考虑公众选择偏好的应急避难安置双阶段选址-分配模型

为使开放避难场所符合公众自行避难的实际情况,借鉴Huff模型量化公众选择行为,构建双阶段选址-分配模型,第1阶段确定开放避难场所位置,第2阶段将溢出容量的灾民二次分配到有剩余容量的避难场所,并利用改进粒子群算法进行求解。研究结果表明：双阶段选址-分配模型能够实现同一需求点灾民前往不同避难场所的过程,管理者干预政策能够使服务人数大幅度增加,避免资源浪费、灾民流离失所且二次分配情况主要依赖于第1阶段的结果。研究结果可为管理部门规划应急避难场所提供参考。     

Forest resources and household welfare: Empirical evidence from North Central Vietnam

Using secondary data from a socio-economic quantitative household survey of the North Central region of Vietnam, the main aim of our study is to analyze the causal effect of forest resources on household income and poverty. Based on the observed characteristics of a forest-based livelihood and forest-related activities, we use a propensity score matching (PSM) method to control for potential bias arising from self-selection. The PSM results indicate that households with a forest-based livelihood had a higher level of income and lower poverty rates than did those without. Interestingly, our findings confirm that a forest-based livelihood offers much higher income than any other type of livelihood adopted by local households. Also, the poverty rate among households with a forest-based livelihood is lower than those earning non-labor income or engaged in wage/crop and crop livelihoods. Among households and provinces, we find varying opportunities deriving from forest resources, suggesting that there are potential barriers hindering local households from pursuing a forest livelihood or participating in some forest activities. Therefore, government policy and regulations on forest management should focus on improving the access of households to forest resources, while enhancing the sustainability of these resources.     

西南山地区域森林火险综合预报模型研究——以重庆市为例

森林火灾严重破坏森林生态系统的结构和功能,针对其风险预报开展研究具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。通过融合气象、地表覆盖和人类活动等要素的方式构建森林火险综合预报模型,是西南山地区域森林火险综合预报业务化应用的重要发展方向。基于《森林火险气象等级》国家标准(GB/T 36743-2018),本文研究首先构建了重庆市森林火险气象风险预报模型。然后通过融合可燃物因素和人为因素的方式,进一步构建重庆市森林火险综合预报模型。最后利用历史火点数据针对上述两类模型的精度进行对比和分析。研究结果表明:重庆市森林火灾发生次数较多,且呈现出季节性规律;重庆市森林火灾的发生不仅受到气象条件的影响,而且受到地表覆盖和人类活动等多种要素条件的共同影响;与森林火险气象风险预报结果相比,森林火险综合预报结果在空间分布上具有更高的精细程度;森林火险综合预报模型能有效提高森林火险等级预报精度。     

基于灾害风险评估的山地城市固定避难场所布局优化研究——以东川区为例

研究以各区域灾害风险评估系数作为权重系数,对山地小城市各区域避难场所进行优化布局。首先,通过风险值=危险性*脆弱性/抗灾救灾能力机理表达式构建灾害风险评估指标体系,并以模糊综合评价法得出灾害风险评估数值,在此基础上通过多目标选址优化模型来构建山地城市避难场所的优化模型,其中灾害风险评估系数作为影响布局的权重因素纳入其中。最后,以东川区为研究对象,对其固定避难场所进行优化布局研究,结果表明:东川区城区固定避灾场所数量可在接近最优解的情况下达到效果最优。     

Mapping the Spatial Variability of Plant Diversity in a Tropical Forest: Comparison of Spatial Interpolation Methods

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of plant species is essential to conservation and forest managers in order to identify high priority areas such as vulnerable species and habitats, and designate areas for reserves, refuges and other protected areas. A reliable map of the diversity of plant species over the landscape is an invaluable tool for such purposes. In this study, the number of species, the exponent Shannon and the reciprocal Simpson indices, calculated from 141 quadrat sites sampled in a tropical forest were used to compare the performance of several spatial interpolation techniques used to prepare a map of plant diversity, starting from sample (point) data over the landscape. Means of mapped classes, inverse distance functions, kriging and co-kriging, both, applied over the entire studied landscape and also applied within vegetation classes, were the procedures compared. Significant differences in plant diversity indices between classes demonstrated the usefulness of boundaries between vegetation types, mapped through satellite image classification, in stratifying the variability of plant diversity over the landscape. These mapped classes, improved the accuracy of the interpolation methods when they were used as prior information for stratification of the area. Spatial interpolation by co-kriging performed among the poorest interpolators due to the poor correlation between the plant diversity variables and vegetation indices computed by remote sensing and used as covariables. This indicated that the latter are not suitable covariates of plant diversity indices. Finally, a within-class kriging interpolator yielded the most accurate estimates of plant diversity values. This interpolator not only provided the most accurate estimates by accounting for the indices' intra-class variability, but also provided additional useful interpretations of the structure of spatial variability of diversity values through the interpretation of their semi-variograms. This additional role was found very useful in aiding decisions in conservation planning.     

Changes Of Hydrological Environment And Their Influences On Coastal Wetlands InThe Southern Laizhou Bay, China

The structure and function of the coastal wetland ecosystem in the southern Laizhou Bay have been changed greatly and influenced by regional hydrological changes. The coastal wetlands have degraded significantly during the latest 30 years due to successive drought, decreasing of runoff, pollution, underground saline water intrusion, and aggravating marine disasters such as storm tides and sea level rising. Most archaic lakes have vanished, while artificial wetlands have been extending since natural coastal wetlands replaced by salt areas and ponds of shrimps and crabs. The pollution of sediments in inter-tidal wetlands and the pollution of water quality in sub-tidal wetlands are getting worse and therefore “red tides” happen more often than before. The biodiversity in the study area has been decreased. Further studies are still needed to protect the degraded coastal wetlands in the area.     

A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

Sediment and Suspended Matter Lead Contamination in the Gulf of Kavala, Greece

Sediment and suspended particulate matter samples from 24 stations in the Gulf of Kavala have been examined for lead contamination. Grain size analysis and organic matter content were also performed. Total – anthropogenic sediment lead concentrations and enrichment factors at stations close to harbors and chemical industries were found higher (up to 209–135μg/g and 4.12 respectively), in relation to concentrations from the rest of the coastal zone. In the above areas, increased suspended particulate lead in the bottom of the water column was also recorded (up to 109μg/g). Total sediment lead concentrations composed of high natural Pb background increased with decreasing grain size, suggesting their association with the fine fractions of the sediments (31.1–66.0% mud presence) and the organic matter content (6–9% higher values). Overall, higher total lead concentrations in the sediments, determined by this work, appear to be significantly different from those reported for the Gulf of Kavala in previous studies and similar to those detected in other highly contaminated eastern Mediterranean coastal areas.     

Evaluation of Carbon Uptake and Emissions by Forests in Korea During the Last Thirty Years (1973–2002)

The contribution of Korean forests to carbon sequestration for anthropogenic carbon emissions was evaluated. In addition, monitoring of carbon species released from forest fires was conducted. Despite a high carbon uptake by Korean forests, a tremendous increase in fossil fuel burning resulted in a small contribution by forests to carbon removal. The removal efficiency had a 5–31% range with an average of 12% during the period 1973–2002. In 2000, the amount of carbon released from burned trees corresponded to 1.6% of carbon uptake by forests. The distribution of surface CO concentration (ppb) derived from MOPITT (Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere) showed high CO levels over the East/Japan Sea on April 10, 2000 when the largest forest fires occurred along the east coast of Korea. Trajectory analysis and ground CO measurements also indicated that CO levels over the East/Japan Sea were influenced by forest fires. This study suggests that continuous monitoring of carbon emissions from forest fires is needed for a more reliable estimate of carbon flux in the environment.     

Trace Metal Levels in Mussels (Mytilus Galloprovincialis L. 1758) from Turkish Aegean Sea Coast

Bio-monitoring of some heavy metal levels (Cd, Pb, Zn, Cu) in whole edible soft parts of Mytilus galloprovincialis (L. 1758) was conducted in Turkish Aegean Sea coast during the period of September 2002–August 2003 seasonally. Moreover, some physico-chemical environmental parameters, also have been analysed in the same region. The values of some physico-chemical environmental parameters in coastal waters of Turkish Aegean Sea were changed between; 9.0–27.0 ^∘C for temperature, 31.93–40.45 psu for salinity, 7.35–8.48 for pH and 4.05–9.50 mg/l for dissolved oxygen. The levels of trace elements in whole edible soft parts including interstitial fluids of Mediterranean mussels M. galloprovincialis (L. 1758), sampled from 6 different regions of Turkish Aegean Sea coast have ranged between; 0.04–0.52 μg Cd/g wet weight, 0.49–1.72 μg Pb/g w.w., 0.95–1.85 Cu/g w.w., 16.11–37.15 μg Zn/g w.w. The highest values for all trace metals (Cd, Pb, Zn, Cu) were measured in inner part of Izmir Bay (station 3) and lowest in Sigacik and Gulluk Bay (station 5, 6). Generally heavy metal levels are lower than the results in soft mussel tissues reported from Mediterranean regions.