Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea‐level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18‐year marsh‐bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea‐level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (?2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from ?4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea‐level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future.     

岷江乐山段有机污染状况及变化趋势分析

“三氧”是衡量水质有机污染的重要指标。本文针对岷江乐山段地面水质污染属有机污染的特点，以“三氧”为依据研究了其有机污染的变化趋势，并对其污染状况进行了分析，提出了防治污染的对策和建议。     

Long-term water quality in the lower Seine: Lessons learned over 4 decades of monitoring

The Seine River is a highly artificialised catchment in Europe, comprising both productive agricultural areas and intense industrial and commercial activity. Due to its strategic importance, monitoring programs in the river started as early as the 1970s. The present study compiles and analyses this valuable data set (1970–2014), thoroughly describing the riverine section downstream of Paris and the estuary. We identify long-term trends and shifting patterns in nutrients and oxygen, and pay special attention to the river’s evolution after the year 2000, when the European Water Framework Directive came into force. The study has a manifest management perspective, and the results are discussed on the basis of the environmental quality standards proposed in current environmental regulations. The data show that water quality has improved remarkably over the past two decades, with sharp reductions of ammonium and phosphate and a progressive increase of dissolved oxygen levels. The amelioration is prominent in the estuary, where summer anoxic episodes have nearly disappeared. As a result, these three parameters are nowadays in good or very good condition throughout the year. The successful abatement of point sources contrasts, however, with the low effectiveness of the measures provided for the control of nutrients from diffuse sources. Nitrate concentration has increased by 150% since the early 1980s, and only very recently has the upward trend been reversed. Bold agri-environmental management measures are required if we are to prevent chronic pollution problems and truly restore the good ecological status of rivers.     

Long-term phytoplankton trends and related water quality trends in the lower Chesapeake Bay,Virginia, USA

Long-term trends (i.e., 1985 through 1999; 14 1/2 yrs) of the phytoplankton community in Chesapeake Bay indicated patterns of increasing phytoplankton abundance and biomass associated with mainly diatoms and chlorophytes, and to a lesser degree dinoflagellates. Decreasing trends in productivity rates above the pycnocline were present over a shorter time period (10 1/2 yrs.), with evidence for increasing nitrogen limitation is indicated. Reduced light availability is inferred due to decreasing trends of Secchi depths and increased suspended solids trends, which were associated with decreasing trends in productivity rates.     

抗震性能设计的发展

现行建筑抗震设计规范是以保证人的生命安全为基本目标进行抗震设防的,即在小震和中等强度地震作用下控制结构的损伤发展,而在罕遇地震作用下防止结构倒塌.然而,据此设计的建筑由地震所造成的使用功能丧失而震后恢复重建所需费用或所花费的时间可能大大超过社会和业主所能承受的限度.因此,未来建筑在多级水准设防地震下的设计需达到多级性能水准已形成共识.基于性能的抗震设计将发展形成未来抗震设计规范.综述了基于性能的抗震设计的最新发展状况,提出了它存在的问题及进一步发展的趋势.     

ANALYSIS OF STREAMFLOW TRENDS AND THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE IN PENNSYLVANIA, 1971 TO 20011

An understanding of temporal trends in total stream‐flow (TSF), base flow (BF), and storm runoff (RO) can help in the development of water management plans for watersheds and local communities. In this study, 47 streams across Pennsylvania that were unregulated and unaffected by karst environments or coal mining were studied for flow trends and their relationships to selected climate parameters for the period 1971 to 2001. LOWESS curves for annual flow showed that almost all of the selected streams in Pennsylvania had downward trends in total TSF, BF, and RO. Using a seasonal Mann‐Kendall analysis, downward trends were significant at an α= 0.05 level for 68, percent 70 percent, and 62 percent of the streams and at an α= 0.10 level for another 19, 17, and 13 percent of the streams for TSF, BF, and RO, respectively. The ratio of BF to TSF (RBS) had significant upward trends for 34 percent of the streams at an α= 0.05 level and for another 9 percent of the streams at an α= 0.10 level, indicating that TSF decreased relative to BF for more than 40 percent of the streams during the previous 30 years. Downward trends in TSF, BF, and RO were most common for the months of June, July, and December. Trend analyses using monthly and annual total precipitation and mean temperature showed some association between climate and the streamflow trends, but Spearman's correlation and partial Mann‐Kendall analyses revealed that the trends in TSF, BF, and RO could not be explained by trends in precipitation and temperature alone, and thus urbanization and development may have played a role.     

泸州市城市空气自然降尘和硫酸盐化速率的探讨

本文以1992－2001年泸州市城市空气质量数据为依据，指出了该市自然降尘和硫酸盐化速率的变化规律，并对防治对策进行了探讨。     

旅游信息管理现状及其发展趋势

随着国民经济的迅速发展，旅游业和信息业的发展也日新月异，旅游信息化成为研究和应用的一个热点话题。文章概述了信息管理内涵，浅析了旅游信息的现状和不足，并就其发展前景和趋势进行了预测分析，以期为旅游规划和管理决策提供一定的宏观指导和理论支持。     

苏州市大气环境质量变化趋势及建设生态城市的对策与途径

通过对苏州近十年的大气环境数据的分析,描述出其发展趋势,并找出其存在的主要问题与成因,在此基础上提出了以改善大气环境质量为中心的完善和促进苏州建设生态城市的对策与途径,即以＂城市布局、产业能源结构、交通设施与工具、区域合作＂为改善与建设主架,各层次、多方位有机协调提升苏州市大气环境质量,从而推动苏州现代生态城市的建设,提升苏州综合竞争力.