsylvania watersheds were analyzed for this paper; five are presented. Two important conclusions are deduced from this investigation. First, in all cases we found two distinct peaks in stream discharge, each representing different contributing areas to direct discharge with greatly differing curve numbers and lags representative of urban and rural source regions. Second, the direct discharge represents only a small fraction of the total drainage area with the urban peak becoming increasingly important with respect to the rural peak with the amount of urbanization and as the magnitude of the rain event decreases.