PARAMETRIC/NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE DENSITY ESTIMATION WITH APPLICATION TO FLOOD-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

Much attention has been invested in the model choice problem for peak annual flows, in the context of flood frequency analysis. The authors would sidestep this dilemma through non-parametric density estimation methodology, but recognize that the standard nonparametric estimators preclude the use of prior information and related data, and furthermore have virtually no tail at all. Here we offer a remedy for these inadequacies by introducing an estimator which mixes parametric and nonparametric density estimates. We prove that our mixture rule is consistent. By this procedure, we do allow incorporation of prior information, experience, and regional data information, but nevertheless provide a safeguard against incorrect model choice.     

PATTERNS OF WATERSHED MONTHLY RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Two dimensional sliding polynomials were adapted to pattern analysis of watershed monthly rainfall and runoff. Contours of runoff in the two-dimensional space of time and rainfall are constructed on a grid of 16 nodes whose values are determined by least squares. This method is form free, hence derived patterns are not biased to selected functional forms, but can directly represent the smoothed data. Values of the nodes are localized averages of the data constrained by required mathematical continuity across the grid of values. An advantage of the method is that the standard deviation can be calculated for each node, thus producing patterns of uncertainty of the deterministic component revealed by the data.     

400 YEARS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY RECONSTRUCTED FROM TREE-RINGS1

ABSTRACT: Coastal central California is a region that has never been the subject of tree-ring studies. New tree-ring chronologies developed from cores of big cone spruce (Pseudotusuga macrocarpa (Torr.) Mayr.) growing in the Transverse Ranges of central Santa Barbara county were used to reconstruct precipitation fluctuations for this region. To verify the new reconstructions, calibration with recorded rainfall using cross-validation, comparison with other reconstructions, and documentary evidence from historical sources were utilized. The precipitation reconstructions show that there have not been fluctuations in mean precipitation on time scales longer than 30 years, but there have been major fluctuations in precipitation variability including changes in the frequency of extremes and rare events that have not occurred in the modern record.     

APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.     

MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF PARAMETERS RELATED TO LAKE ACIDIFICATION IN QUEBEC1

ABSTRACT Physico-chemical data from 234 lakes were collected during the spring and summer of 1980 by the Quebec Ministry of the Environment, the Quebec Ministry of Recreation, Hunting and Fishing and the Canadian Wildlife Service. A statistical method, based on the joint use of factorial correspondence analysis and cluster analysis, was applied to these data to obtain a general picture of the spatial variability of a number of physico-chemical parameters related to the sensitivity or acidification of lakewaters. This method was first applied to the entire Quebec territory, and showed that the part of Quebec lying on the Canadian shield is especially vulnerable to acidification. The method also showed that the southwestern portion of this area of Quebec was more substantially affected by acid fallout. A detailed study of spatial variability over the shield area revealed the existence of greater spatial heterogeneity. More precisely, it was possible to pinpoint zones which are highly vulnerable to acid precipitation and zones whose lakes show clear signs of acidification resulting from such precipitation. These two statistical analyses led to a first general diagnosis on lake acidification in Quebec. They contributed to the rationalization of data acquisition in Quebec by delimitating zones where network density needs to be increased.     

离子色谱法测定降水中的阳离子

应用Waters新型阳离子分离柱快速，准确地一次性同时测定降水中阳离子（Na^ ,NH4^ ,K^ ,Mg^2 ,Ca^2 )，该方法具有良好的精密度、线性相关系数和加标回收率。     

城市街道地表物特性分析

通过对城市街道地表物的收集、处理、分析和典型降水的径流冲刷实测,全面探究了城市街道地表物的分布、累积和冲刷规律,并对其污染物的含量和污染物总量进行了定量计算。为现代城市非点源污染截污处理和环境综合整治提供了理论和实践依据。     

MULTI-MEDIA CONCENTRATIONS OF HEAVY METALS AND MAJOR IONS FROM URBAN AND RURAL SITES IN NEW BRUNSWICK, CANADA

Concentrations of heavy metals and major ions were measured in precipitation, snowpack, garden soils and vegetables from urban and rural sites in New Brunswick in Atlantic Canada. Atmospheric loading of mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, strontium, and vanadium need further assessment. Vanadium concentrations in precipitation, snowpack, soils and vegetables showed an urban influence. Vanadium concentrations in the snowpack ranged between <2.0 ppb at 50 kilometers from the city center to 31.4 ppb in the city. Concentrations of all heavy metals in urban soils were less than CCME remediation guidelines but selected metals exceeded the assessment benchmark non-regulatory guidelines. Major ions were consistently higher in event precipitation than the snowpack. The order of ion elution from the snowpack was NO3 > SO4 > NH4 > H > Mg > Cl > Na > K. Hydrogen ion equivalents were highest in the snowpack and precipitation from urban samples. Mean hydrogen ion concentrations ranged from 11 to 22 eq L-1 in the snowpack compared with 18 to 41 eq L-1 in event precipitation.     

塔里木南缘孤立绿洲近50年气候变化特征分析

通过分析塔里木盆地孤立绿洲民丰县气温、降水2个气象要素的相关资料得出，从20世纪50年代至90年代，气温呈上升趋势，而夏秋两季降水量随温度上升而上升。从气象要素的历史变化和季节分布特征看，塔里木盆地的孤立绿洲整体环境状况仍处于比较差的阶段。此分析结论对合理利用本地气候资源具有实际意义，并且能够为研究干旱区气候变化提供一定的帮助。     

The Precision of Precipitation Chemistry Measurements in the Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CAPMoN)

Precision estimates are presented for precipitation chemistry and depth measurements made by the Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CAPMoN). The estimates were made for daily measurements of ion concentration and precipitation depth as well as for weekly, 28-day, seasonal and annual precipitation-weighted mean concentrations and depths. The data on which the estimates are based were collected from collocated samplers at five CAPMoN sites during the period 1985 to 1993. The data pairs from the collocated samplers were used to calculate the between-instrument error defined as 1/2 times the difference between the paired sample concentrations (or depths). For all of the ion concentrations and depths, the between-sampler errors were found not to be normally distributed, but the normality of the distributions improved with the length of the (volume-weighting) time period considered. A set of quantitative measures of overall network precision were derived in absolute (mg L^-1) and relative (%) units. These included the Modified Median Absolute Deviation (M.MAD), the P90% probability values and the Coefficient of Variation (CoV). The latter, defined as the percent ratio of the M.MAD to the median concentration (or depth), represents the relative precision at the center of the error and concentration (and depth) distributions. Based on the CoV values, the relative precision of the CAPMoN measurements was very high (better than 4%) for SO ₄ ^2- , NO ₃ ^- , pH, H⁺, NH ₄ ⁺ , sample depth and standard gauge depth, and not as high (between 10 and <35%) for Cl^-, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, and K⁺. The ions with the lowest median concentrations had the poorest relative precision since so many of the concentrations were at or near the analytical detection limit. Except for the sample and standard gauge depths, both the absolute and relative precision improved with the length of the precipitation-weighting period. Detailed statistical testing established that the precision of the daily measurements is dependent on a number of factors, the most dominant being sample depth and concentration, i.e., the absolute precision improves with increasing sample depth and decreasing concentration. The strength of these relationships diminished with the length of the precipitation-weighting period being considered. Laboratory-related sources of imprecision were found to account for less than 4% of the overall daily measurement imprecision for most species, while field-related sources of imprecision accounted for the balance. Specialized plots are shown which allow data users to estimate the absolute and relative precision at any concentration and depth value.