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21.
目的 研究飞机实验室气候试验过程中风险的识别及分析问题.方法 根据飞机实验室气候试验流程,针对试验设计、试验准备、试验实施和试验确认等阶段进行风险识别和分析.结果 及结论识别并分析出实验室气候试验各阶段的风险,并在国内首次某民机实验室气候试验中得到应用.  相似文献   
22.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage is increasingly being considered as an important climate change mitigation option. This paper explores provisions for including geological CO2 storage in climate policy. The storage capacity of Norway's Continental Shelf is alone sufficient to store a large share of European CO2 emissions for many decades. If CO2 is injected into oil reservoirs there is an additional benefit in terms of enhanced oil recovery. However, there are significant technical and economic challenges, including the large investment in infrastructure required, with related economies of scale properties. Thus CO2 capture, transportation and storage projects are likely to be more economically attractive if developed on a large scale, which could mean involving two or more nations. An additional challenge is the risk of future leakages from storage sites, where the government must take on a major responsibility. In institutional and policy terms, important challenges are the unsettled status of geological CO2 storage as a policy measure in the Kyoto Protocol, lack of relevant reporting and verification procedures, and lack of decisions on how the option should be linked to the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. In terms of competitiveness with expected prices for CO2 permits under Kyoto Protocol trading, the relatively high costs per tonne of CO2 stored means that geological CO2 storage is primarily of interest where enhanced oil recovery is possible. These shortcomings and uncertainties mean that companies and governments today only have weak incentives to venture into geological CO2 storage.  相似文献   
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The long time scale of the climate change problem and the inherent nature of the carbon cycle bring important implications for present technology development efforts. Even if major technology improvements are achieved for non-carbon-emitting technologies such as energy-intensity improvements, wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear over the course of the 21st century, most examinations of potential future greenhouse emissions conclude that additional technology development will be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. The evelopment of an expanded suite of technologies including carbon capture and disposal, hydrogen systems and biotechnology hold the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper examines these technologies in the context of a global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, land-use, economics, and carbon cycle processes.  相似文献   
25.
以低纬高原城市昆明市为研究对象,通过比较分析,得出以下结论昆明地区受全球气候变暖影响年平均气温约升高0.5℃/a左右;由于城市面积扩大导致昆明的室内外气温均升高,其中室内气温升高幅度大于室外气温,干季大于雨季;不论是干季还是雨季,城市增温效应与城市建成区面积、城市人口均有较好的相关关系.城市建成区面积增加对平均气温的影响较大;而城市人口增加对平均室内气温的影响较大.城市建成区面积每增加1km2,年平均室内气温将升高0.0054℃;年平均气温升高0.012℃.而城市人口增加1 万人,年平均室内气温升高0.0259℃;年平均气温升高0.0098℃.  相似文献   
26.
This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.  相似文献   
27.
Five new towns have been developed around the Seoul metropolitan area since 1996. However, these new towns generate lots of traffic and related problems in the areas including those new towns and Seoul as a result of increases in population and a lack of ecological-self-sufficiency. Currently, construction of another new town is under deliberation, and what should be a major consider is the notion that the new town be located within a wide, green zone. Many studies have revealed that green space can play an important role in improving urban eco-meteorological capability and air quality. In order to analyze the urban heat island which will be created by the new urban development, and to investigate the local thermal environment and its negative effects caused by a change of land use type and urbanization, Landsat TM images were used for extraction of urban surface temperature according to changes of land use over the last 15 years. These data are analyzed together with digital land use and topographic information. As a study result, it was found the urban heat island of the study area from 198.5 to 1999 rapidly developed which showed a difference of mean temperature above 2.0. Before the Bundang new town construction the temperature of the residential area was the same as a forest, but during the new town construction in 1991 analysis revealed the creation of an urban heat island. The temperature of a forest whose size is over 50% of the investigation area was lowest, and thus the presence of a forest is believed to have a direct cooling effect on the urban environment and its surroundings. The mean temperature of the residential and commercial areas in the study was found to be 4.5 higher than the forest, and therefore this part of land use is believed to be the main factor causing the temperature increase of the urban heat island.  相似文献   
28.
Emissions trading is anattractive candidate for implementinggreenhouse gas mitigation, because it canpromote both efficiency and equity. Thispaper analyzes the interregional impacts ofalternative allocations of carbon dioxideemission permits within the U.S. Theanalysis is performed with the aid of anonlinear programming model for ten EPARegions and for six alternative permitdistribution formulas. The reason thatvarious alternatives need to be consideredis that there is no universal consensus onthe best definition of equity. Advanceknowledge of absolute and relative regionaleconomic impacts provides policy-makerswith a stronger basis for making thechoice. The analysis yields several usefulresults. First, the simulations indicatethat no matter how permits are allocated,this policy instrument can substantiallyreduce the cost of GHG mitigation for theU.S. in comparison to a system of fixedquotas for each of its regions. Interestingly, the welfare impacts ofseveral of the allocation formulas differonly slightly despite the large differencesin their philosophical underpinnings. Also, the results for some equity criteriadiffer greatly from their application inthe international domain. For example, theEgalitarian (per capita) criterion resultsin the relatively greatest cost burdenbeing incurred by one of the regions of theU.S. with the lowest per capita income.  相似文献   
29.
近50年丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
冰川是丝绸之路经济带中国境内重要的水资源,对该区农业建设和经济发展至关重要。基于修订后的中国第一次冰川编目数据和最新发布的第二次冰川编目数据,对丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化进行分析。结果表明:(1)丝绸之路经济带中国境内现有冰川22523条,面积25516.80 km2,冰储量约2592.85 km3,分别占我国冰川相应总量的46.37%、49.22%和57.39%,其中新疆维吾尔自治区冰川储量最为丰富,共计2366.25 km3。(2)丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川以面积<0.5 km2的冰川数量最多,共计15519条,占冰川总数量的68.90%;面积则以介于1~5 km2冰川为主,共计6833.71 km2,占冰川总面积的26.78%;各山系的冰川退缩海拔高度不同,面积减少速度在各个高度带均有差异。(3)近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川面积共减少4527.43 km2,变化百分比为-20.88%,有3114条冰川消失,冰川冰储量损失约419.35 km3。(4)丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化整体呈现自西向东加快趋势,减少速率整体上有自西南向东北加快趋势;冰川朝北消失数量大于朝南消失数量,东北方向面积减少最多,东南方向面积减少最快。(5)近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内有暖湿化趋势,冬季气温升高速率大于夏季且降水增加幅度小于夏季的气候组合模式,不利于冰川的积累从而导致冰川退缩;冰川发育规模对冰川退缩也有一定影响,但各山系冰川变化驱动力具有空间差异。  相似文献   
30.
黄河上游西线调水工程对调出区气候影响的初步分析   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
在分析南水北调西线工程水量调出区气候特征的基础上,采用定性与定量相结合的方法,重点分析了调水工程对库区与坝址下游临近河段局地气候的影响,以及调水对引水坝址下游“干旱河谷”区的可能影响,并对干旱河谷的分布及其成因进行了较深入的分析。结果表明:调水对库区气候影响不大;对坝址下游临近地区的气温、降水等将不会造成明显的影响;对干旱河谷区的局地气候虽有影响,但很微弱。  相似文献   
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