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71.
    
● A novel framework integrating quantile regression with machine learning is proposed. ● It aims to identify factors driving observations to upper boundary of relationship. ● Increasing N:P and TN concentration help fulfill the effect of TP on CHL. ● Wetter and warmer decrease potential and increase eutrophication control difficulty. ● The framework advances applications of quantile regression and machine learning. The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships, and can help inform ecosystem management, but has rarely been explored. In this study, we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning. In the first stage of the framework, we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression. Next, we calculate “potentials” of the response variable depending on the driver, which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot. Finally, we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model. We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus (TP)-Chlorophyll a (CHL) relationship in lakes across the continental US. We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (N׃P), annual average precipitation, total nitrogen (TN), and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP. We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management. The important role of N׃P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria. Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management. The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.  相似文献   
72.
为研究大气污染物在近地层内的垂直分布规律,2009年2月10-25日利用被动采样器在北京325 m气象铁塔10个高度(8、15、47、80、120、160、200、240、280、320 m)对SO2、NO2、O3、NH3和苯系物(苯benzene、甲苯toluene、乙苯ethylbenzene和二甲苯xylene)共8种大气污染物浓度进行了同步观测.结果表明,北京城区冬季污染物浓度具有明显的垂直变化特征,污染物浓度从近地面开始逐渐上升,在80-160 m以内的某一高度到达峰值后逐渐下降;200-300 m范围内,大气污染物浓度的垂直变化幅度相对较小,浓度值与地面接近;200 m以下各种污染物浓度的变化比较剧烈,浓度极大值出现的高度有所不同,O3、SO2和NH3极大值位于160 m,苯和NO2极大值出现在120 m,甲苯、乙苯和二甲苯极大值在80 m处.污染物在不同高度富集可能与污染源排放高度、城市冠层的热动力作用和气象因素有关,区分这些因素的各自贡献尚需进一步研究.  相似文献   
73.
Two computational methods were applied to classification of movement patterns of zebrafish (Danio rerio) to elucidate Markov processes in behavioral changes before and after treatment of formaldehyde (0.1 mg/L) in semi-natural conditions. The complex data of the movement tracks were initially classified by the Self-organizing map (SOM) to present different behavioral states of test individuals. Transition probabilities between behavioral states were further evaluated to fit Markov processes by using the hidden Markov model (HMM). Emission transition probability was also obtained from the observed variables (i.e., speed) for training with the HMM. Experimental transition and emission probability matrices were successfully estimated with the HMM for recognizing sequences of behavioral states with accuracy rates in acceptable ranges at central and boundary zones before (77.3-81.2%) and after (70.1-76.5%) treatment. A heuristic algorithm and a Markov model were efficiently combined to analyze movement patterns and could be a means of in situ behavioral monitoring tool.  相似文献   
74.
沈阳地区霾的环境特征研究   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
利用沈阳市1961—2009年的气象资料,分析了霾天气出现的年季特征及其天气形势特征。利用边界层气象资料与污染物质量浓度资料对特定的霾过程从边界层到污染物质量浓度条件进行了分析。结果表明:沈阳地区霾的出现呈现逐年上升的趋势,近5 a平均每年为120 d左右,目前霾天数已经占到了全年的30%~40%。冬秋季节出现霾天气较多,秋冬两季霾日数占全年霾日总数的75%。凌晨到上午是霾出现的高发期,02—08时霾出现频率占总霾数的44.5%。霾的出现主要发生在冬秋季节冷空气势力不强,大气扩散能力较弱,边界层出现逆温时刻。接地逆温层厚度常常稳定在200~300 m高度左右,PM10质量浓度与能见度(霾)呈负相关,相关系数-0.402 7。风速与能见度(霾)呈正相关,相关系数为0.886 4。  相似文献   
75.
    
This study represents the first quantitative evaluation of pollution transport budget within the boundary layer of typical cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region from the perspective of horizontal and vertical exchanges and further discusses the impact of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL)-free troposphere (FT) exchange on concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) within the ABL during heavy pollution. From the perspective of the transport flux balance relationship, differences in pollution transport characteristics between the two cities is mainly reflected in the ABL-FT exchange effect. The FT mainly flowed into the ABL in BJ, while in SJZ, the outflow from the ABL to the FT was more intense. Combined with an analysis of vertical wind profile distribution, BJ was found to be more susceptible to the influence of northwest cold high prevailing in winter, while sinking of strong cold air allowed the FT flowing into the ABL influence the vertical exchange over BJ. In addition, we selected a typical pollution event for targeted analysis to understand mechanistic details of the influence of ABL-FT exchange on the pollution event. These results showed that ABL-FT interaction played an important role in PM2.5 concentration within the ABL during heavy pollution. Especially in the early stage of heavy pollution, FT transport contributed as much as 82.74% of PM2.5 within the ABL. These findings are significant for improving our understanding of pollution transport characteristics within the boundary layer and the effect of ABL-FT exchange on air quality.  相似文献   
76.
侧向径流边界的刻画方法是地下水数值模拟中的关键问题。以湖北碾盘山汉江水利水电枢纽工程为例,基于有限单元法和嵌套模型的水量转换方法,分别建立包括完整水文地质单元的区域模型和仅包含汉水Ⅰ级阶地的平原区模型;通过区域模型的分区水均衡运算,计算平原区侧向径流边界的径流量,并以区域模型水均衡为框架,分别采用二类流量边界和一类水头边界刻画侧向径流边界,建立了平原区模型;深入分析区域模型和平原区模型间参数和水量的转换关系,并对比了两类边界条件刻画方法的优缺点和适用条件。结果表明:采用嵌套模型能够得到较为准确的地下水侧向径流量;在平原区模型中采用二类流量边界刻画侧向径流边界有利于提高平原区模型的精度和稳定性;边界条件除具有双重含义外还具有双重特征,在模型建立过程中应充分认识边界条件的位置特征和数量特征,并合理概化。  相似文献   
77.
气象激光雷达的城市边界层探测   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5       下载免费PDF全文
为了研究城市边界层结构变化特征,2005年7月利用气象激光雷达在南京城区做了城市边界层探测试验,就此次观测试验作了简要叙述并选取部分观测资料为示例,着重对气象激光雷达确定城市边界层高度垂直分布及逐时变化以及地面气象环境对边界层的日变化影响进行了初步分析.结果表明,主要由近地层对流混合形成的城市边界层高度具有典型的日变化特点,早晚比较低,日间有一个从低到高再到低的变化过程.提出了一种由边界层混合状态确定边界层高度的方法.分析结果表明,由气溶胶消光系数确定城市边界层高度比较准确.将MSL探测结果与同步的低空无线电探测仪的温度探测结果进行比较,结果表明,两者获得的实际廓线分布相当吻合,线性良好.就地表温度、辐射、湿度及云等气象要素对边界层垂直分布及时间变化的影响做了分析.结果表明,这些气象要素的分布对城市边界层高度的垂直分布及其逐时变化有明显影响.  相似文献   
78.
黑龙江省大气边界层不同高度风速变化   总被引:2,自引:10,他引:2  
利用黑龙江省1961—2010 年哈尔滨、嫩江、齐齐哈尔、伊春4 个气象站探空和地面风速资料,分析了边界层内不同高度风速的气候学特征和时间变化趋势,获得以下结论:①黑龙江省边界层内不同高度年平均风速随高度增加而增大,10 m到300 m风速垂直递增率最大;风速在年内具有明显的季节性特征,各高度都是春季最大,近地面层冬季风速最小,其余高度夏季风速最小。②1961—2010 年,近地面10 m高度平均风速1970 年代最大,其后各年代风速逐渐减小,2000 年代风速最小;300、600、900 m高度,平均风速1980 年代最大,从1980 年代到2000 年代逐渐减小,300 m高度平均风速最小出现在1960 年代,600 m和900m最小出现在1970 年代。③1961—2010 年,近地面10 m高度平均风速呈明显减弱趋势,递减率为0.162 m/(s·10 a),递减趋势主要发生在1970 年代以后,但300、600 和900 m高度平均风速变化均不显著。④黑龙江省近地面风速变化趋势可能主要与观测环境改变和城市化等非自然因素影响有关,上层的风速变化则主要受大尺度大气环流变化的影响。  相似文献   
79.
黄河中上游能源化工区大气污染跨界环境影响分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
对黄河中上游能源化工区近地面和边界层顶气象流场及该区域大气污染长距离输送产生的跨界环境影响趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明,该区域近地面和边界层顶的流场总体上为西北向东南流动,大气污染物长距离输送可能影响的区域主要为华中地区;区域冷空气的活动对其大气污染物的清除起重要作用;通过CALPUFF模型的模拟结果表明,该区域SO2的影响程度和范围明显大于NO2,在区域内部存在污染物浓度较高的区域,但未对区外造成显著跨界环境影响。  相似文献   
80.
Hourly concentrations of TSP, PM(10), PM(2.5) near the surface at Seoul city were examined from March 20 to March 25, 2001 (duststorm event) in order to investigate the effect of a duststorm generated in China on the local aerosol concentration in Korea, The ratios of fine to coarse particles such as TSP to PM(10), TSP to PM(2.5) and PM(10)-PM(2.5) to PM(2.5) showed that a great amount of dust transported from the origin of the duststorm was remarkable with a maximum ratio of 9.77 between TSP and PM(2.5). Back trajectories every 6 h showed the movement of dust particles in the lower atmosphere near 500 m to 1500 m (atmospheric boundary layer), which implied transport from Baotou in inner Mongolia of northern China to the direction of Seoul city in Korea and then the back trajectories passed near the southern border of Mongolia and Baotou through Zengzhou in the midlevels (3000 m) and low levels (500 m) of China, finally reaching Seoul city. So, the TSP concentration at Seoul city was partially influenced by the duststorm, under the prevailing westerly wind and the transported aerosols could influence high concentrations of pollutants of TSP, PM(10) and PM(2.5) in Seoul. The sudden high concentrations of TSP and PM(10) were found for a few hours, especially at 1500 to 1800 LST, March 22. At 1200 LST, before the passage of a cold front through the Korean peninsula, the convective boundary layer (CBL) near Seoul was not shallow, but at 1500 LST, under the frontal passage, the CBL was remarkably thinner (less than 300 m), due to the compression of the boundary layer by the intrusion of cold air. This resulted in the increase of the TSP concentration, even though the mixed layer above maintained almost the same depth. At 1800 LST shortly after the frontal passage, that is, near sunset, the nocturnal cooling of the ground caused air parcels to cool, thereby enhancing the shallower nocturnal surface inversion layer and producing the maximum concentration of TSP of 1388 microg/m(3) near Seoul city.  相似文献   
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