江苏数字地震台网地震监测能力估算

采用理论计算和实测相结合的方法估计了江苏数字地震台网的地震监测能力。虽然用两种方法得到的监测区略有差异 ,但几何形状相近 ,其公共区域部分更趋合理地反映了目前江苏数字地震台网的监测范围。比较了速度型和位移型地震记录的差异 ,并讨论了其监测范围差异的原因     

江苏省防震减灾信息网络主页的实现

介绍了江苏省防震减灾信息网络主页的设计方案 ,探讨了Web服务器的选择、浏览器兼容性问题、网页内容与结构布局、地震数据的动态交互 ,HTML/DHTML功能扩展及网络安全 5个方面的问题。重点讨论了防震减灾信息与数据的Web实现和网络安全。     

多水源用水网络优化模型研究

为了解决含有多类供水水源的用水网络优化设计问题,研究了过程工业用水特点,将各用水单元看成水阱,各单元的排水看成潜在水源,从而将供水问题转化为水阱和水源的匹配问题,建立用于多水源用水网络优化的配水模型,并详细阐述该模型应用步骤及其特点。     

Towards socially just adaptive climate governance: the transformative potential of conflict

Conflict is an important factor in ongoing climate change debates and its role in management is under increasing scrutiny. In this paper, I present the results of an advanced discourse analysis that analyses trends in the relationship between conflict and climate change. I present two primary discourses dominate discussion: (i) climate as a security risk and (ii) climate as one of many factors affecting power relations that may lead to conflict. Both narratives implicitly or explicitly discuss climate conflict as a cause–outcome relationship, and further primarily construct conflict and climate change within normative frames. Yet, conflict has transformative potential and can be incorporated into management in ways that harness its capacity to drive innovation and lead to more robust and just adaptive governance. I argue for a shift in the discursive frame from a cause– outcome-oriented approach to a process-driven approach, one that treats conflict as an integral part of adaptive governance processes, thus being more just and equitable. Such a shift in focus can lead to positive on ground climate adaptation outcomes, in ways that respect rather than are counter-intuitive to dominant political and societal imbalances and institutional structures.     

Aligning science and policy to achieve evolutionarily enlightened conservation

There is increasing recognition among conservation scientists that long‐term conservation outcomes could be improved through better integration of evolutionary theory into management practices. Despite concerns that the importance of key concepts emerging from evolutionary theory (i.e., evolutionary principles and processes) are not being recognized by managers, there has been little effort to determine the level of integration of evolutionary theory into conservation policy and practice. We assessed conservation policy at 3 scales (international, national, and provincial) on 3 continents to quantify the degree to which key evolutionary concepts, such as genetic diversity and gene flow, are being incorporated into conservation practice. We also evaluated the availability of clear guidance within the applied evolutionary biology literature as to how managers can change their management practices to achieve better conservation outcomes. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of maintaining genetic diversity, conservation policies provide little guidance about how this can be achieved in practice and other relevant evolutionary concepts, such as inbreeding depression, are mentioned rarely. In some cases the poor integration of evolutionary concepts into management reflects a lack of decision‐support tools in the literature. Where these tools are available, such as risk‐assessment frameworks, they are not being adopted by conservation policy makers, suggesting that the availability of a strong evidence base is not the only barrier to evolutionarily enlightened management. We believe there is a clear need for more engagement by evolutionary biologists with policy makers to develop practical guidelines that will help managers make changes to conservation practice. There is also an urgent need for more research to better understand the barriers to and opportunities for incorporating evolutionary theory into conservation practice.     

Use of monitoring data to support conservation management and policy decisions in Micronesia

Adaptive management implies a continuous knowledge‐based decision‐making process in conservation. Yet, the coupling of scientific monitoring and management frameworks remains rare in practice because formal and informal communication pathways are lacking. We examined 4 cases in Micronesia where conservation practitioners are using new knowledge in the form of monitoring data to advance marine conservation. These cases were drawn from projects in Micronesia Challenge jurisdictions that received funding for coupled monitoring‐to‐management frameworks and encompassed all segments of adaptive management. Monitoring in Helen Reef, Republic of Palau, was catalyzed by coral bleaching and revealed evidence of overfishing that led to increased enforcement and outreach. In Nimpal Channel, Yap, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), monitoring the recovery of marine food resources after customary restrictions were put in place led to new, more effective enforcement approaches. Monitoring in Laolao Bay, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, was catalyzed by observable sediment loads from poor land‐use practices and resulted in actions that reduced land‐based threats, particularly littering and illegal burning, and revealed additional threats from overfishing. Pohnpei (FSM) began monitoring after observed declines in grouper spawning aggregations. This data led to adjusting marine conservation area boundaries and implementing market‐based size class restrictions. Two themes emerged from these cases. First, in each case monitoring was conducted in a manner relevant to the social and ecological systems and integrated into the decision‐making process. Second, conservation practitioners and scientists in these cases integrated culturally appropriate stakeholder engagement throughout all phases of the adaptive management cycle. More broadly, our study suggests, when describing adaptive management, providing more details on how monitoring and management activities are linked at similar spatial scales and across similar time frames can enhance the application of knowledge.     

Internal corrosion hazard assessment of oil & gas pipelines using Bayesian belief network model

A substantial amount of oil & gas products are transported and distributed via pipelines, which can stretch for thousands of kilometers. In British Columbia (BC), Canada, alone there are over 40,000 km of pipelines currently being operated. Because of the adverse environmental impact, public outrage and significant financial losses, the integrity of the pipelines is essential. More than 37 pipe failures per year occur in BC causing liquid spills and gas releases, damaging both property and environment. BC oil & gas commission (BCOGS) has indicated metal loss due to internal corrosion as one of the primary causes of these failures. Therefore, it is of a paramount importance to timely identify pipelines subjected to severe internal corrosion in order to improve corrosion mitigation and pipeline maintenance strategies, thus minimizing the likelihood of failure. To accomplish this task, this paper presents a Bayesian belief network (BBN)-based probabilistic internal corrosion hazard assessment approach for oil & gas pipelines. A cause-effect BBN model has been developed by considering various information, such as analytical corrosion models, expert knowledge and published literature. Multiple corrosion models and failure pressure models have been incorporated into a single flexible network to estimate corrosion defects and associated probability of failure (PoF). This paper also explores the influence of fluid composition and operating conditions on the corrosion rate and PoF. To demonstrate the application of the BBN model, a case study of the Northeastern BC oil & gas pipeline infrastructure is presented. Based on the pipeline's mechanical characteristics and operating conditions, spatial and probabilistic distributions of corrosion defect and PoF have been obtained and visualized with the aid of the Geographic Information System (GIS). The developed BBN model can identify vulnerable pipeline sections and rank them accordingly to enhance the informed decision-making process.     

The Need to Disentangle Key Concepts from Ecosystem‐Approach Jargon

The ecosystem approach—as endorsed by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CDB) in 2000—is a strategy for holistic, sustainable, and equitable natural resource management, to be implemented via the 12 Malawi Principles. These principles describe the need to manage nature in terms of dynamic ecosystems, while fully engaging with local peoples. It is an ambitious concept. Today, the term is common throughout the research and policy literature on environmental management. However, multiple meanings have been attached to the term, resulting in confusion. We reviewed references to the ecosystem approach from 1957 to 2012 and identified 3 primary uses: as an alternative to ecosystem management or ecosystem‐based management; in reference to an integrated and equitable approach to resource management as per the CBD; and as a term signifying a focus on understanding and valuing ecosystem services. Although uses of this term and its variants may overlap in meaning, typically, they do not entirely reflect the ethos of the ecosystem approach as defined by the CBD. For example, there is presently an increasing emphasis on ecosystem services, but focusing on these alone does not promote decentralization of management or use of all forms of knowledge, both of which are integral to the CBD's concept. We highlight that the Malawi Principles are at risk of being forgotten. To better understand these principles, more effort to implement them is required. Such efforts should be evaluated, ideally with comparative approaches, before allowing the CBD's concept of holistic and socially engaged management to be abandoned or superseded. It is possible that attempts to implement all 12 principles together will face many challenges, but they may also offer a unique way to promote holistic and equitable governance of natural resources. Therefore, we believe that the CBD's concept of the ecosystem approach demands more attention. La Necesidad de Desenredar Conceptos Clave del Argot Ambiente‐Estrategia     

A neuro-fuzzy algorithm for assessment of health,safety, environment and ergonomics in a large petrochemical plant

Process plants such as petrochemical units have been continuously trying to improve Health, Safety, Environment and Ergonomics (HSEE) programs. This study proposes an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for assessment of HSEE programs in a petrochemical plant. The proposed neuro-fuzzy approach is applied to a set of operators in the petrochemical unit to show its applicability and superiority. To achieve the objectives of this study, standard questionnaires with respect to HSEE are completed by operators. The average results for each category of HSEE are used as inputs and accomplishment of HSEE programs is used as output for the algorithm. Moreover, this algorithm is used to rank operators performance with respect to HSEE. Finally, the algorithm identifies efficient operators with respect to HSEE. This is the first study that introduces an intelligence algorithm for assessment and improvement of HSEE program in a petrochemical plant.     

Social capital as a key determinant of perceived benefits of community‐based marine protected areas

Globally, marine protected areas (MPAs) have been relatively unsuccessful in meeting biodiversity objectives. To be effective, they require some alteration of people's use and access to marine resources, which they will resist if they do not perceive associated benefits. Stakeholders’ support is crucial to ecological success of MPAs, and their support is likely to depend on their capacity to adapt to and benefit from MPAs. We examined the influence of social adaptive capacity (SAC) on perceived benefits of MPAs in Siquijor, Philippines, in the Coral Triangle. This region has substantial biodiversity and a population of over 120 million people, many of them dependent on marine resources for food and income. The region has many MPAs, most of which are managed under decentralized governance systems. We collected survey data from 540 households in 19 villages with associated MPAs. We evaluated the influence of multiple SAC variables (e.g., occupational multiplicity and social capital) on perceived benefits with decision trees (CHAID) and qualitatively analyzed this relationship with respect to types and recipients of benefits. Our models revealed the key role of social capital, particularly trust in leadership, in influencing perceptions of benefits (χ² = 14.762, p = 0.000). A path analysis revealed that perceptions of distributional equity were a key mechanism through which social capital affected perceived MPA benefits (root mean‐square error of approximation = 0.050). Building social capital and equity within communities could lead to more effective management of MPAs and thus to expenditure of fewer resources relative to, for example, regulation enforcement.