Non-regulated water contaminants: emerging research

Those chemical pollutants that are regulated under various international, federal, and state programs represent but a small fraction of the universe of chemicals that occur in the environment as a result of both natural processes and human influence. Although the number of these targeted chemicals might be minuscule compared with the universe of both known and yet-to-be identified chemicals, an implicit assumption is that these selective lists of chemicals are responsible for the most significant share of risk with respect to environmental or economic impairment or to human health. This paper examines some of the less-discussed aspects of the background and assumptions that underlie society's relationship with chemical pollutants in water, particularly with respect to the need for a more holistic understanding of exposure and risk.     

Evaluating response surface designs for uncertainty analysis and prescriptive applications of a large-scale water quality model

Environmental models are often too large and cumbersome for effective use in regulatory decision making or in the characterization of uncertainty. This paper describes and compares four response surfaces that could complement a large-scale water quality model, the U.S. National Water Pollution Control Assessment Model (NWPCAM), in simulation and regulatory decision support applications. Results show that a physically based reduced-form model that exploits the mathematical structure of the underlying water quality model is a better predictor of policy-relevant outputs than the polynomial expansions that are frequently used in response surface studies.     

Transition Pathways to Sustainable Agricultural Water Management: A Review of Integrated Modeling Approaches

Agricultural water management (AWM) is an interdisciplinary concern, cutting across traditional domains such as agronomy, climatology, geology, economics, and sociology. Each of these disciplines has developed numerous process‐based and empirical models for AWM. However, models that simulate all major hydrologic, water quality, and crop growth processes in agricultural systems are still lacking. As computers become more powerful, more researchers are choosing to integrate existing models to account for these major processes rather than building new cross‐disciplinary models. Model integration carries the hope that, as in a real system, the sum of the model will be greater than the parts. However, models based upon simplified and unrealistic assumptions of physical or empirical processes can generate misleading results which are not useful for informing policy. In this article, we use literature and case studies from the High Plains Aquifer and Southeastern United States regions to elucidate the challenges and opportunities associated with integrated modeling for AWM and recommend conditions in which to use integrated models. Additionally, we examine the potential contributions of integrated modeling to AWM — the actual practice of conserving water while maximizing productivity. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

基于LCS的应急决策文本相似性比对分析模型

作为应急管理中的主要工作内容,应急决策在整个应急管理工作中具有战略意义,为了对危机情境下的应急决策主体进行聚类分析,定量计算不同决策主体之间相应决策文本的区别。借鉴最长公共子序列模型（LCS）的原理,从决策文本中提取主题词,根据决策文本的特点将其分为“目标”和“行动”2级,结合样本总体确定替换矩阵、空位罚分规则和目标函数,构建高层应急决策文本相似性比对分析模型;运用Needleman Wunsch算法对该模型进行求解;通过对得到的地震情景下的高层应急决策文本的分析,证明模型的有效性和可行性;为了避免序列长度差过大对聚类分析的结果影响,在此基础上提出相对相似性得分的概念,并通过与VSM算法得到的结果进行比较,证明该模型在应急决策文本相似性分析中的优越性。     

基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员应急决策行为分析框架

为研究突发事件应急处置过程中关键官员的决策行为,充实面向高层官员的决策行为实证研究方法,提出基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员决策行为分析框架。通过设置情景、决策者、决策过程和决策变量以及变量间的作用关系建立框架运行理论内核,从情景选择到决策样本“生成→采集→处理→分析”各环节搭建框架支持完成高层官员决策行为的研究。通过某高层官员地震应急决策模拟演练实例,验证该分析框架的有效性。研究结果表明:基于“情景-应对”数据的分析框架可实现对高层官员决策行为的实证研究,可优化开发以支持更多元化的研究。     

铁路糖尿病患病职工血糖控制现状分析

了解某地区铁路糖尿病患病职工血糖控制情况,为改进健康干预措施提供依据。选取新诊断糖尿病职工272人及已确诊糖尿病职工175人,分析其健康体检结果及影响因素。结果表明,目前该地区糖尿病患病职工HbA1c <7%占46.98%,原已确诊糖尿病职工糖化血红蛋白控制率29.14%,入院治疗原因中健康体检检出血糖增高和出现糖尿病症状占75.43%,药物治疗率65.71%,运动和饮食控制率均为21.71%;新诊断与原已确诊糖尿病职工在血脂异常、肥胖、腹型肥胖差异有统计学意义。该地区糖尿病患病职工规范治疗后血脂异常、肥胖等有所降低,但糖尿病患病职工新诊断病例高、血糖控制率低,原已确诊糖尿病患病职工自我健康管理能力不足;提出应充分发挥健康体检筛查作用、早诊断早防治早干预、劝导规范就医、加强精准健康干预等建议。     

山岭隧道施工中塌方风险评估模型研究及应用

为评估隧道施工中塌方风险,以确定其可能性及严重程度作为2条主线。由文献调研并结合待评估隧道风险特征、施工现状、工程概况等建立塌方可能性评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)与多层次模糊综合决策确定塌方风险事件可能性等级,定性指标由专家评判确定对各可能性等级的隶属度,定量指标的隶属度以正态分布作为隶属函数求出;综合考虑多种事故后果类型,选用当量估计法确定塌方风险事件严重程度;最后基于风险矩阵法确定隧道塌方风险等级。将本模型应用于兴隆隧道1号斜井,经评估该斜井塌方风险等级为Ⅲ级,即较大风险,后续施工中须采取有效措施降低风险,减少风险可能导致的损失。     

Fuzzy dynamic risk-based maintenance investment optimization for offshore process facilities

A methodology for maintenance planning is developed which helps in improving the reliability of the components and safety performance in process facilities. This methodology helps design an optimum safety maintenance investment plan by integrating the optimization techniques and a fuzzy dynamic risk-based method. Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) is applied to deal with uncertain data. The proposed approach employs multi-experts’ knowledge which helps to optimize the maintenance investments. A separator system in an offshore process facility platform is selected as a case study to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology. A practical example in the separator system is surveyed and potential failures and Basic Events (BEs) are identified. Finally, a risk-based maintenance plan is provided for future safety investment analysis. The results indicate that the developed methodology estimates the risk more accurately, which enhances the reliability of future process operations.     

我国农用地土壤环境基准与标准制定研究

在分析我国现行土壤环境质量标准不足的基础上,综述了国外制定农用地土壤环境筛选值的现状,在此基础上提出我国农用地土壤环境基准制定方法学的建议以及我国农用地土壤环境标准体系的框架建议,服务于我国农用地土壤的污染预防、风险筛选和污染农用地的安全利用、修复和风险管控。     

基于贝叶斯方法的竖井中性面模型参数不确定性研究

随着高层建筑越来越多,其发生火灾的风险也越来越大,火灾烟气是导致火势蔓延和人员伤亡的主要原因,因此高层建筑防排烟设计问题可谓重中之重。建筑中性面的性质决定了其在防排烟设计中的关键地位,通过对建筑中性面位置的研究来优化建筑防排烟设计,减少火灾烟气对人和建筑的危害具有重要的意义。在前人工作的基础上,利用场模拟的方法得到样本值,并引入贝叶斯概率方法量化模型参数的不确定性,分析了竖井结构单一参数的不确定性对中性面位置分布的影响。旨在为火灾安全工程设计和竖井模型实验台设计,以及建筑竖向通道防排烟设计提供一定的参考。