Microtargeting for conservation

Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high-resolution land-cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.     

Realities of offering advice to governments on CITES

What happens when those who provide conservation advice are required to take policy and management action based on that advice? Conservation advocates and scientists often try to prompt regulatory change that has significant implications for government without facing the challenge of managing such change. Through a case study, we placed ourselves in the role of the government of Thailand, facing obligations to seahorses (Hippocampus spp.) under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). These obligations include ensuring that its exports of seahorses do not damage wild populations. We applied a CITES-approved framework (which we developed) to evaluate the risks of such exports to 2 seahorse species. We used the framework to evaluate the pressures that put wild populations of the species at risk; whether current management mitigates the risk or offsets these pressures; and whether the species is responding as hoped to management policy. We based our analysis on information in published and grey literature, local knowledge, citizen science data, results of government research, and expert opinion. To meet CITES obligations, exports of both species would need to be prohibited until more precautionary adaptive management emerged. The risk of any exports of Hippocampus trimaculatus was above a tolerable level because of a lack of appropriate management to mitigate risks. In contrast, the risk of any exports of Hippocampus kuda could become tolerable if monitoring were put in place to assess the species’ response to management. The process we developed for Authorities to determine risk in response to CITES guidelines was challenging to implement even without the need for government to consider social implications of conservation action. Despite the imperfections of our risk evaluation, however, it still served to support adaptive management. Conservationists need to keep implementation in mind when offering advice.     

The ethics of genetic engineering and gene drives in conservation

The ethical issues associated with using genetic engineering and gene drives in conservation are typically described as consisting of risk assessment and management, public engagement and acceptance, opportunity costs, risk and benefit distributions, and oversight. These are important, but the ethical concerns extend beyond them because the use of genetic engineering has the potential to significantly alter the practices, concepts, and value commitments of conservation. I sought to elucidate the broader set of ethical issues connected with a potential genetic engineering turn in conservation and provide an approach to ethical analysis of novel conservation technologies. The primary rationales offered in support of using genetic engineering and gene drives in conservation are efficiency and necessity for achieving conservation goals. The instrumentalist ethical perspective associated with these rationales involves assessing novel technologies as a means to accomplish desired ends. For powerful emerging technologies the instrumentalist perspective needs to be complemented by a form-of-life perspective frequently applied in the philosophy of technology. The form-of-life perspective involves considering how novel technologies restructure the activities into which they are introduced. When the form-of-life perspective is applied to creative genetic engineering in conservation, it brings into focus a set of ethical issues, such as those associated with power, meaning, relationships, and values, that are not captured by the instrumentalist perspective. It also illuminates why the use of gene drives in conservation is so ethically and philosophically interesting.     

Suspected flunixin poisoning of a wild Eurasian Griffon Vulture from Spain

Exposure to residues of the nonsteroidal anti‐inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac present in livestock carcasses has caused extensive declines in 3 Gyps vulture species across Asia. The carcass of a wild Eurasian Griffon Vulture (Gyps fulvus) was found in 2012 on an Andalucian (Spain) game hunting reserve and examined forensically. The bird had severe visceral gout, a finding consistent with Gyps vultures from Asia that have been poisoned by diclofenac. Liver and kidney samples from this Eurasian Griffon Vulture contained elevated flunixin (an NSAID) levels (median = 2.70 and 6.50 mg/kg, respectively). This is the first reported case of a wild vulture being exposed to and apparently killed by an NSAID outside Asia. It is also the first reported instance of mortality in the wild resulting from environmental exposure to an NSAID other than diclofenac. Caso de Sospecha de Envenenamiento por Flunixin de un Buitre Leonado en España     

Voluntary participation for sustainability transition: experiences from the ‘Commitment to Sustainable Development 2050’

Voluntary and active participation by a wide variety of actors is a prerequisite for successful societal transitions towards sustainability. The ‘Commitment to Sustainable Development 2050’ is a national-level initiative in Finland, aiming to mobilise a large-scale transition involving various societal actors through openly communicated commitments to concrete actions. Each commitment should focus on at least one of the eight nationally defined sustainability objectives connected to the global Sustainable Development Goals. This article assesses the implementation and the development needs of the commitment process based on a range of materials. The results highlight the importance of securing adequate resources for long-term coordination and continuous development of the commitment process, trust creation through long-term and open communication, and flexibility allowing for experimentation aimed at finding new modes of interaction between the public and private sectors.     

Quantifying progress toward a conservation assessment for all plants

The Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) set an ambitious target to achieve a conservation assessment for all known plant species by 2020. We consolidated digitally available plant conservation assessments and reconciled their scientific names and assessment status to predefined standards to provide a quantitative measure of progress toward this target. The 241,919 plant conservation assessments generated represent 111,824 accepted land plant species (vascular plants and bryophytes, not algae). At least 73,081 and up to 90,321 species have been assessed at the global scale, representing 21–26% of known plant species. Of these plant species, at least 27,148 and up to 32,542 are threatened. Eighty plant families, including some of the largest, such as Asteraceae, Orchidaceae, and Rubiaceae, are underassessed and should be the focus of assessment effort if the GSPC target is to be met by 2020. Our data set is accessible online (ThreatSearch) and is a baseline that can be used to directly support other GSPC targets and plant conservation action. Although around one‐quarter of a million plant assessments have been compiled, the majority of plants are still unassessed. The challenge now is to build on this progress and redouble efforts to document conservation status of unassessed plants to better inform conservation decisions and conserve the most threatened species.     

基于热湿交换理论的巷道风流温、湿度影响因素研究

为了研究巷道风流参数的影响因素、预测风流温湿度的变化规律,结合热湿交换理论,建立了风流与围岩壁面之间热湿交换的数学模型,以及贴体坐标系下围岩内部温度场的导热微分方程;利用数值方法,将围岩内部的导热问题与影响风流参数变化的热湿交换问题耦合起来,并以大柳塔煤矿52505综采工作面为例进行计算,得到了与实测参数较为一致的模拟结果,验证了该数值方法的有效性。研究结果表明:风流温度受原始岩温、入风流温度、局部热源强度等因素的影响,风流相对湿度与入风流温、湿度以及井下湿源的数量和强度有关;巷道壁温作为将围岩温度场与风流参数之间关联起来的主要因素,对模拟结果影响较大,其数值取决于壁面与风流之间热湿交换以及围岩原始岩温。     

人因视角下建筑安全研究现状及发展趋势分析

为了提高建筑安全后续研究的有效性与针对性,从人因视角对其研究现状及发展趋势进行了系统总结。采用定性文献综述的方法从实践需求和理论发展2个维度对国内外人因相关文献资料进行梳理、研判,通过明确焦点领域、核心方向、关键关注点等途径以明晰建筑安全研究现状及发展趋势,确定发展瓶颈,据此介入寻求突破的可能。研究结果表明:建筑工人不安全行为心理研究不足是人因视角下制约建筑安全理论发展的瓶颈,也是提升建筑安全管理应对的关键着力点;同时,从认知过程新视角证实了基于认知神经学范畴的研究是突破上述瓶颈的关键方向,在此基础上结合神经测量技术ERP新工具论证了该论断的可行性,为后续研究提供借鉴。     

基于煤矿安全生产标准化的双控机制APP系统研究

针对我国煤矿安全生产标准化工作中数据采集的时效性差、数据录入工作量繁琐、数据汇总分析不明确的问题,利用易安卓编程语言与SQLite数据库技术,采用瀑布生命周期模型的软件开发方法,以《煤矿安全生产标准化考核定级办法》中双控机制的基本内容为依据,设计包括个人信息管理、法律知识库检索、安全风险分级管控、事故隐患排查治理、数据可视化分析、其他6大功能模块的APP系统。结果表明:该系统可提供适合相关管理人员使用的可视化界面,减少了复杂繁琐的工作量,为标准化工作的定点巡检与数据的完整性提供了良好的技术支持,也为非煤矿山、冶金、石油化工等行业的标准化工作实现信息化管理提供了较好的应用模式。     

国际持续农业发展的特点及广东省持续农业的现状和方向

近年来国际上提出将持续农业作为农业生产发展的战略目标，本文综述了国际上发展持续农业的形式及特点，论述广东省持续农业的现状和发展持续农业面临的挑战，最后针对广东省目前的实际情况，提出今后的发展方向和对策．