丹阳市宅基地使用权流转意愿的影响因素及相互作用

通过丹阳市4个村320户农户实地问卷调查,分析了丹阳市宅基地使用权流转意愿的影响因素,由Logistic回归分析模型,给出了影响因素的驱动力、贡献率的数学表达。结果表明：文化程度、宅基地个数、家庭总收入等影响因素对流转意愿呈正相关;户主年龄、家庭人口数量等影响因素对流转意愿呈负相关。同一农户的影响因素在不同阶段对流转意愿度的贡献率不同,家庭收入和户主年龄是影响宅基地流转的主要因素,他们对宅基地流转分别起着推力和阻力作用,在相互作用过程中,两者之间彼此消长。实地抽样结果分析表明,丹阳农村户主文化程度若为初中且年龄在35岁时,家庭收入能达到34 000元的话,宅基地使用权流转意愿度超过50%。以后每年家庭收入能有一定增速的话,农户流转意愿度将持续保持在50%以上。     

不同场地条件下水下隧道周围土体位移变化的数值分析

以拟建的哈尔滨松花江隧道为背景,考虑土体—衬砌的材料非线性特性和相互作用,按平面应变假定,建立在不同场地条件下的若干接近实际的有限元计算模型,应用有限元计算软件ANSYS进行数值分析,得出不同场地条件下隧道周围土体位移的分布规律,遴选出了影响水下隧道周围土体变形的部分关键因素,为合理确定隧道覆土层安全厚度提供了一定的理论依据。     

Evaluation on the toxicity of ionic liquid mixture with antagonism and synergism to Vibrio qinghaiensis sp.-Q67

Ionic liquids (ILs) are a fascinating group of new chemicals with the potential to replace the classical volatile organic solvents, stimulating many applications in chemical industry. In case ILs are released to the environment, possible combined toxicity should be taken into account and it is, however, often neglected up to now. In this paper, therefore, the concentration-response curves (CRCs) of four groups of IL mixtures with various mixture ratios to Vibrio qinghaiensis sp.-Q67 were determined using the microplate toxicity analysis and were compared to the CRCs predicted by an additive reference model, the concentration addition (CA) or independent action (IA), to identify the toxicity interaction. It is showed that most of the IL mixture rays displayed the classical addition while the remaining rays exhibited antagonism or synergism. Moreover, it is found that the pEC₅₀ values of the mixture rays exhibiting antagonism or synergism are well correlated with the mixture ratio of a certain IL therein.     

不同密度螺-草结构对养殖尾水净化效果的比较研究

为减少水产养殖污染物排放,以苦草为对照组,构建环棱螺螺 草生态系统净化池塘养殖尾水,比较不同密度螺 草结构对养殖尾水的净化效果,同时探讨螺草互作对水质的影响。结果表明不同密度螺 草组合对养殖尾水均有较好的净化效果,以中密度组（螺密度50 ind/m3）的去除效果最优,25 d对Chl a、CODMn、TN、TP、NH4+ N、NO3- N和浊度的去除率分别达到98%、39.7%、44.2%、86.9%、58.2%、82.3%和91%,其中以17~25 d的营养物质去除率最高,水质由原来的Ⅳ类、Ⅴ类水提升为Ⅲ类水;环棱螺 苦草互作对水体的净化效果与苦草对照组差异不显著,表明其互利关系不明显;环棱螺 苦草组合对CODMn和TN的去除效果不是很理想,可能是由于实验中以黄土为底泥,其中的异养微生物较少引起的     

Toxic masking and synergistic modulation of the estrogenic activity of chemical mixtures in a yeast estrogen screen (YES)

Background, aim and scope

Estrogenic and non-estrogenic chemicals typically co-occur in the environment. Interference by non-estrogenic chemicals may confound the assessment of the actual estrogenic activity of complex environmental samples. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether, in which way and how seriously the estrogenic activity of single estrogens and the observed and predicted joint action of estrogenic mixtures is influenced by toxic masking and synergistic modulation caused by non-estrogenic chemical confounders.

Materials and methods

The yeast estrogen screen (YES) was adapted so that toxicity and estrogenicity could be quantified simultaneously in one experimental run. Mercury, two organic solvents (dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and 2,4-dinitroaniline), a surfactant (LAS-12) and the antibiotic cycloheximide were selected as toxic but non-estrogenic test chemicals. The confounding impact of selected concentrations of these toxicants on the estrogenic activity of the hormone 17ß-estradiol was determined by co-incubation experiments. In a second step, the impact of toxic masking and synergistic modulation on the predictability of the joint action of 17ß-estradiol, estrone and estriol mixtures by concentration addition was analysed.

Results

Each of the non-estrogenic chemicals reduced the apparent estrogenicity of both single estrogens and their mixtures if applied at high, toxic concentrations. Besides this common pattern, a highly substance- and concentration-dependent impact of the non-estrogenic toxicants was observable. The activity of 17ß-estradiol was still reduced in the presence of only low or non-toxic concentrations of 2,4-dinitroaniline and cycloheximide, which was not the case for mercury and DMSO. A clear synergistic modulation, i.e. an enhanced estrogenic activity, was induced by the presence of slightly toxic concentrations of LAS-12. The joint estrogenic activity of the mixture of estrogens was affected by toxic masking and synergistic modulation in direct proportion to the single estrogens, which allowed for an adequate adaptation of concentration addition and thus unaffected predictability of the joint estrogenicity in the presence of non-estrogenic confounders.

Discussion

The modified YES proved to be a reliable system for the simultaneous quantification of yeast toxicity and estrogen receptor activation. Experimental results substantiate the available evidence for toxic masking as a relevant phenomenon in estrogenicity assessment of complex environmental samples. Synergistic modulation of estrogenic activity by non-estrogenic confounders might be of lower importance. The concept of concentration addition is discussed as a valuable tool for estrogenicity assessment of complex mixtures, with deviations of the measured joint estrogenicity from predictions indicating the need for refined analyses.

Conclusions

Two major challenges are to be considered simultaneously for a reliable analysis of the estrogenic activity of complex mixtures: the identification of known and suspected estrogenic compounds in the sample as well as the substance- and effect-level-dependent confounding impact of non-estrogenic toxicants.

Recommendations and perspectives

The application of screening assays such as the YES to complex mixtures should be accompanied by measures that safeguard against false negative results which may be caused by non-estrogenic but toxic confounders. Simultaneous assessments of estrogenicity and toxicity are generally advisable.     

The role of remote sensing in hydrological modelling of the Okavango Delta, Botswana

A coupled surface water-groundwater model of the Okavango Delta has been built based on the United States Geological Survey software MODFLOW 2000 including the SFR2 package for stream-flow routing. It will provide a new tool for evaluating water management and climate change scenarios. The delta's size and limited accessibility make direct, on the ground data acquisition difficult. Remote sensing methods are the most promising source of acquiring spatially distributed data for both model input parameters and calibration. Topography, aquifer thickness, channel positions, evapotranspiration and precipitation data are all based on remote sensing. Simulated flooding patterns are compared to patterns derived from visible to thermal NOAA-AVHRR data and microwave radar ENVISAT-ASAR data.     

Perceived Effects of Setting Attributes on Visitor Experiences in Wilderness: Variation with Situational Context and Visitor Characteristics

Understanding how setting attributes influence the nature of the visitor experience is crucial to effective recreation management. Highly influential attributes are useful indicators to monitor within a planning framework, such as Limits of Acceptable Change. This study sought to identify the setting attributes perceived to have the most profound effect on the ability to have “a real wilderness experience” and to assess the degree to which attribute importance varied with situational context and visitor characteristics. To this end, exiting hikers were surveyed at moderate and very high use trailheads in Alpine Lakes Wilderness, WA (USA), and Three Sisters Wilderness, OR (USA). They were asked about the degree to which encountering varying levels of different setting attributes would add to or detract from their experience. Attributes with the largest range of effect on experience, based on evaluations of different levels, were considered most important. The most influential attributes were litter and several types of campsite interaction—people walking through camp and number of other groups camping close by. The perceived importance of setting attributes did not vary much between wilderness locations with substantially different use levels, suggesting that conclusions are robust and generalizable across wilderness areas. There also was little difference in the perceptions of day and overnight visitors. In contrast, we found substantial variation in the perceived importance of setting attributes with variation in wilderness experience, knowledge, attachment, and motivation. Our results validate the emphasis of many wilderness management plans on indicators of social interaction, such as number of encounters.     

覆水场地地震反应分析

随着各种海洋结构物的兴建,覆水场地的地震反应逐渐成为研究热点。基于任意拉格朗日-欧拉描述,推导时变区域上的流体运动方程,给出流场、结构的接触条件和流场网格运动控制方法。对于平坦覆水场地,水平向地震动作用下,根据Couette流理论证明该类场地流体作用可以忽略;竖向地震动激励下,横向均匀场地可以通过动水压力公式准确考虑流体作用,横向非均匀场地则需要通过流固耦合方法考虑流体作用,以海底隧道为例加以说明。对于起伏场地,天然起伏场地在地震动激励下的动力反应具有明显的流固耦合特征,以三角形起伏场地为算例;结构物的兴建造成的人工起伏场地同样需要考虑流固耦合效应,以某沉管隧道在水平向地震动激励下的动力反应为算例,并根据结果初步提出该类结构物流固耦合分析的简化计算方法。     

Effects of acute γ-irradiation on the aquatic microbial microcosm in comparison with chemicals

Effects of acute γ-irradiation were investigated in the aquatic microcosm consisting of green algae (Chlorella sp. and Scenedesmus sp.) and a blue–green alga (Tolypothrix sp.) as producers; an oligochaete (Aeolosoma hemprichi), rotifers (Lecane sp. and Philodina sp.) and a ciliate protozoan (Cyclidium glaucoma) as consumers; and more than four species of bacteria as decomposers. At 100 Gy, populations were not affected in any taxa. At 500–5000 Gy, one or three taxa died out and populations of two or three taxa decreased over time, while that of Tolypothrix sp. increased. This Tolypothrix sp. increase was likely an indirect effect due to interspecies interactions. The principal response curve analysis revealed that the main trend of the effects was a dose-dependent population decrease. For a better understanding of radiation risks in aquatic microbial communities, effect doses of γ-rays compared with copper, herbicides and detergents were evaluated using the radiochemoecological conceptual model and the effect index for microcosm.     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.