Procrastinating reform: The impact of the market stability reserve on the EU ETS

We study the impact of the market stability reserve (MSR) on price and emission paths of the EU ETS. From 2019 onwards, the MSR will adjust the number of allowances auctioned as a function of the size of the surplus, i.e. in times of a large surplus it shifts the issue date of allowances into the future. In a perfectly competitive allowance market the MSR only affects price and emission paths if the baseline equilibrium becomes unfeasible. If the MSR is binding, prices increase in the short run but drop in the medium run relative to the baseline. The MSR increases price variability if uncertainty over future allowance demand is resolved while there is a surplus. The long run cap is unaffected by both the MSR and overlapping climate policies. This contrasts the EU׳s objectives of improving the resilience of the EU ETS and increasing synergies with overlapping climate policies.     

意大利东北部滨海湿地演变及其影响因素监测分析

意大利东北部海岸分布着独特的滨海湿地景观,在地中海区域具有极其重要的生态价值.该研究主要利用遥感影像监测1984—2016年滨海湿地演变,覆盖该区域所有的国际重要湿地保护区,并在此基础上定量分析滨海湿地演变的影响因素,深化对滨海湿地演变规律的认识,为今后制定与实施滨海湿地保护政策提供科学依据.研究结果显示,(1)滨海湿...     

Building a Regionally Connected Reserve Network in a Changing and Uncertain World

Abstract: Habitat connectivity is required at large spatial scales to facilitate movement of biota in response to climatic changes and to maintain viable populations of wide‐ranging species. Nevertheless, it may require decades to acquire habitat linkages at such scales, and areas that could provide linkages are often developed before they can be reserved. Reserve scheduling methods usually consider only current threats, but threats change over time as development spreads and reaches presently secure areas. We investigated the importance of considering future threats when implementing projects to maintain habitat connectivity at a regional scale. To do so, we compared forward‐looking scheduling strategies with strategies that consider only current threats. The strategies were applied to a Costa Rican case study, where many reserves face imminent isolation and other reserves will probably become isolated in the more distant future. We evaluated strategies in terms of two landscape‐scale connectivity metrics, a pure connectivity metric and a metric of connected habitat diversity. Those strategies that considered only current threats were unreliable because they often failed to complete planned habitat linkage projects. The most reliable and effective strategies considered the future spread of development and its impact on the likelihood of completing planned habitat linkage projects. Our analyses highlight the critical need to consider future threats when building connected reserve networks over time.     

Influence of Representation Targets on the Total Area of Conservation-Area Networks

Abstract:  Systematic conservation planning typically requires specification of quantitative representation targets for biodiversity surrogates such as species, vegetation types, and environmental parameters. Targets are usually specified either as the minimum total area in a conservation-area network in which a surrogate must be present or as the proportion of a surrogate's existing spatial distribution required to be in the network. Because the biological basis for setting targets is often unclear, a better understanding of how targets affect selection of conservation areas is needed. We studied how the total area of conservation-area networks depends on percentage targets ranging from 5% to 95%. We analyzed 12 data sets of different surrogate distributions from 5 regions: Korea, Mexico, Québec, Queensland, and West Virginia. To assess the effect of spatial resolution on the target-area relationship, we also analyzed each data set at 7 spatial resolutions ranging from 0.01°× 0.01° to 0.10°× 0.10°. Most of the data sets showed a linear relationship between representation targets and total area of conservation-area networks that was invariant across changes in spatial resolution. The slope of this relationship indicated how total area increased with target level, and our results suggest that greater surrogate representation requires significantly more area. One data set exhibited a highly nonlinear relationship. The results for this data set suggest a new method for setting targets on the basis of the functional form of target-area relationships. In particular, the method shows how the target-area relationship can provide a rationale for setting targets solely on the basis of distributional information about surrogates.     

A Decision Framework for the Adaptive Management of an Exploited Species with Implications for Marine Reserves

Abstract:  Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate ( λ ) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate λ based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the λ declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive λ value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of λ increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.     

江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区资源开发的阈值管理

通过分析主要保护对象丹顶鹤的越冬需求和资源开发活动对丹顶鹤及其生境的干扰,提出了针对保护区资源开发的阈值管理技术.设置允许适度开发、限制开发和禁止开发3种准入类型;准入区域限定在实验区内,面积应小于保护区总面积的1/10,且不大于实验区面积的1/3;准入时间上,根据丹顶鹤的越冬需求,确定每年9月末至次年2月末为限制利用期,3月初至次年9月末为适度利用期;停止新的滩涂围垦和风力发电项目建设,大力发展生态旅游.     

广西金钟山自然保护区鱼类资源考察报告

2004年11月14日至12月17日，在广西金钟山自然保护区内水域中共获淡水鱼类样品110余号，结合以往的调查资料。初步确定保护区淡水鱼类共有52种，分别隶属于4目13科1．45属．通过对保护区鱼类资源的实地考察，从生态区系的角度叙述了保护区野生鱼类资源的区系概况和分布特点，并对保护区鱼类资源的管理和合理利用提出了建议。     

我国自然保护区有效管理现状及其分析

本文在对我国１０多个省（自治区）２ｏ多个自然保护区的实际调查和全国资料的统计分析基础上，从我国自然保护区的管理体制、管理机构建设、资源的保护与适度开发利用、科学研究与宣传教育等方面，全面分析了我国自然保护区有效管理的现状，总结了取得的成绩和存在的问题，并针对存在的主要问题，提出了相应的对策与建议。