秦皇岛市50年气候变化与可持续发展战略研究

秦皇岛市50年来气候变暖变干，年平均气温提高2．3℃，≥10℃年积温增加11．4％，无霜期延长22天，但年平均降水量却减少12．6％。这对农业和工业的影响弊大于利，对旅游业的影响则有利有弊。为此应趋利避害，加强水资源的开源节流，发展节水经济和循环经济，发展休闲度假旅游，延长旺季。     

社区居民参与的激励因素——"周庄现象"的思考

从对“周庄现象”的思考提出了为实现旅游可持续发展而激励旅游地居民参与的两种因素——物质激励因素及非物质激励因素，分析了两种激励因素的运用与作用机理，认为激励手段的使用要根据旅游地的发展阶段有重点地确定，这样才能激发旅游地居民积极参与到旅游业的发展中去。     

漂粉精生产过程中危险有害因素分析

通过对天津市漂粉精生产企业进行研究,分析了漂粉精生产过程可能存在的危险有害因素是尘毒、火灾、爆炸、灼伤、机械伤害等,并针对上述危险有害因素提出相应的防毒,防火防爆,防灼伤,防机械伤害等安全技术措施及安全管理措施.     

古代黄河中游的环境变化和灾害——对都城迁移发展的影响

都城的选址、建设和迁移发展必须以环境资源为基础。我国古代的国家都城在黄河中游反复迁移，以至最后东迁南迁。在这个过程中，环境变迁和灾害一直是重要的驱动因素之一。通过统计分析历史时期洪涝和干旱灾害，以及气候水文变化资料，结合古都所在地的环境资源条件分析讨论，揭示了黄河中游环境变化和灾害对都城迁移发展的影响。都城在长安与洛阳之间的反复迁移，以及后来的东移开封，和南移到长江下游平原，环境的变迁是重要的驱动力之一。     

基于驾驶适宜性检测的沙漠公路驾驶员视觉特性分析

利用动体视力检测仪,对沙漠公路行车途中汽车驾驶员进行包括静视力和动体视力在内的视觉特性的实地测试,并就获得的1004个有效样本的检测数据进行统计整理,对受测驾驶员静、动体视力总体情况及其与驾驶员年龄、驾龄、持续行车时间、检测时的气温等因素之间的关系进行分析研究。对驾驶员视觉特性的实测分析表明:沙漠公路受测驾驶员静视力和动体视力平均值分别为1.3和0.7;动体视力相对于静视力的平均下降幅度为44.75%,远高于绿洲地区。关联度分析也表明,驾驶员的年龄、驾龄、驾车时间以及测试温度4项因素对其静视力、动视力以及视力降幅均具有较强的相关性,关联度均在0.76以上。     

基于模糊聚类的马氏链模型在交通事故预测中的应用

运用模糊聚类分析方法,借助于MATLAB软件,对中国31个地区交通事故的危害程度进行动态分类和综合评价。根据中国1999—2005年31个地区的交通事故4个指标和5个社会经济因素数据,把31个地区分为3类,即轻灾区、较重灾区、重灾区;其中浙江、福建与宁夏的交通事故危害严重,上海、北京与天津的交通状况正在好转,这与客观实际符合。根据模糊聚类的结果,求得交通事故状态转移概率矩阵,利用马氏链模型可预测未来31个地区的交通事故发展趋势。     

LPG混空气工程安全措施探讨

随着LPG混空气技术在工业和日常生活中的大规模使用,LPG储运、空混气的制备与储运以及空混气的使用等各个环节的潜在危险也就越来越明显地暴露出来,一旦发生事故,其后果十分严重. 对LPG混空气工程存在的危险因素进行分析,并提出了有针对性的措施及安全边界条件.     

Upland Controls on the Hydrological Functioning of Riparian Zones in Glacial Till Valleys of the Midwest1

Abstract: Identifying relationships between landscape hydrogeological setting, riparian hydrological functioning and riparian zone sensitivity to climate and water quality changes is critical in order to best use riparian zones as best management practices in the future. In this study, we investigate water table dynamics, water flow path and the relative importance of precipitation, deep ground water (DG) and seep water as sources of water to a riparian zone in a deeply incised glacial till valley of the Midwest. Data indicate that water table fluctuations are strongly influenced by soil texture and to a lesser extent by upland sediment stratigraphy producing seeps near the slope bottom. The occurrence of till in the upland and at 1.7‐2 m in the riparian zone contributes to maintaining flow parallel to the ground surface at this site. Lateral ground‐water fluxes at this site with a steep topography in the upland (16%) and loam soil near the slope bottom are small (<10 l/d/m stream length) and intermittent. A shift in flow path from a lateral direction to a down valley direction is observed in the summer despite the steep concave topography and the occurrence of seeps at the slope bottom. Principal component and discriminant analysis indicate that riparian water is most similar to seep water throughout the year and that DG originating from imbedded sand and gravel layers in the lower till unit is not a major source of water to riparian zones in this setting. Water quality data and the dependence of the riparian zone for recharge on seep water suggest that sites in this setting may be highly sensitive to changes in precipitation and water quality in the upland in the future. A conceptual framework describing the hydrological functioning of riparian zones on this setting is presented to generalize the finding of this study.     

COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE ENGINEERING DESIGNS1

ABSTRACT: Procedures are presented for comparing and evaluating alternative engineering designs for a particular water resources project. By using certain aspects of fuzzy set theory, it is possible to introduce both quantitative and qualitative considerations into the decisionmaking process. In addition, the viewpoints of the various interest groups involved with the water resources development can be realistically incorporated by the evaluation techniques for the alternative designs. Methods are given for eliminating undesirable alternatives and thereby obtaining a reduced set of possible feasible solutions to the problem. Because of the flexibility of the evaluation methods, the viable alternatives should not only satisfy economical, technical. environmental and other types of constraints, but these possible solutions should be politically feasible as well. A method is formulated for checking the sensitivity of the feasible results with respect to the factors that are considered in the analysis.     

Effect of Macroalgal Expansion and Marine Protected Areas on Coral Recovery Following a Climatic Disturbance

Disturbance plays an important role in structuring marine ecosystems, and there is a need to understand how conservation practices, such as the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), facilitate postdisturbance recovery. We evaluated the association of MPAs, herbivorous fish biomass, substrate type, postdisturbance coral cover, and change in macroalgal cover with coral recovery on the fringing reefs of the inner Seychelle islands, where coral mortality after a 1998 bleaching event was extensive. We visually estimated benthic cover and fish biomass at 9 sites in MPAs where fishing is banned and at 12 sites where fishing is permitted in 1994, 2005, 2008, and 2011. We used analysis of variance to examine spatial and temporal variations in coral cover and generalized additive models to identify relations between coral recovery and the aforementioned factors that may promote recovery. Coral recovery occurred on all substrate types, but it was highly variable among sites and times. Between 2005 and 2011 the increase in coral cover averaged 1%/year across 21 sites, and the maximum increase was 4%/year. However, mean coral cover across the study area (14%) remained at half of 1994 levels (28%). Sites within MPAs had faster rates of coral recovery than sites in fished areas only where cover of macroalgae was low and had not increased over time. In MPAs where macroalgae cover expanded since 1998 there was no recovery. Where coral was recovering on granite reefs there was a shift in relative prevalence of colony life‐form from branching to encrusting species. This simplification of reef structure may affect associated reef fauna even if predisturbance levels of coral cover are attained. Efecto de la Expansión de Macroalgas y Áreas Marinas Protegidas sobre la Recuperación de Coral Después de una Perturbación Climática