Conceptual Framework of Tourism Carrying Capacity for a Tourism City： Experiences from National Parks in the United States

There is no universally-accepted definition of tourism carrying capacity(TCC).Numerical TCC focuses on use level and is considered as"a magic number"of the saturation point for tourism.There are several reasons why numerical tourism capacity is inadequate.Alternatively,tourism capacity can be defined in terms of limits of acceptable change,which shifts the focus from"how much use is too much"to"how much change is acceptable".This article proposes an improved conceptual framework for evaluating carrying capacity for the tourism city based on approaches used in US national parks,which consider the impact of human use on a city's economic,environmental/resource,and socio-cultural conditions.Based on the basic data of indicator values and relevant standards,the framework monitors the current indicators and predicts future indicator values; it can also be used to assess and predict TCC.     

Low dose effects and non-monotonic dose responses for endocrine active chemicals: Science to practice workshop: Workshop summary

A workshop was held in Berlin September 12–14th 2012 to assess the state of the science of the data supporting low dose effects and non-monotonic dose responses (“low dose hypothesis”) for chemicals with endocrine activity (endocrine disrupting chemicals or EDCs). This workshop consisted of lectures to present the current state of the science of EDC action and also the risk assessment process. These lectures were followed by breakout sessions to integrate scientists from various backgrounds to discuss in an open and unbiased manner the data supporting the “low dose hypothesis”. While no consensus was reached the robust discussions were helpful to inform both basic scientists and risk assessors on all the issues. There were a number of important ideas developed to help continue the discussion and improve communication over the next few years.     

Local to regional emission sources affecting mercury fluxes to New York lakes

Lake-sediment records across the Northern Hemisphere show increases in atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic mercury (Hg) over the last 150 years. Most of the previous studies have examined remote lakes affected by the global atmospheric Hg reservoir. In this study, we present Hg flux records from lakes in an urban/suburban setting of central New York affected also by local and regional emissions. Sediment cores were collected from the Otisco and Skaneateles lakes from the Finger Lakes region, Cross Lake, a hypereutrophic lake on the Seneca River, and Glacial Lake, a small seepage lake with a watershed that corresponds with the lake area. Sediment accumulation rates and dates were established by ²¹⁰Pb. The pre-anthropogenic regional atmospheric Hg flux was estimated to be 3.0 μg m⁻² yr⁻¹ from Glacial Lake, which receives exclusively direct atmospheric deposition. Mercury fluxes peaked during 1971–2001, and were 3 to more than 30 times greater than pre-industrial deposition. Land use change and urbanization in the Otisco and Cross watersheds during the last century likely enhanced sediment loads and Hg fluxes to the lakes. Skaneateles and Glacial lakes have low sediment accumulation rates, and thus are excellent indicators for atmospheric Hg deposition. In these lakes, we found strong correlations with emission records for the Great Lakes region that markedly increased in the early 1900s, and peaked during WWII and in the early 1970s. Declines in modern Hg fluxes are generally evident in the core records. However, the decrease in sediment Hg flux at Glacial Lake was interrupted and has increased since the early 1990s probably due to the operation of new local emission sources. Assuming the global Hg reservoir tripled since the pre-industrial period, the contribution of local and regional emission sources to central New York lakes was estimated to about 80% of the total atmospheric Hg deposition.     

Housing reconstruction after two major earthquakes: the 1994 Northridge earthquake in the United States and the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

The idea of pre-impact recovery planning has recently been promoted by researchers and practitioners, but very little research has been done to evaluate its effects on disaster recovery. This study compared two jurisdictions — the city of Los Angeles, California and Taichung county in Taiwan — in their recovery from earthquakes. Although the two cases also differ with respect to variables other than the presence of pre-impact recovery plans, the available data suggest that having a pre-impact recovery plan facilitates housing reconstruction and allows local officials to make more effective use of the window of opportunity after disaster to integrate hazard mitigation into the recovery process.     

Monitoring total suspended solids by using nephelometry

Correlation curves were developed relating nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) with total suspended solids (TSS) for diked upland dredged material placement site effluents of three US Army Corps of Engineers (COE) maintenance dredging projects in the Chesapeake Bay, Maryland. The procedure was developed in an effort to ensure compliance with Maryland's 400 milligrams per liter (mg/l) TSS standard for COE dredging projects. Samples of the sediments to be dredged were collected and analyzed, correlating turbidity readings with TSS determined by standard gravimetric techniques. The correlation curves were provided to the COE inspectors to measure the effluent with a turbidity meter and to extract a TSS concentration from the correlation curve. Samples collected and analyzed after initiation of the dredging indicated that the correlation curves were an overestimate of the actual TSS concentrations of the effluent discharges. The procedure, endorsed by the State of Maryland, provided immediate on-site TSS analysis eliminating the previously encountered delays in obtaining gravimetric analysis of effluent discharges and potential contract management problems.     

A multilevel analysis of private-vehicle evacuation clearance times along the US Gulf Coast

This study uses multilevel regression analysis to examine the effect of social characteristics and the built environment on clearance time under an evacuation scenario. The primary unit of analysis is the US Census tract (N?=?1660), nested within 31 incorporated places spanning five US states. The dependent variable is an estimate of clearance time in hours derived using network analysis techniques within a geographic information system. We find that tracts with a more peripheral location, more female residents, a higher proportion of Hispanic residents, and higher median household incomes are associated with higher clearance times, on average. Our research suggests the relationship between suburbanization and clearance time is complex and evolving, mediated by past investments in the built environment and shifting social conditions. In addition to facilitating the evacuation of areas with low access to personal vehicles, urban planners and emergency management officials should also consider how the degree of connectivity in the street network impacts congestion and clearance time.     

Indoor and outdoor air PBDE levels in a Southwestern US city

Levels of polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) flame retardants have been increasing in humans and the environment for the past few decades. Human levels are markedly higher in the US than Europe. Although food appears to be a significant route of intake, food PBDE levels are not substantially higher in the US than Europe. House and office dust appear to be major routes of exposure with air believed to usually provide a lesser route of intake. Because there are very few measurements of airborne PBDE that have been performed in relevant microenvironments in the US, increased efforts to assess airborne PBDE in the US as sources of exposure are needed. This study reports, for the first time from a Southwestern US city in Texas, the results of measurements of airborne PBDE in multiple locations, two outdoor and six indoor (residential and office) from active air sampling with collection of a combination of both vapor- and particulate-phase PBDE. Higher PBDE levels were measured in indoor than outdoor air, which confirms previous findings. Of 11 measured congeners including BDE 209, total PBDE levels in two outdoor air samples were 112 and 125 pg m^?3 and the indoor air levels ranged from 175 to 1232 pg m^?3 with a median of 572 pg m^?3. These findings suggest that sources of air contamination with PBDE may be similar in Texas as elsewhere in North America. However, more sampling is required to (1) better determine if this is the case and (2) attempt to characterize potential sources of PBDE contamination in both indoor and outdoor air by analysis of congener patterns.     

Air pollution transport in the Balkan region and country-to-country pollution exchange between Romania, Bulgaria and Greece

US EPA Models-3 system is used for calculating the exchange of ozone pollution between three countries in southeast Europe. For the purpose, three domains with resolution 90, 30 and 10 km are chosen in such a way that the most inner domain with dimensions 90 × 147 points covers entirely Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.The ozone pollution levels are studied on the base of three indexes given in the EU Ozone Directive, mainly accumulated over threshold of 40 ppb for crops (AOT40C, period May–July), number of days with 8-h running average over 60 ppb (NOD60) and averaged daily maximum (ADM). These parameters are calculated for every scenario and the influence of each country emissions on the pollution of the region is estimated and commented.Oxidized and reduced sulphur and nitrogen loads over the territories of the three countries are also determined. The application of all scenarios gave the possibility to estimate the contribution of every country to the S and N pollution of the others and detailed blame matrixes to be build.Comparison of the ozone levels model estimates with data from the EMEP monitoring stations is made.     

Inherently safer sustained casing pressure testing for well integrity evaluation

This paper presents the use of a model to predict sustained casing pressure (SCP), from early pressure buildup data, as a basis for inherently safer well integrity testing. Inherently safer principles aim to eliminate or reduce the hazards by design rather than by using protective features. SCP, a well integrity issue exhibited in many wells, is any measurable pressure that rebuilds after being bled down and attributable to causes other than artificially applied pressure or temperature fluctuations in the well. Intrusion of gas, resulting in SCP, can occur because of poor cement bond in the casing or cement deterioration. Gas entering the annulus migrates to the wellhead and represents a hazard due to increased wellhead pressure and the gas inventory. Compromised well integrity can have catastrophic consequences on both environmental and safety aspects.Most regulations require the monitoring, testing and, eventually, the elimination of SCP. However, test data analysis is predominantly qualitative and limited to arbitrary criteria. Due to the high percentage of wells that present SCP, accurate, safe and preferably fast testing methods are needed. This paper implements an analytical model, rooted in the transport processes and thermodynamics of the system, to predict pressure profiles and gas accumulation during SCP testing from early-time pressure buildup data. The amount of gas accumulated during different testing criteria, being 1) current practices and 2) early diagnostic by the analytical model, is calculated and compared. Results show that using the analytical model as a predictive tool, testing time is reduced significantly, thereby limiting the amount of gas accumulated and reducing the risk. This makes the testing procedure inherently safer as well as less time consuming.     

超声波/零价铁(US/Fe)协同降解氯酚类化合物的QSPR研究

在同一反应条件下测定US/Fe协同降解6种氯酚类化合物的降解速率常数(κ).采用软件Chemoffice2005内置的MOPAC2002计算氯酚类化合物的分子结构参数,运用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归分析方法,对氯酚类化合物进行定量结构-性质相关(QSPR)研究,得到预测性较好的模型.模型结果显示,影响US/Fe协同降解性能(logK)的主要因素是Vp、Ehomo、logKow、(Elumo-Ehomo)2和Elumo-Ehomo.推测在US/Fe协同体系中:(1)氯酚类化合物的降解反应不是以空化泡内热解反应为主;(2)Fe表面的吸附作用对降解反应起决定影响,且氯酚化合物与·OH的氧化反应占主导作用.