淮河流域致洪暴雨特征及预警指标分析

本文通过对1950～2000年的个例分析,总结了淮河流域致洪暴雨的天气学特征和判别指标;根据区域降水量与王家坝站的水位分析,确定了淮河流域致洪暴雨的预警指标.     

基于模糊网络分析的民航机务安全评价

机务维修是保障航空器安全运行的重要工作.针对现行航空公司机务维修系统的安全评估方法不完备性问题,通过对机务工作业务模块的分析,结合天津某航空公司机务维修部门近7年来的不安全事件统计,从人-机-环-管四个方面筛选并建立了19个评价指标,运用ANP(analysis net process)方法结合三角模糊函数对机务系统的安全水平进行定量分析,得出影响机务维修安全的前8位指标——检查监督,维修态度,操作技能,文化建设、价值观,硬件软件技术,性能标准,人际关系.最终提出相关的可行性建议.     

兰州市郊红砂种群数量动态与分布格局

对兰州市南北两山天然分布的红砂种群数量动态和空间分布格局进行研究。利用地径回归得到红砂种群年龄结构,编制静态生命表,进行生存分析及谱分析,计算红砂种群年龄结构动态指数,以揭示种群数量动态特征;采用扩散系数、负二项指数、平均拥挤度、聚块性指数、扩散型指数、丛生指数、Cassie指数和Green指数8个分布指标判断红砂种群时空尺度上的格局类型。结果表明,南北两山红砂种群密度、盖度适宜,动态指数均大于0,呈现增长型,并存在明显的周期性;种群以中幼龄植株为主体,各龄级的死亡率基本平稳,但在第Ⅱ过渡到第Ⅲ龄级时,出现死亡高峰,存活曲线趋于Deevey-Ⅲ型。种群时空异质性明显,阳坡的红砂种群呈现聚集分布,阴坡则多呈现均匀分布;不同发育阶段红砂种群分布格局呈现明显递变规律,幼龄阶段聚集度高,随着年龄增大,聚集性大幅减弱。     

松花江沉积物汞的新变化:分布、演化与现状及潜在生态风险评估

分析了第二松花江中下游和松花江干流表层沉积物中总汞的含量水平和分布规律,同期采集了牡丹江、黑龙江沉积物作为对照,并采用地累积指数法以及潜在生态风险指数法,初步评价了松花江沉积物中汞的污染状况和潜在的生态风险.结果表明,松花江10个断面沉积物总汞含量范围0.029~1.317 mg·kg~(-1),均值0.183 mg·kg~(-1).第二松花江3个典型断面沉积物总汞含量均显著高于松花江干流的7个典型断面(P0.05).地累积指数(Igeo)及潜在生态风险指数(Er)表明第二松花江3个典型断面沉积物汞污染程度为偏中度至重度污染,存在高度生态风险;松花江干流7个典型断面为轻度污染,具有较高生态风险.近10年松花江沉积物汞含量变化及空间分布结果显示,现阶段第二松花江沉积物汞含量有所下降,但松花江干流个别江段沉积物汞含量有所上升,应引起重视.     

Assessment of deep aquifer groundwater quality in a geographically unique climatic region of Southern Western Ghats,India using water quality indices

Water quality index (WQI) models are generally used in hydrochemical studies to simplify complex data into single values to reflect the overall quality. In this study, deep groundwater quality in the Chittur and Palakkad Taluks of the Bharathapuzha river basin of Kerala, India, was assessed by employing the WQI method developed by the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME). The assessment of overall water quality is indispensable due to the specific characteristics of the study area, such as geography, climate, over-drafting, and prevalent agricultural practices. Forty representative samples were collected from the study area for monsoon (MON) and pre-monsoon (PRM) seasons. The results showed a general increase of contents from MON to PRM. The major cations were spread in the order Ca²⁺>Na+>Mg²⁺>K⁺ and the anions HCO₃⁻>Cl⁻>CO₃²⁻ based on their relative abundance. Among various parameters analysed, alkalinity and bicarbonate levels during MON were comparatively high, which is indicative of carbonate weathering, and 90% of the samples failed to meet the World Health Organization (WHO, 2017)/Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS, 2012) drinking water guidelines. The CCME WQI analysis revealed that nearly 50% of the samples during each season represented good and excellent categories. The samples in the poor category comprised 10% in MON and 15% in PRM. The overall WQI exhibited 15% of poor category samples as well. The spatial depiction of CCME WQI classes helped to expose zones of degraded quality in the centre to eastward parts. The spatial and temporal variations of CCME WQI classes and different physicochemical attributes indicated the influence of common factors attributing to the deep groundwater quality. The study also revealed inland salinity at Kolluparamba and Peruvamba stations, where agricultural activities were rampant with poor surface water irrigation.     

Five-wheel framework for system-based monitoring of heavy metal pollution in rivers

Sectorial approach for monitoring heavy metal pollution in rivers has failed to report realistic pollution status and associated ecological and human health risks. The increasing spread of heavy metals from different sources and emerging risks to human and environmental health call for reexamining heavy metal pollution monitoring frameworks. Also, the sources, spread, and load of heavy metals in the environment have changed significantly over time, requiring consequent modification in the monitoring frameworks. Therefore, studies on heavy metal monitoring in rivers conducted in the last decade were evaluated for experimental designs, research frameworks, and data presentations. Most studies (∼99%) (i) lacked inclusiveness of all environmental compartments; (ii) focused on “one pollutant – one/two compartment” or sometimes “one pollutant – one compartment – one effect” approach; and (iii) remained “data-rich but information poor.” An ecological approach with integrative system thinking is proposed to develop a holistic approach for monitoring river pollution. It is visualized that heavy metal monitoring, risk analyses, and water management must incorporate tracking pollutants in different environmental compartments of a river (water, sediment, and floodplain/bank soil) and consider correlating it with riverbank land use. The systems-based pollution monitoring and assessment studies will reveal the critical factors that drive heavy metals pollutant movement in ecosystems and associated potential risks to the environment, wildlife, and humans. Also, water quality and pollution indexing tools would help better communicate complex pollution data and associated risks among all stakeholders. Therefore, integrating systems approaches in scientific- and policy-based tools would help sustainably manage the health of rivers, wildlife, and humans.     

京津冀地区城市三生空间碳代谢效率特征及演进模式

探究城市三生空间系统的碳代谢效率有助于实现区域要素整合和空间优化.基于城市代谢视角,采用物质流分析法构建了京津冀地区三生空间碳代谢效率评估框架,并运用超效率DEA模型和Malmquist指数分析了2000~2020年三生空间碳代谢效率的时空分布、动态变化及演进模式.结果表明：①2000~2020年,京津冀地区三生空间碳代谢效率呈波动增长趋势,各城市碳代谢效率空间分异明显,碳代谢效率水平整体偏低,呈中部高、南北低的分布格局.②京津冀地区碳代谢效率全要素生产率呈增加趋势,技术进步变化和纯技术效率贡献作用不显著.超过50%的城市全要素生产率呈改善趋势,仅有38.46%的城市在碳代谢效率改善过程中存在技术进步现象,超过1/2地区的纯技术效率呈下降趋势,大部分城市的技术效率和规模效率变化指数大于1.③各城市碳代谢效率呈现不同的类型特征,按照其发展路径划为稳定式、反复式、渐进式和突变式这4种演进模式.各城市应据此采取差异化措施,合理配置三生空间资源,提高技术水平和规模效率,以期提高城市碳代谢效率水平.     

绥化市城市生态系统健康状况研究

针对当前城市生态系统健康问题,从自然、经济、社会三个子系统出发,运用数学模型对绥化市城市生态系统的健康水平进行了评价。结果表明,2000年-2004年绥化市生态系统综合健康处于亚健康状态,但有逐年好转的趋势。其中自然子系统的健康水平最好,对综合健康指数贡献值最大,经济和社会子系统健康水平相对较低,对综合健康指数的贡献值相对较小。提高经济和社会子系统的健康水平,使经济、社会和自然三大子系统健康协调发展是提高绥化市城市生态系统健康水平的关键。     

青岛市城市资源、基础设施与其经济社会协调发展的定量评价和分析

在分析青岛市城市资源、基础设施条件与其经济社会发展之间关系的基础上．构建了多层次评价指标体系，对城市资源和基础设施这两大因素与青岛市经济社会发展的协调关系进行定量评价。结果表明,2001—2004年期间，青岛市城市盗源、基础设施与其经济社会各年度的协调发展度均大于0．8。其中,经济社会发展水平呈现持续增长的势头，而城市资源和基础设施的发展水平则呈现出波浪型态势。说明后者的发展尚不够稳定；另外．除了2002年城市资源与基础设施的发展超前于经济社会发展水平外。其余年份都是滞后的。今后要进一步加大对青岛市城市资源与基础设旌开发和建设的力度，以满足城市协调可持续发展的要求。     

A strategy for the next decade to address data deficiency in neglected biodiversity

Measuring progress toward international biodiversity targets requires robust information on the conservation status of species, which the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species provides. However, data and capacity are lacking for most hyperdiverse groups, such as invertebrates, plants, and fungi, particularly in megadiverse or high-endemism regions. Conservation policies and biodiversity strategies aimed at halting biodiversity loss by 2020 need to be adapted to tackle these information shortfalls after 2020. We devised an 8-point strategy to close existing data gaps by reviving explorative field research on the distribution, abundance, and ecology of species; linking taxonomic research more closely with conservation; improving global biodiversity databases by making the submission of spatially explicit data mandatory for scientific publications; developing a global spatial database on threats to biodiversity to facilitate IUCN Red List assessments; automating preassessments by integrating distribution data and spatial threat data; building capacity in taxonomy, ecology, and biodiversity monitoring in countries with high species richness or endemism; creating species monitoring programs for lesser-known taxa; and developing sufficient funding mechanisms to reduce reliance on voluntary efforts. Implementing these strategies in the post-2020 biodiversity framework will help to overcome the lack of capacity and data regarding the conservation status of biodiversity. This will require a collaborative effort among scientists, policy makers, and conservation practitioners.