CDM Forestry and the Ultimate Objective of the Climate Convention

In its Article 2, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change policymakers gave themselves a long-term dynamic mandate under uncertainty. Taking the example of forestry activities in developing countries, the present article discusses whether land-based climate change mitigation measures in the context of compensation mechanisms for human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are covered under the UNFCCC's ultimate objective. Both the problem of climate change and human intervention act over long, yet finite timeframes. The article argues for taking a dynamic 100-year timeframe as reference for present-day activities. It concludes that increasing biotic carbon storage is legitimate for measures that contribute to biodiversity conservation, as long as it does not serve as a pretext for neglecting technological change. Among all forestry options, the list of priorities should be avoiding deforestation and devegetation, sustainable forest management, and afforestation. The problem of saturation can be encountered by the combination of forestry with the increased use of wood products and bioenergy. Concluding, the article gathers criteria for forest climate activities in the post-2012 regime. JEL Classification: Q23, Q54; Q57; Q58     

用油品的物理特性鉴别海面的溢油源

建立了用油品的物理特性鉴别海面溢油源的分析方法。主要对海面溢油风化过程中溢油的运动粘度和折射率的变化进行了探讨。结果表明 ,在所给出的多个油种的风化过程中 ,油种间的运动粘度变化存在着明显的差异。随着风化时间的延长 ,原油的运动粘度随着风化时间的延长而显著增加 ,重质燃料油虽略有递增却很不明显 ;轻质燃料油和润滑油的运动粘度均在缓慢地增加。润滑油和燃料油的折射率无明显的变化。运动粘度法鉴别溢油的准确度较高 ,其准确率可达 10 0 %。     

农田土壤中的磷向水体释放的风险评价

通过对比土壤的固磷能力和磷素水平可以评估不同类型土壤中的磷向水体释放的风险。研究表明，磷吸持指数（SI）可以作为土壤最大吸磷量的替代指标来表征土壤的固磷能力。在太湖地区，影响水土界面磷素迁移能力的主要因素是土壤有效磷水平和土壤固磷能力。SI值30左右为一临界值，SI大于此值的土壤对于施磷具有较大的缓冲能力，而SI低于此值的土壤对施磷非常敏感，磷流失风险将随施磷量的增加而呈直线上升趋势。     

多环芳烃的零阶价分子连接性指数与正-辛醇/水分配系数

本文建立了准确预测多环芳烃(PAHs)及其烷基衍生物的正-辛醇/水分配系数(Kow)模型。模型表明PAHs的分配性质可用零阶价分子连接性指数(~°x~v)描述,~°x~v数值与PAHs的logKow成正比。应用本模型可以预测大范围PAHs的logKow值。     

农药污染环境质量评价

本文根据计算排毒系数的方法确定了主要污染源和污染物,又根据食入、饮进、呼吸等量建立了权重系统,由此而计算了中国不同农业区域的污染指数。结果表明,重污染区集中在长江、黄河流域的粮、棉产区,而且我国农业环境中BHC、DDT污染程度是向南或向北逐渐减弱。     

Progress in developing an ANN model for air pollution index forecast

An air pollution index (API) reporting system is introduced to selected cities of China for public communication on air quality data. Shanghai is the first city in China providing daily average API reports and forecasts. This paper describes the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) model for the API forecasting in Shanghai. It is a multiple layer perceptron (MLP) network, with meteorological forecasting data as the main input, to output the next day average API values. However, the initial version of the MLP model did not work well. To improve the model, a series of tests were conducted with respect to the training method and structure optimization. Based on the test results, the training algorithm was modified and a new model was built. The new model is now being used in Shanghai for API forecasting. Its performance is shown reasonably well in comparison with observation. The application of the old model was only weakly correlated with observation. In 1-year application, the correlation coefficients were 0.2314, 0.1022 and 0.1710 for TSP, SO₂ and NO_x, respectively. But for the new model, for over 8 months application, the correlation coefficients are raised to 0.6056, 0.6993 and 0.6300 for PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂. Further, the new algorithm does not rely on manpower intervention so that it is now being applied in several other Chinese cities with quite different meteorological conditions. The structure of the model and the application results are presented in this paper and also the problems to be further studied.     

煤气发生站洗冷废水治理研究

研究了以活性炭作为吸附剂处理煤气发生站废水工艺，并摸索出一整套的工艺参数。实验结果表明，采用活性炭吸附工艺使出水水质得到明显改观，硫化物、氰化物和挥发酚的去除效率均达９０％以上，对ＣＯＤｃｒ、氨氮的去除也收到了明显的效果。     

天津地区污染天气分析中垂直扩散指标构建及运用

基于255 m气象塔风、温和PM_(2.5)质量浓度数据获取天津地区大气稳定度特征,利用中尺度大气化学模式构建垂直扩散指数β和φ,开展天津地区污染天气预报中垂直扩散分析方法的研究,以期提高天津地区重污染天气预报预警准确率.结果表明,综合运用大气稳定度、基于边界层平均PM_(2.5)质量浓度与近地面PM_(2.5)质量浓度比值构建的垂直扩散指数β,基于数值模式chemdiag功能(以CO为示踪物)构建的垂直扩散指数φ,可以在污染天气预报中较好的进行大气污染物垂直扩散能力分析.当07:00~08:00和18:00~20:00大气稳定度为D及以上时,相比大气稳定为C及以下时,出现重污染天气的概率成10倍的增加;使用垂直扩散指数β和风速双重指标判断重污染天气,比单一的风速指标判断准确率提升67%;垂直扩散指数φ与近地面PM_(2.5)质量浓度相关系数达到0.8,当垂直扩散指数φ小于0.52时,重污染天气概率75%,可识别59%的重污染天气.     

浑河流域底质类型对硅藻群落分布特征的影响

河流底质可以为硅藻提供附着的基质,不同的底质类型对硅藻群落结构有一定的影响.本研究对浑河流域上23个采样点位进行调查研究,并运用多响应置换过程、典范对应性分析、线性回归分析等,分析河流底质类型对硅藻群落的影响.多响应置换过程结果显示,苏子河、红河和英额河、浑河中游及浑河下游水系之间硅藻群落空间差异显著;香农多样性指数、均匀度指数与物种丰富度的平均值分别为2.57、0.69和15;典范对应性分析结果显示,IOS指数、电导率、总氮和总磷是显著影响硅藻群落结构的环境因子;相关分析结果显示,香农多样性指数、均匀度指数和物种丰富度与IOS指数呈正相关.本研究中,河流底质类型为大石块、鹅卵石等类型时,硅藻多样性较高;而底质类型为淤泥和细沙时,硅藻多样性较低.