东南亚地区中国海外耕地投资项目的空间分布及影响因素分析

为探究中国在东南亚地区的海外耕地投资活动规律,利用文献资料法、空间分析法和灰色关联分析法,从空间分布和影响因素两方面进行分析。结果表明：（1）中国海外耕地投资项目多位于中南半岛,且有沿边分布特点;（2）中国在东南亚海外耕地投资意向项目、合同项目的空间分布相似性较高,而生产项目与前两者存在差异;（3）中国海外耕地投资受地缘经济、地缘文化、资源基础和地缘政治的影响且受影响程度依次减弱,其中年均进出口总值、年均中国对外直接投资存量等指标对中国企业的投资选择具有显著影响。东南亚地区作为当前中国海外耕地投资的重要区域,强化同东南亚国家间的经济、文化交流,对中国企业顺利开展海外耕地投资活动具有重要促进作用。     

Effects of experimental protocol on global vegetation model accuracy: A comparison of simulated and observed vegetation patterns for Asia

Prognostic vegetation models have been widely used to study the interactions between environmental change and biological systems. This study examines the sensitivity of vegetation model simulations to: (i) the selection of input climatologies representing different time periods and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, (ii) the choice of observed vegetation data for evaluating the model results, and (iii) the methods used to compare simulated and observed vegetation. We use vegetation simulated for Asia by the equilibrium vegetation model BIOME4 as a typical example of vegetation model output. BIOME4 was run using 19 different climatologies and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The Kappa statistic, Fuzzy Kappa statistic and a newly developed map-comparison method, the Nomad index, were used to quantify the agreement between the biomes simulated under each scenario and the observed vegetation from three different global land- and tree-cover data sets: the global Potential Natural Vegetation data set (PNV), the Global Land Cover Characteristics data set (GLCC), and the Global Land Cover Facility data set (GLCF). The results indicate that the 30-year mean climatology (and its associated atmospheric CO₂ concentration) for the time period immediately preceding the collection date of the observed vegetation data produce the most accurate vegetation simulations when compared with all three observed vegetation data sets. The study also indicates that the BIOME4-simulated vegetation for Asia more closely matches the PNV data than the other two observed vegetation data sets. Given the same observed data, the accuracy assessments of the BIOME4 simulations made using the Kappa, Fuzzy Kappa and Nomad index map-comparison methods agree well when the compared vegetation types consist of a large number of spatially continuous grid cells. The results of this analysis can assist model users in designing experimental protocols for simulating vegetation.     

Carbonaceous species in fine particles at the background sites in Korea between 1994 and 1999

Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) in fine particles (PM_2.5) at two background sites, Kosan and Kangwha in Korea were measured during intensive field studies between 1994 and 1999. Fine particles were collected on pre-fired quartz filters in a low-volume sampler and analyzed using the selective thermal oxidation method with MnO₂ catalyst. The OC and EC concentrations at Kosan located at western tip of Cheju Island in southern Korea are lower than those at Kangwha located at western coastal area in mid-Korean peninsula. Still, the OC concentrations at Kosan are generally higher than those at other background areas in Japan and USA. The EC concentrations at Kosan are lower than or comparable to those at other background areas. The total carbon (TC, sum of OC and EC) to EC ratio values at both sites were higher than those at other background areas in Japan and USA. At Kosan, the OC and EC concentrations when air parcels were from southern China were higher than those when air parcels were coming from northern China. However, at Kangwha, the differences were statistically not clear since most air parcels were from northern China. Except when air parcels were from the North Pacific during summer, the OC and EC concentrations are well correlated indicating that both OC and EC share the same emission/transport characteristics. From the gaseous hydrocarbon data and the OC and EC relationship, it was found that during summer local biogenic emissions of OC might be significant at Kosan.     

Trans-boundary air pollution over remote islands in Japan: observed data and estimates from a numerical model

Observations of air pollutants were conducted in remote Japanese islands (Oki Island and Okinawa Island) in early spring to clarify the extent of trans-boundary air pollution from the Asian continent. A three-dimensional Eulerian model calculation, which included parameters on emission, transport and transformation of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides and ammonia, was performed to compile sulfate isosurface concentrations over the observational sites. Concentrations of non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO₄²⁻) of greater than 10 μg m⁻³ were observed at Oki after the northeastward passage of low-pressure systems in the Sea of Japan. At these times, the weather showed a typical winter pattern and air pollutants over China were transported southeastward to Japan with the northwesterly wind. The model calculation reproduced the observed variations of nss-SO₄²⁻ concentration well, except for one case in which the model calculation could not reproduce the extremely low nss-SO₄²⁻ concentration observed on 8 March. In Hedo (Okinawa Island), we observed long-lasting (3 days) medium concentrations of nss-SO₄²⁻ (approximately 5 μg m⁻³). Although the model reproduced these observed medium concentrations well, in general the observed results were reproduced better for Oki than for Hedo. Under the synoptic weather conditions of early spring, high concentrations of nss-sulfate were sometimes transported to these remote Japanese islands from areas of continental Asia with a strong outflow of air pollutants.     

Dust Storms are an Indication of an Unhealthy Environment in East Asia

Dust storms frequently occur in Mongolia and in northern China. Each year there are 30 to 120 dusty days in source regions of Mongolia and 14–20 dusty days on the Korean Peninsula. Intense sand storms and associated dust falls produce environmental impacts in East Asia. This paper discusses the environmental degradation in Mongolia and the social, economic and atmospheric impacts of dust storms in the sink area. The impact of dust storms on environmental compartments as well as their direct and indirect consequences to basic resources like water and energy demand and supply is explained. Governments are encouraged to take appropriate action in specified regions. For monitoring dust storms there is a need for international cooperation to combat growing environmental and human security concerns.     

Extinction rate of discovered and undiscovered plants in Singapore

Extinction is a key issue in the assessment of global biodiversity. However, many extinction rate measures do not account for species that went extinct before they could be discovered. The highly developed island city–state of Singapore has one of the best-documented tropical floras in the world. This allowed us to estimate the total rate of floristic extinctions in Singapore since 1822 after accounting for sampling effort and crypto extinctions by collating herbaria records. Our database comprised 34,224 specimens from 2076 native species, of which 464 species (22%) were considered nationally extinct. We assumed that undiscovered species had the same annual per-species extinction rates as discovered species and that no undiscovered species remained extant. With classical and Bayesian algorithms, we estimated that 304 (95% confidence interval, 213–414) and 412 (95% credible interval, 313–534) additional species went extinct before they could be discovered, respectively; corresponding total extinction rate estimates were 32% and 35% (range 30–38%). We detected violations of our 2 assumptions that could cause our extinction estimates, particularly the absolute numbers, to be biased downward. Thus, our estimates should be treated as lower bounds. Our results illustrate the possible magnitudes of plant extirpations that can be expected in the tropics as development continues.     

中国东、南部大陆、海域与邻区(国)古构造演化关系

本文论证了中国海域基底与邻区古构造演化关系,中朝地台与京畿地块以北对应。中下扬子台拗东延为朝南古拗陷,东南地槽系连接本州地槽系,华夏地块经东海接日本“南方大陆”,华夏和印支地块隶属于南海—东海地台的边缘地块。     

Nutrient budgets: sustainability assessment of rainfed lowland rice-based systems in northeast Thailand

In northeast Thailand, the sustainability of rainfed lowland rice-based systems, the dominant land-use system (LUS) in the region, is a concern for the welfare of the population in this relatively poor region. Poor soil fertility and low inputs are seen as major causes of this lack of sustainability. In this context, the assessment of nutrient budgets is seen as a powerful tool for the assessment of critical components of the sustainability of this particular LUS. Biophysical, socioeconomic, and management-related data on the farming systems were collected for 30 farms in Ubon Ratchathani Province, northeast Thailand. A relational database system (RDBS) was developed to manage and analyze the data. The RDBS includes a calculation procedure for the semi-automatic generation of partial nutrient balances. Partial nutrient balances are good indicators for some critical components of sustainability, and important for decision support on soil fertility management when considered with the additional factors that are required for a full nutrient balance.For the rice-based systems of 30 farms, mean partial balances were 12 kg N ha⁻¹, 8 kg P ha⁻¹, and 7 kg K ha⁻¹ per year. Large variations in partial N, P, and K balances exist among different farms and, even more so, for different land utilization types (LUTs). The LUTs are distinct cropping system–management combinations that occur down to the subfield level. Many of the partial balances assessed were negative.Farmers manage nutrients for similar parcels of land in very different ways. This results in the observed large variation in partial nutrient balances, even for the same type of land use within the same farm. These results confirm the high inter-farm and intra-farm variability for partial balances of N, P, and K of several preliminary studies. Farmer interviews and field surveys revealed that different socioeconomic factors appear to be related with inter- and intra-farm variability in nutrient budgets. In addition, the socioeconomic component of the case study revealed that diversification of income sources, particularly off-farm employment, had a larger impact on household income than rice production. Furthermore, while many less well-off households had a greater reliance on rice production, many farms with high off-farm and non-rice farm income had a higher total production of rice.The nutrient balance approach, starting with partial nutrient balances, may become an important component of a dynamic and site-specific decision support tool (DST) for nutrient management, and a relational database of the form used in this study may become a key element.     

Human Settlements on the Northern Shores of Lake Aral and Water Level Changes

The shore of Lake Aral in Kazakhstan is a perfect area for studying the human adaptation strategy to past climate changes. New archaeological material, gathered along the northern shores during the expedition of the INTAS project CLIMAN, is briefly presented. Changes in settlement activity during the Atlantic and Subboreal are related to lake level changes of the Aral Sea. A previ-ously proposed lake level maximum needs to be revised. In particular the lake level stand at 72/73 m, with an assumed age of 5000 BP is definitely refused. Based on the presented data the maximum lake level most probably never reached beyond 57/58 mean average sea level (masl). Furthermore the regression during the 15^th–16^th centuries has been underestimated. It may have been lower than the present day level. Thus the present desiccation of the Aral Sea is historically not unique, as a similar regression, probably induced by man as well, has occurred at least once during history. A readjustment of the water level is, therefore, possible at any time.     

重点生态功能区环境污染源排放特征与空间管控模式——以藏东南为例

重点生态功能区以保持并提高生态产品供给能力为主体功能定位，区内自然环境敏感性和脆弱性突出，研究其人类活动过程中的环境污染源排放特征与空间管控模式，对科学协调保护与利用、切实加强重点生态功能区环境保护和治理水平具有重要意义.以青藏高原重要生态安全屏障区藏东南为例，基于环境污染源的固体废弃物、水体污染物和大气污染物排放强度的分类估算与空间特征解析，探讨面向污染源排放强度和多尺度管控精度的分级空间管控方案.研究结果表明：藏东南环境污染源的排放强度整体较低，雅鲁藏布江和雅尼河谷地因人类生产生活活动密度较大，其污染物排放量显著高于其他区域；在重点生态功能区应建立由7个二级类和21个三级类构成的环境污染源空间管控体系，重点管控以城镇居住区和工矿业生产空间为主的"点状"胁迫、以交通运输场所和人文游憩空间为主的"线状"胁迫、以农业种植区和畜禽养殖区为主的"面状"胁迫；针对藏东南各类环境污染源的空间耦合及交互特征，提出城乡生活集聚型、农牧业生产集聚型和休闲旅游集聚型3种典型区，依次制定"分级处理+资源利用"、"源头减排+就地消纳"、"实时动态监控+绿色设施营造+游憩利用规范"的差异化空间管控模式.