西部地区产业结构优化路径分析

产业发展是区域经济发展的核心内容之一,产业结构更是直接关系到地区生产力水平、经济发展速度和质量、人民生活水平以及资源环境消耗.目前,国内外已有关于西部地区产业发展研究的文献,绝大部分都是大方向性的定性研究,定量研究还很少.在这种背景下,本文在文献回顾的基础上,首先通过测算区位熵、影响力系数及感应度系数,系统分析2000年以来西部地区产业结构动态演进过程及其存在的问题;然后,综合考虑经济增长及充分就业目标、能耗及污染物排放约束,建立产业结构优化模型,测算西部地区产业结构优化结果;最后,根据相关研究结果提出政策和建议.研究结果显示:(1)2000年实施西部大开发以来,西部地区产业发展水平明显提高,形成了以能源化工、矿产资源开发及加工、特色农产品加工为主的产业体系;但产业结构调整并没有取得实质性进展,产业结构仍然偏重,具有明显的资源依赖性.(2)西部地区产业结构优化路径可以划分为经济发展路径及绿色发展路径.绿色发展路径的测算结果显示,西部地区产业结构优化要积极发展装备制造业和轻纺工业,并优化提升现有的能源化工、矿产开发及加工业及农产品加工业,以达到《西部大开发“十二五”规划》及国家下达的节能减排指标.(3)在未来的发展中,西部地区要优化提升现有主导产业,建立低碳发展机制;积极进行技术创新,提高产品附加值,构建绿色西部;积极完善资源开发补偿机制,构建资源节约型西部;加强污染防治,提高资源利用效率,建立循环经济制度.     

中国西部地区生态扶贫策略研究

西部地区是我国贫困面最大、贫困程度最深的地区,同时也是生态环境最脆弱的地区.改革开放以来,虽然西部地区社会经济发展水平得到了一定的提高,但与东中部地区的收入差距却在不断的扩大.同时,随着全国贫困人口绝对规模的减少,贫困人口的分布进一步向西部地区集中,生态环境在诸多致贫因素中越来越突出.文章从西部贫困地区与生态脆弱区和重要生态功能区空间分布的关联性以及地区贫困对生态环境的影响等方面深入解析了西部地区贫困和生态环境互为因果的耦合机理;分析了当前西部地区扶贫开发面临的生态环境、资金、人力资本、管理体制等方面的严峻挑战;提出了生态扶贫的概念和基本内涵,即:生态建设与扶贫开发同步进行,生态恢复与脱贫致富相互协调;设计了原地扶贫和离地扶贫两大生态扶贫模式,并提出了不同生态扶贫模式的特点、实施范围和基本内容.原地扶贫通过创造生态管护就业岗位,发展当地特色生态绿色产业体系,实现贫困人口在当地就业,增加贫困人口的收入.同时,通过拓展整村推进和本地教育工程,改善贫困地区生产、生活条件,提高贫困人口稳定脱贫能力.离地扶贫则以生态移民为主,并结合城镇化战略,引导贫困地区劳动力向城镇和东部沿海地区转移,通过异地就业、生活实现脱贫.最后,提出了实施生态扶贫战略的相关政策建议,包括以教育为核心的人力资本开发,以特色农副产品开发、特色生态旅游和绿色品牌建设为核心的特色优势产业发展,以及以生态移民制度和政府管理体制为核心的制度建设创新等.     

News

Western China has lagged a lot in terms of industrial structure and economic development, compared with the national average. And China announced its target of CO₂ emission reduction, i.e. by 2020, CO₂ emission per GDP will drop by 40–45% compared with 2005. The target will be incorporated into China’s long-term industrial planning. Against this background, this paper will make a comprehensive examination of the industrial development of Western China, aiming to discover a green and compatible way. First, we analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of regional industrial structure for the period 2000–2010. Second, we try to discover the industrial structure optimization path for Western China by employing the Vector Auto Regression model. Lastly, we try to provide some advice and suggestions for further industrial development in Western China. Our examination shows that further industrial development in Western China should pay full attention to resource conservation and recycling, and develop on a green and compatible path.     

厦门西港近岸沉积物重金属污染历史及源解析

分析厦门西港潮间带柱状沉积物中14种重金属元素(Sc、V、Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn、Sr、Cd、Sb、Tl、Pb、Fe和Hg)的垂向分布特征、污染历史和污染来源.结果表明, 1795年之前,多数重金属元素含量变化趋势较平稳;1795~1849年间,Sc、Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Sr、Cd、Tl、Pb和Hg含量有明显增加;2001~2011年间,Sc、Cr、Co、Sr、Tl、Pb和Hg含量又有增加趋势.多元统计分析结果表明,沉积柱中重金属元素主要有3大来源:交通和工业活动、自然源、工业和生活污水排放,贡献率分别是72.87%、12.20%和10.99%.柱状沉积物中铅同位素示踪分析表明,铅同位素组成从底层至表层由工业活动及污水排放逐步向机动车尾气排放漂移,厦门西港近岸海域中铅污染主要受交通和工业活动、工业和生活污水排放的影响.     

Do developmental initiatives influence local attitudes toward conservation? A case study from the Kalakad–Mundanthurai Tiger Reserve,India

We evaluated the conservation attitudes of the local villagers living adjacent to the Kalakad-Mundanthurai Tiger Reserve in southern India 6 years after implementation of a World Bank funded eco-development project. We assessed attitudes towards three facets of conservation: the tiger, an emblematic species signifying India's commitment to wildlife conservation; the forest, a principle source of fuel-wood and other products; and the Forest Department, which manages the forest. More specifically we predicted that (i) attitudes would be an effective predictor of resource use interest in the forest and (ii) benefits obtained from the EDP would create more favorable attitudes towards conservation and the protected area employees. Twelve villages located within 3 km from the reserve boundary were chosen and 2-3% of the households interviewed with regard to their attitudes towards these three facets of conservation, their household resource use patterns, wealth, sex, age and length of residency. We found significant associations between wealth, sex, age and both tiger and forest conservation. Providing benefits has not changed the underlying attitudes of the communities. The poorer sections of society, whether receiving benefits or not, tended to support tiger conservation because conserving wildlife did not affect their livelihood in any way, whereas both the rich and poor had misgivings about forest conservation due to dependency on forest products. We conclude that the eco-development project has not effectively addressed the most important of the local concerns.     

西部大开发政策效应评价

经过15年的西部大开发,西部各个省份的综合发展水平怎样?西部大开发是否显著缩小西部与东部地区在综合发展水平和经济增长的差异?哪些政策起到了关键作用?是本文将要探讨的问题。研究方法主要是通过模型与数据的实证研究方法对西部大开发的政策效应进行评价。内容包括:一是通过构建包含了社会、经济、科教与文化、对外开放和资源与环境五大类25个分项指标的综合发展水平评价体系,使用从1997到2013年31个省市的指标数据,并计算出综合评价值来考察西部大开发政策对西部地区各个省份整体发展的影响。从评价值排名上来看发现只有重庆、陕西、四川和内蒙古综合发展水平排名提升明显,而新疆、宁夏和青海发展差距还在拉大,其他省份排名变化不大。从分类指标来看,西部地区整体上社会发展和资源环境与生态提升较为明显,说明中央对于公共服务的转移支付和"退耕还林还草"等保护环境与生态的政策起到了一定的成效。二是选取了交通基础设施建设、中央转移支付和税收优惠这三个主要政策作为计量模型的政策变量,分别考察西部大开发整体和分项政策对于综合发展水平和经济增长率的影响。通过系统GMM方法估计整体西部大开发整体政策效应,以2000年前后对比,政策实施对GDP增长率的提升并不显著,综合发展水平也没有收敛。而以2008年为时间节点,综合发展水平和经济增长速度都得到了显著提升。通过DID估计分项政策,结果表明基础设施投入和转移支付能够有效提升综合发展水平和经济增长速度,税收优惠提升相对较弱。本文建议:在交通基础设施投入方面继续对西部地区予以倾斜,特别是建设西部地区通往东中部地区的交通大通道;培育和完善西部地区的市场经济体系,政府较少干预企业投资决策;加强对于西部落后地区、偏远地区的公共产品投入,加强扶贫工作。     

西部资源型城市绿色发展效率时空分异与驱动力

绿色发展是资源型城市高质量转型的重要体现。通过构建绿色发展效率评价体系,基于MinDs模型、泰尔指数、地理探测器等方法,测算2001—2019年西部资源型城市绿色发展效率时空分异特征,分析其驱动因素。结论如下：（1）西部资源型城市绿色发展效率以2015年为界,呈“先升后降”变化,西北、广西的资源型城市整体上升,西南和内蒙古的资源型城市近年呈下降趋势,成长型城市发展较为稳定,成熟型和再生型城市2017年后下降明显,衰退型城市呈上升趋势;（2）西部资源型城市绿色发展效率表现为极低和极高区间数量少、中间得分数量多的正态分布特征;（3）绿色发展效率空间非均衡的问题较为严重,其中,西北与西南地区的成熟型城市的变化是导致绿色发展效率差异扩大的主要原因;（4）经济发展、城市化、城市规模和技术创新能够显著提升西部资源型城市绿色发展效率,不同空间范围和不同生命周期下的资源型城市绿色发展效率驱动因素各有特点。研究对提升西部各类资源型城市绿色发展效率有实际意义。     

基于对应分析法的吉林西部地下水化学特征时空演化研究

运用对应分析方法,分析了吉林西部地下水化学特征随时间、空间的变化.对研究区进行了分区,分别确定了各区的主要影响因子,并分析了各区的主要因子随时间的变化趋势.最后,结合吉林西部的水文地质条件与人类活动,分析了地下水化学成分的来源及成因.结果显示,吉林西部地下水按照其水质特征可分为3个区:Ⅰ区,位于山前平原的通榆北部、长岭南部等地及盐碱区,阴离子主要为HCO-3,总碱度大,动态变化平稳;Ⅱ区,位于西部山前平原与中部低平原区间过渡带的洮南中部、通榆东北部等地,Ca2+、Mg2+含量高,硬度大,NO-3-N含量较高,且有增大趋势;Ⅲ区,位于低平原区的乾安、前郭、大安地区,主要为高矿化度水,阴离子主要为SO2-4、Cl-,阳离子为Na+,矿化度有增大趋势.上述分析结果符合当地实际.研究表明,地下水化学特征时空演化研究可为地下水污染的防治、生态环境的改善提供重要依据.     

The portrayal of disaster in Western fine art

This paper surveys the depiction of disaster in Western art over the centuries. Emphasis is placed on the Italian tradition, as Italy is a country that has a rich experience of both artistic developments and disasters and has provided inspiration to artists from other countries. The survey begins with Classical art and continues with the Mediaeval fresco tradition. The vision of disaster was expanded when naturalism was introduced into art during the Renaissance. Whereas earthquakes had been a prime motivation for artistic representations in the Mediaeval period, during the Baroque volcanic eruptions seem to have been more popular, especially given the remarkable artistic output around Mount Vesuvius in the 18th century. Marine painters concentrated on storm and shipwreck, but often with delineations of extreme atmospheric phenomena. In the 19th century John Martin and others painted the Apocalypse. In the 20th century, Expressionism favoured lively depictions of natural hazards and so, surprisingly, did certain forms of metaphysical abstraction. Disaster has been seen in Western fine art in six ways: as spectacle, as allegory (through Classical mythology or Biblical drama), as a votive instrument of atonement, as a visual commemoration of an extreme event, and as a dramatization of a metaphysical proposition.     

SYNTHESIS OF DATA FROM STUDIES BY THE NATIONAL IRRIGATION WATER-QUALITY PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: From 1986 to 1993, the National Irrigation Water-Quality Program (NIWQP) of the U.S. Department of the Interior studied whether contamination was induced by irrigation drainage in 26 areas of the Western United States. In 1992, a study to evaluate and synthesize data collected during these 26 investigations began. Selenium, boron, and molybdenum are the trace elements and DDT the pesticide most commonly found in surface water at concentrations exceeding chronic criteria for the protection of aquatic life. In six of the areas, the median selenium concentration exceeded the criterion. Aquatic-life criteria have not been developed for uranium, but the median uranium concentration exceeded the proposed Maximum Contaminant Level for drinking water in seven areas. A principal components analysis indicates that severity of selenium contamination is not related to the severity of contamination by boron, molybdenum, and arsenic. Arsenic, boron, molybdenum, and selenium concentrations are nearly the same in both filtered and unfiltered samples, which indicates that contaminant concentrations in filtered samples can be directly compared with biological-effects data developed using unfiltered samples. At a given site, selenium concentrations in surface water can change by an order of magnitude during the course of a year and from one year to another.