基于灰色神经网络优化组合模型的火灾预测研究

为了提高火灾事故预测的精度,根据我国火灾事故数据样本较小,波动性较大的特点,将遗传算法优化的灰色无偏预测模型与遗传算法优化的BP神经网络模型结合起来,建立灰色神经网络优化组合模型,充分发挥无偏灰色预测模型适用于小样本的数据预测的优势与BP神经网络处理非线性问题的优点。分别采用遗传算法优化后的无偏灰色GM（1,1）模型、遗传算法优化的BP神经网络预测模型与灰色神经网络优化组合模型对我国1998-2008年的火灾事故进行拟合,并对2009-2011年的火灾事故发生数进行预测。结果表明:灰色神经网络优化组合模型的预测误差最小,精度最高,适用于火灾事故的预测。     

半干旱区人工封育草场植物群落物种多样性与复杂性研究──以宁夏盐池为例

围栏封育促进植被恢复效果研究方法很多,其中通过研究植被的群落特征及物种多样性来阐述恢复状况仍是比较常用和有效的手段,但多样性测度对生物群落的自组织及有序性方面的特征描述欠缺,鉴于此,多样性与复杂性测度结合起来研究群落结构与功能显得更有意义。研究人工封育对植被恢复过程中群落的多样性与复杂性的影响,必然有助于揭示生态恢复过程机理。目前,利用多样性与复杂性测度相结合来对群落结构进行量化研究不多,用于对草原生态系统植物群落结构研究更少。本文通过样地调查,利用多样性和复杂性指数相结合定量研究半干旱区人工封育草场植物群落物种多样性、复杂性随封育年限的变化规律,并对比分析复杂性与物种多样性之间的相关性。结果表明,（1）老封育区、新封育区丰富度指数整体高于对照区,说明封育有利于物种丰富度的增加。但随封育时间的延长,封育区的优势种占据主要的资源空间,丰富度指数降低。长时间封育,草场植被丰富度将发生规律性波动变化,低峰值和高峰值出现频率均约为4~5年/次。老封育区、新封育区的SW、SP多样性指数值大部分也高于对照区,说明封育措施增加草场植被的多样性。物种多样性指数受降水影响显著,当降水量增加或减少时,多样性指数也相应出现增加或减少,但降水影响效应具有一定的滞后性。老封育区、新封育区均匀度变化比较平稳,且指数值高于对照区,说明封育有利于均匀度的增加。（2）老封育区、新封育区总复杂性指数、无序结构复杂性指数值大部分比对照区指数值高,且指数波动相对平稳,说明封育区群落结构比对照区稳定,更适合荒漠草原植被的生长,封育增加了群落总复杂性、无序结构复杂性。封育也提高群落有序结构复杂性,但?     

Effects of bisphenol A on Gammarus fossarum and Lumbriculus variegatus in artificial indoor streams

The impact of bisphenol A (BPA) on Gammarus fossarum and Lumbriculus variegatus was studied in four artificial indoor streams (0, 5, 50 and 500?µg?L^?1 BPA, nominal) over 103 days in a pulse–dose exposure scenario (weekly BPA application). For G. fossarum populations at day 103, the proportions of juveniles and of breeding females from the highest BPA treatment were in tendency reduced. For individually exposed gammarid pairs an EC₁₀ of 17?µg?L^?1 BPA (nominal) for the proportion of reproductive females in the fourth brood was determined. During the first three broods, the largest brood size occurred at the highest BPA concentration, whereas in the fourth brood it decreased concentration-dependently (fourth brood EC₁₀?=?5?µg?L^?1 BPA, nominal). Effects on L. variegatus were a reduced population growth (103?d-EC₁₀ of 2?µg?L^?1 BPA, nominal) and an increase in dry weight and the number of segments in large, complete worms.     

The Brown Trout Population at Loch Fleet Eight Years After Liming

Abstract

At the start of the Loch Fleet Project in 1984, the Loch and the upper 7 km of its efferent stream were found to be devoid of trout (Salmo trutta) as a result of acidification. Following the liming treatments applied to the catchment, from 1986 the formerly toxic water quality conditions (pH ～ 4.5, calcium ～ 1 mgl^?1, elevated aluminium and heavy metal levels) were eliminated, and trout were reintroduced on two occasions, in 1987 and 1988. A total of 520 fish were stocked, at a combined density equivalent to 5.5 kg ha^?1. Surveys of the loch and stream populations were carried out annually until 1993 to monitor their development, using a range of techniques, including electrofishing, gill-netting, seine-netting, spawner trapping and mark-release recapture methods. Length and scale- analysis were used to investigate fish growth.

The trout population in Loch Fleet expanded rapidly as a result of natural spawning in the loch's main feeder stream, augmented by the use of an artificial spawning bed which was constructed at the loch outlet in 1990. in mid-1983 the stock density, estimated by mark-recapture census methods, had increased to 24.9 kg ha^?1. Poor recruitment in the years 1991–93, however, reduced the rate of expansion and resulted in a population comprising mainly older individuals. the poor recruitment in these years was not fully explained but was not caused by water quality and was most likely a result of fry washout by spring spates.

Fish growth rates were high initially and were estimated on the basis of the Elliott trout growth model to be optimal for the prevailing water temperature regime of the loch. By 1991, growth rates had fallen, probably as a result of competition for food, but showed signs of recovery towards the end of the study period in 1993, following the period of lower population densities of young fish.

Trout rapidly repopulated the loch's outlet stream after 1987 but have remained sparse and have shown no signs of spawning within most of the stream. Water analyses have shown that the liming of the Loch Fleet catchment has minimal impact on downstream waters when flows are high, so that potentially toxic acid episodes have not been prevented.     

Behaviour of Dioxins,Furans and Metals Associated with Stabilized Msw Combustor Ash in Sea Water

This report presents the results of a research programme designed to examine the engineering and environmental acceptability of stabilizing municipal solid waste (MSW) combustor ash for artificial reef construction. Municipal solid waste combustor ash was combined with Portland cement to form solid blocks using conventional construction block making technology. the resultant stabilized combustor ash (SCA) blocks were used to construct an artificial habitat in Conscience Bay, Long Island Sound, New York and compared to identical concrete blocks, fabricated using natural aggregates. Over a 4.5 year period divers periodically returned to the site to monitor the interaction of SCA blocks with the marine environment and compare the performance of these blocks with the concrete control blocks. Results show that the SCA blocks retain their strength after prolonged sea water exposure. Contaminants of environmental concern, including metals, dioxins and furans, were retained within the cementitious matrix of the SCA blocks after prolonged sea water submersion. in addition, organisms growing on the surfaces of the SCA blocks did not accumulate contaminants from the blocks.     

人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响研究进展

人类活动对流域旱涝事件具有决定性影响,已经成为国内外热点研究问题之一。通过系统分析国内外人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响机理的研究,结果表明:人类活动导致大气温室气体和气溶胶含量上升,全球气候变化加剧,导致流域极端水文过程时空格局改变。另一方面,人类活动引起的土地退化将影响流域水资源时空分布和水循环过程,削弱流域防洪抗旱能力;水利工程的修建将增大流域储水状况,有效应对流域旱涝事件,但同时存在加剧流域旱涝事件的风险。此外,论文还概述了人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响的量化方法。     

广州市园林绿化植物苗木对二氧化硫和二氧化氮吸收能力分析

采用人工模拟熏气法,研究了36种广州市园林绿化植物对SO2和NO2气体吸收净化能力,以系统聚类分析方法为依据,将参试植物的吸收净化能力划分为强性、较强、中等、较弱及弱5个等级。结果显示,在不同SO2质量浓度（0.259和0.448 mg.m-3）环境下,黄槐、鸡冠刺桐、红花银桦、木棉、红千层、大花紫薇、复羽叶栾树吸收SO2能力具有强或较强的能力,而罗汉松、竹柏、深山含笑、乐昌含笑、观光木、樟树、阴香、双翼豆、印度紫檀、大花五桠果、长芒杜英、五月茶、海南蒲桃、芒果、海南红豆、糖胶树和幌伞枫吸收SO2能力表现为较弱或弱;在NO2质量浓度（0.149和0.428 mg.m-3）环境下,黄槐、黄葛榕、红花银桦、红千层、麻楝、复羽叶栾树、大花紫薇和小叶榄仁吸收净化NO2能力为较强或强,而深山含笑、五月茶、芒果、海南红豆、糖胶树和桂花叶片对NO2吸收能力表现为较弱或弱。在不同SO2和NO2浓度环境下,黄槐、红花银桦、红千层、复羽叶栾树和大花紫薇叶片对SO2和NO2吸收净化能力表现为强或较强,而深山含笑、五月茶、芒果、海南红豆、糖胶树叶片对SO2和NO2吸收净化能力为较弱或弱。研究结果为珠三角城市功能型园林植物选择和广东生态景观林带建设提供科学依据。     

旱区经营人工植被对土壤干化过程的调控

人工植被在北方旱区具有重要的意义,但在干旱少雨的条件下开展建设,必须讲求水分平衡。基于此,作者通过考察长期的经营实践,从土壤水分角度讨论人工植被与环境之间的耦合匹配问题。阐述了普遍发生的人工植被作用下的土壤干化对植被自身的不利影响以及其可调控性,并进一步对调控途径和措施进行了分析。表明人为采取措施可以将土壤干化现象加以调节和控制,如局部带状或团块状种植、疏伐、轮作、休闲、灌溉等。在贯彻适地适种原则的基础上,还需选择耗水量少的抗旱节水植物和可维持土壤水库水平的密度或盖度,这是保证人工植被稳定持久值得重视的又一重要方面。预防土壤干化是首要的,需多途径相互结合进行调控。对土壤干化过程的调控实际上就是有效经营人工植被。需要结合经营目标评定人工植被的稳定性。     

基于人工神经网络法的绿色建筑评价

以实际建筑物为例,介绍了用层次分析法建立绿色建筑评价模型的过程,并分别用层次分析法和人工神经网络法对实际建筑物进行了评价。评价结果显示,人工神经网络法与层次分析法相对误差不到0.5%,表明人工神经网络法作为一种客观科学的评价方法,应用于绿色建筑的评价,能有效降低主观因素带来的影响,会使结果更具有客观性。     

Integrated Estimation of the Effect of Physical Factors on Human Functional State During Mental Work

The purpose of this study was to develop a model for an integrated estimation of the functional state of the human organism (FSHO) and an integral estimation of physical factors (PF) for hygienic rating. Tests were performed twice with 3 men in 0.7-clo clothing during 4-hr mental work with 9 combinations of 4 PF: wideband noise (55–83 dB(A)), whole-body vibration (6 Hz, a_z = 0.2–1.8 ms^?2), air temperature (18–30 °C), and illumination (1, 3, 5 lx). Thermoregulatory, cardiovascular, and psychophysiological reactions and temporary threshold of hearing (TTS₂) shifts were studied. For the integral estimation of PF influence on FSHO the model F(y₁, y₂, ... y_m) = f(x₁, x₂, ... x_n) was used, relating both FSHO and PF sets. The most important physiological parameters in creating FSHO are defined and the contribution of individual parameters of FSHO and PF is found.