江南Z市农村饮水有机污染物健康风险评估

应用化学法及吹扫捕集、气相色谱-质谱联用仪(GC-MS),检测Z市农村不同类型饮用水与癌症相关的有机污染物,对污染物的剂量与癌症标化死亡率进行Spearman等级相关分析。该市河水、池塘水、浅井水中部分样品的COD_Mn、BOD₅和NH₃-N指标超过地表水环境质量Ⅲ类标准,微生物指标超过生活饮用水卫生标准,检出NH₃-N及NO₃-N、NO₂-N合成致癌物NAD的2类前体物及NDMA等直接致癌物。Z市农村河水、池塘水、浅井水主要受生活排污和农业生产污染,不宜作生活饮用水。不同类型饮用水有机污染物丰水期高于枯水期(P值均小于0.05)。癌症标化死亡率与不同类型饮用水有机污染浓度呈等级正相关(P值均小于0.05),与NO₂-N、NDMA、NDEA含量呈剂量-效应关系。直接饮用污染的地表水是造成该市农村癌症高发聚集分布的主要原因之一。     

Sustainable supplier selection criteria classification for Indian iron and steel industry: a fuzzy modified Kano model approach

ABSTRACT

The aim of this work is to provide a systematic approach for sustainability criteria clustering into different useful categories. For this purpose, a methodology has been proposed with the following three steps. (i) A comprehensive set of the sustainability criteria in economic, environmental and social dimension has been extracted from the literature and have been customised for the iron and steel industry. (ii) A fuzzy Kano methodology has been used to classify these sustainability criteria into useful Kano cluster like must-be, one-dimensional, and attractive cluster (iii) further, must-be and attractive criteria derived from the second step were further sub-classified into three categories using Type IV Kano model. All steps have been examined in the iron and steel industry of India and findings indicate that quality and delivery criteria are classified as high must be criteria in the economic realm. Further, environmental and energy management system in the environmental dimension and social responsibility and right of stakeholders criteria in the social dimension are classified as high must be criteria. Prioritising must be and attractive criteria enable decision makers of other industries to select the appropriate criteria to adopt sustainability.     

Ecological analysis of disturbed riverbanks in the Montréal area of Québec

In revegetation trials on disturbed riverbank sites in the Montréal region (Québec, Canada), an analysis of their structure by means of their biotic and abiotic components was undertaken. Vegetation sampling and physical surveys, together with soil analyses of 62 stands, grouped in 20 sectors, were carried out in the summer of 1986. The statistical analyses of biotic and abiotic data were executed in parallel by a hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis (arithmetic average clustering) and by an ordination in reduced space (principal coordinate analysis). The species colonizing these riverbanks are, for the most part, ruderals from the Montréal region, of which more than 50% are introduced species. The pioneering communities characterizing these artificial habitats have had very little impact on the physical conditions of their environment; therefore, the ordination on the plant communities proves to be strongly correlated to the ordination stemming from the abiotic components. The statistical analysis retains the original sectors, underlining the fact that each human intervention generally results in the creation of a particular ecological situation.     

上海市TSP-Pb空气质量监测点位优化研究

通过对上海市23个站点的TSP-Pb监测数据的分析,发现TSP与Pb之间具有良好的相关性.因此考虑只用TSP数据对站点进行优化.通过对各站点TSP数据的聚类分析,将所有站点分为6类,然后对包含多个站点的类,将类中各站点与本类均值一同进行再聚类,选取代表站点.最终选取6个站点作为上海市TSP-Pb污染水平的代表站点.优化前后的对比分析表明,优化结果合理,信息损失量小.     

单环芳族化合物结构与生物降解性关系的统计分析

使用量子化学方法MOPAC6．0-AMI软件计算了42种单环芳族化合物的分子最高占有轨道能(EHOMO)、分子最低空轨道能(ELUMO)、分子生成热(Hf)、分子表面积(TSA)、偶极矩(μ)和分子量(Mw)值；从ClogP软件查得分子的辛醇／水分配系数lgP。对化合物的上述7种结构参数进行因子分析，提取3个主因子可代表化合物的绝大部分结构信息。根据因子得分，对化合物进行了聚类分析。分别以各个主亚类中的化合物为对象，进行结构-生物降解性关系分析，得到系列相关方程，所研究化合物的生物降解性主要与取代基的电子效应有关。     

北亚热带过渡区土壤的模糊聚类分析

本文阐述了北亚热带过渡区十个土壤剖面的成土条件和基本性质，应用模糊聚类对土壤的五项诊断指标进行了分析，并与发生分类和诊断分类相比较．在中国土壤系统分类中提出建立淋溶土纲和始成土纲的基础上，探讨了供试土壤的分类地位。其中０１－０４号剖面属于典型铁质湿润淋溶上亚类；０５—０７和０９号剖面归为铁质粘磐半干润淋溶土亚类；０８号剖面为典型半干润淡色始成上亚类，１０号剖面为典型淡色滞水淋溶士亚类。     

Statistics: an essential technology in environmental research and management

Statistical methods as developed and used in decision making and scientific research are of recent origin. The logical foundations of statistics are still under discussion and some care is needed in applying the existing methodology and interpreting results. Some pitfalls in statistical data analysis are discussed and the importance of cross examination of data (or exploratory data analysis) before using specific statistical techniques are emphasized. Comments are made on the treatment of outliers, choice of stochastic models, use of multivariate techniques and the choice of software (expert systems) in statistical analysis. The need for developing new methodology with particular relevance to environmental research and policy is stressed.Dr Rao is Eberly Professor of Statistics and Director of the Penn State Center for Multivariate Analysis. He has received PhD and ScD degrees from Cambridge University, and has been awarded numerous honorary doctorates from universities around the world. He is a Fellow of Royal Society, UK; Fellow of Indian National Science Academy; Foreign Honorary Member of American Academy of Arts and Science; Life Fellow of King's College, Cambridge; and Founder Fellow of the Third World Academy of Sciences. He is Honorary Fellow and President of International Statistical Institute, Biometric Society and elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. He has made outstanding contributions to virtually all important topics of theoretical and applied statistics, and many results bear his name. He has been Editor of Sankhya and theJournal of Multivariate Analysis, and serves on international advisory boards of several professional journals, includingEnvironmetrics and theJournal of Environmental Statistics. This paper is based on the keynote address to the Seventh Annual Conference on Statistics of the United States Environmental Protection Agency.     

生活垃圾焚烧厂周边土壤中PCDD/Fs及重金属含量

为了解城市生活垃圾焚烧发电厂周边表层土壤中二噁英、重金属来源及分布特征,选取成都地区3座典型生活垃圾焚烧厂作为研究对象,开展了周边土壤中17种多氯二苯并对二噁英/呋喃（PCDD/Fs）及11种重金属含量监测.结果显示,土壤样品中的PCDD/Fs和重金属的浓度范围分别为0.25~7.5ng I-TEQ/kg和0.23～580.57mg/kg;3座垃圾焚烧厂周边土壤中多氯二苯并呋喃（PCDFs）的毒性当量浓度贡献率要高于多氯二苯并二噁英（PCDDs）,PCDFs毒性当量浓度平均贡献率达到55%;土壤样品中Cd、Hg、Pb、Cu、Zn之间具有良好的相关性,Hg、Pb、Zn与部分PCDFs具有良好的相关性,相关系数r分别为0.792、0.760、0.788,所对应的p值分别为0.034、0.047、0.035,并被归类为同一聚类,可将这部分重金属元素作为重金属示踪剂来表征PCDFs的来源.     

我国大气降水中δ18O变化的多气象因子分析及分区研究

分析了我国29个GNIP站1961—2015年逐月降水中δ~(18)O与局地气象要素(近地面的气温、降水量和大气可降水量、外向长波辐射以及500 hPa高度的风速)和大尺度环流因子(Nino 4区海表温度距平及南方涛动指数)的关系,并基于层次聚类分析和逐步回归分析方法,讨论了我国降水中δ~(18)O的分区,计算了区内降水中δ~(18)O依各气象因子的回归方程.结果表明,秦岭-淮河一线南北两侧站点降水中δ~(18)O与气象因子之间的关系差异显著,是我国的一条重要的降水稳定同位素环境效应分界线.我国降水中δ~(18)O可以分为3个区域,即北部区(包括西北和东北地区)、中部过渡区(含华北及青藏地区)和南部区,其中北部区和中部过渡区的分界线大致与我国西北地区和北方地区的分界线吻合,中部过渡区与南部区大体与我国北方地区和南方地区的分界线相一致.不同地区控制降水中δ~(18)O的气象因子存在差异:北部区为温度,中部过渡区为温度、500 hPa高度风速以及外向长波辐射,南部区是500 hPa高度的风速.研究结果对于认识我国大气降水中稳定同位素空间分布的特征及其内在机制具有重要意义.     

常州市冬季大气污染特征及潜在源区分析

为了解常州市冬季大气污染特征,对2013—2015年常州市冬季PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂、CO数据进行分析,并结合HYSPLIT 4.9模式研究不同气团来源对常州市各污染物浓度的影响及潜在污染源区分布特征.结果表明,常州市冬季以PM_2.5污染为主,其占冬季首要污染物的90%以上,冬季PM_2.5小时浓度对应的空气质量级别以良和轻度污染出现频次最多,冬季的ρ（PM_2.5）对ρ（PM_2.5）年均值的贡献率高达37.4%,不完全燃烧是颗粒物的一个重要来源.冬季ρ（PM_2.5）、ρ（PM₁₀）、ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）和ρ（CO）的日变化均呈双峰分布,两个峰值分别出现在交通的早高峰和晚高峰附近.ρ（NO₂）在晚高峰明显大于早高峰,而ρ（SO₂）和ρ（CO）表现为早高峰大于晚高峰.常州市CO/NO_x和SO₂/NO_x的分析结果表明,常州市交通源的贡献明显,点源对常州市的空气质量的影响也较大.1和6 h的ρ（PM_2.5）梯度变化可判识细颗粒物的爆发性增长.冬季常州市受到西北、西和西南等地区的大陆性气流影响较大,其对应的ρ（PM_2.5）、ρ（PM₁₀）、ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）和ρ（CO）平均值相对较高,且对应的污染轨迹出现概率较大.偏东方向的气流由于移动速度慢,不利于污染物扩散易造成污染累积,导致ρ（PM_2.5）、ρ（SO₂）和ρ（NO₂）相对较高.WPSCF（源区分布概率）高值区（>0.5）集中于从芜湖至上海的长江中下游区域和杭州湾区域.PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂和CO潜在源区存在较大差异性,NO₂、SO₂和CO本地化的潜在贡献较PM_2.5和PM₁₀更明显.此外,受船舶等影响海洋源区对NO₂、SO₂和CO的潜在贡献较大.研究显示,长三角区域的大气污染物以本地污染为主,但远距离污染输送贡献也不容忽视.