Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

若干生态农业的模式及其应用

本文根据浙江省生态农业的实践,总结出数种生态农业模式,叙述了各种模式的结构、功能、效益、特点及应用现状,提出了模式的适用对象和应用时需重点注意的问题。     

Occurrence and congeners specific of poiychlorinated biphenyls in agricultural soils from Southern Jiangsu, China

A total of 198 agricultural soil samples were collected from Zhangjiagang and Changshu in Southern Jiangsu for analysis of 13 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in order to assess the levels of pollution, sources, area distribution, and potential risk for the environment. All methods were rigorously tested and an adequate quality control was ensured. Only one site had no PCBs residues, and the highest total PCBs concentration in the surface soils was 32.83 ng/g. The average concentration in all the soil samples was 4.13 ng/g, signaling low-level pollution. Tetra-, penta-, and hexa-chlorinated biphenyls were dominant species in soil samples, accounting for more than 75% ofΣPCBs in the soil samples. PCB118 was the most abundant congener in all the samples. The PCB118 was about 20% ofΣPCBs. The soil organic matter content showed only a weak correlation with the levels of all PCB congeners, in which a better correlation was noted for the more volatile lighter PCB congeners than for the heavier homologues. To a certain extent, the sources and land use seemed to influence the levels of PCBs.     

内蒙古发展循环经济的方向与政策初探

本文从内蒙古资源、经济与环境问题现状出发，分析了发展循环经济的必要性、紧迫性和可行性，提出了我区建立循环经济的发展战略应考虑的基本原则，发展方向和法律、政策方面的建议。     

河西走廊灌溉农业发展的水资源承载能力分析

论文采用模糊综合评判方法,对河西走廊灌溉农业发展的水资源承载能力进行了分析,建立了评价的数学模型。研究表明,该区水资源开发利用已近于其饱和容量,发展节水灌溉,充分提高水的利用效率,是保障和发展干旱区农业的根本出路。     

内蒙古农业循环经济发展模式初探

循环经济是目前各国走可持续发展道路的有效途径,循环型农业就是把循环经济理念应用于农业生产.本文分析了内蒙古自治区发展农业循环经济的必要性,尝试运用循环经济理念探求内蒙古自治区新的农业发展方式,以实现内蒙古自治区农业可持续发展.通过分析,初步提出了内蒙古开展农业循环经济的发展模式.     

分散式小区污水回用分析研究

污水回用处理可分为分散式和集中式,本文着重就分散式小区污水回用处理模式进行探讨,比较分析国内外典型国家或城市的技术和应用现状,在此基础上,指出我国分散式小区污水回用模式当前实施存在的问题及今后的发展趋势.     

生态技术创新政府启动模式的机理与启示

生态技术创新是经济可持续发展的必要条件。由于环境资源的公共性，时滞性等特点，政府在生态技术创新过程中发挥重要的作用，是企业生态技术创新的主要推动力。政府启动模式的本 于政府借助法律或经济手段促使企业部分边际外部费用内部化。     

循环经济在煤矿生产中的实施和发展前景

循环经济是2l世纪可持续发展的战略选择,煤矿生产发展和实施循环经济模式是煤炭行业经济结构改革的重要内容。通过对煤矿生产过程中发展循环经济的论述。探讨了煤矿生产建立“煤电建材联营”为产业链的循环经济发展模式,提出了煤矿生产实施循环经济的措施。     

生态农业建设中的水资源生命周期及系统功能响应

论文从生命周期角度，对原先自然环境恶劣、通过生态农业建设取得了良好效果的3个生态农业县的水资源利用进行了全过程研究。结果表明，水资源生命周期过程的进展情况受多种因素影响。目前，各生态农业县水资源生命周期过程仍处在发育的初级阶段。这一过程的完整性与系统生态、经济和社会功能的提高成正比。