中国南部沿海地区雨涝灾害时空特征及趋势预测

根据插补完整的近５００年旱涝等级序列和近４０年实测降水资料，分别制定了历史时期和观测时期雨涝分级标准。建立了五省一市１８个站的雨涝序列。在此基础上，探讨了中国南部沿海地区雨涝分布时空特征，并对典型雨涝年的成因及灾情进行了分析和评估，最后作出９０年代雨涝趋势预测，为沿海的减灾、防灾提供科学依据     

FLUSHING CHARACTERISTICS OF A MISSISSIPPI DEAD-END CANAL SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: A study of residential canal system on the Mississippi Gulf Coast and adjacent natural water bodies was conducted to determine the relationship in flushing characteristics between man-made and natural systems. The comparison was based on measurements of temperature, salinity, conductivity, coliform, pH, transparency, biological oxidation demand, dissolved oxygen, bathymetry, tides, water velocity, and Rhodamine dye concentrations. The results indicate that coliform bacteria increase with increasing distance of stations from St. Louis Bay and dissolved oxygen decreases in a similar manner. Biological oxidation demand was low at all stations; showing no differences between natural and man-made systems. The canal system Studied was shallower than adjacent water bodies and water velocities in the canal system are a function of tidal amplitude while velocities in the river are affected by both tides and runoff. The other parameters measured show little or no differences between natural and man-made systems, but reflect overall seasonal changes. Flushing rates between the residential canal systems and an adjacent natural system are equivalent on the basis of decline in dye concentrations measured over a five-day period.     

NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE AND THE COASTAL ZONE: A CASE STUDY OF HURRICANE ELOISE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents evidence that currently published flood insurance premiums may be insufficient to cover expected losses in coastal areas subject to hurricane. The problems of developing flood premiums in coastal zones are discussed and Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) reaction to these problems analyzed. Flood losses in the coastal zone of Bay County, Florida due to hurricane Eloise are compared with losses which would be predicted by the FIA. This comparison raises important questions concerning the adequacy of flood premiums in coastal zones and the undesirable indirect effects that underpricing flood risk will have on location decisions in the coastal floodplain.     

Novel dimensionless index for physically based assessment of thermal refugia characterizes off-channel habitat on gravel bed river

In the Willamette River, OR, main channel temperatures can be too warm for cold water fishes, causing fish to concentrate in secondary channel features that provide thermal refugia. However, temperature regimes vary among and within features. Improved understanding of physical processes controlling thermal regimes is needed. This study developed a dimensionless index for assessment of thermal refugia on the upper Willamette River. The novel hyporheic insolation (HIN) index uses minimal field measurements to predict thermal refugia resulting from buffering. Continuous water temperature measurements at one side channel, eight alcoves, and six beaver ponds provided data to ground truth calculated ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ predictions. Water temperature records were first used to characterize stratification at sites. Calculation of the Richardson number, an index of stability, showed two well-mixed sites and 13 stratified sites. At stratified sites, calculated ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ values characterized the ratio of cooling flux from hyporheic discharge to heat flux from incoming solar radiation. As ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ increased, measured temperatures at sites decreased. Despite overall scatter, a logarithmic fit to bin-averaged ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ values showed R² = 0.91. Calculations suggest that secondary channel features characterized by stratification and cool hyporheic discharge can provide thermal refugia. Accordingly, the HIN index may serve as a practical tool grounded in physical processes governing temperature across a floodplain.     

PRECISE WATER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS USING PHOTOGRAMMETRIC TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT Necessary input parameters for studying mixing zone characteristics of thermal plumes are horizontal surface and subsurface water velocities. Using time lapse aerial photography and analytical photogrammetric techniques, movements of drogues in an effluent plume were traced. From these traces accurate velocity vectors were obtained. Photographic coordinates of drogue images were measured using a glass scale. From the photo coordinates and the results of a ground control survey, an analytical solution was made for positions of drogues in the water at known intervals of time. Drogue positions were mapped for selected exposures thereby providing a visual display of velocity vectors in the study area. A rigorous error analysis was performed to determine the validity of the computed results.     

THE CONCEPT OF SAFE GROUNDWATER YIELD IN COASTAL AQUIFERS1

The traditional factors used to determine safe yield of a groundwater basin (water supply, economics, water quality and water rights) do not include environmental effects. Because of the unique estuarine ecosystems associated with many coastal aquifers, environmental effects should be included in the determination of the safe yield of these aquifers. Controlled saline-water intrusion should be considered as a management tool in coastal aquifers. Artificial aquifer recharge using treated wastewater may be used to increase the safe yield of a coastal aquifer system while preserving the ecology of the coastal ecosystems.     

Road traffic and nearby grassland bird patterns in a suburbanizing landscape

An extensive road system with rapidly increasing traffic produces diverse ecological effects that cover a large land area. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of roads with different traffic volumes on surrounding avian distributions, and its importance relative to other variables. Grassland bird data (5 years) for 84 open patches in an outer suburban/rural landscape near Boston were analyzed relative to: distance from roads with 3000–8000 to >30,000 vehicles/day; open-habitat patch size; area of quality microhabitat within a patch; adjacent land use; and distance to other open patches. Grassland bird presence and regular breeding correlated significantly with both distance from road and habitat patch size. Distance to nearest other open patch, irrespective of size, was not significant. Similarly, except for one species, adjacent land use, in this case built area, was not significant. A light traffic volume of 3000–8000 vehicles/day (local collector street here) had no significant effect on grassland bird distribution. For moderate traffic of 8000–15,000 (through street), there was no effect on bird presence although regular breeding was reduced for 400 m from a road. For heavier traffic of 15,000–30,000 (two-lane highway), both bird presence and breeding were decreased for 700 m. For a heavy traffic volume of ≥30,000 vehicles/day (multilane highway), bird presence and breeding were reduced for 1200 m from a road. The results suggest that avian studies and long-term surveys near busy roads may be strongly affected by traffic volume or changes in volume. We conclude that road ecology, especially the effects extending outward >100 m from roads with traffic, is a sine qua non for effective land-use and transportation policy.     

山东省海水入侵灾害危险性评价的GIS方案设计

以山东省为例，利用GIS技术建立了一套海水入侵灾害危险性评价信息系统。通过对多因素的综合分析，获取了各评判单元海水入侵灾害综合危险性指数，求得了各地海水入侵的平均距离，从而实现了山东省海水入侵灾害危险性区划，并能以地图或数据的形式快捷的显示处理结果。     

天津市滨海地区综合防灾减灾的策略研究

分析了天津市滨海地区历史自然灾害的历史和特点，预测了该地区未来一段时间和最近1－2年可能发生的主要自然灾害，提出了本区综合防灾减灾的策略和目标，为该区综合防灾减灾规划的制订提供了依据。     

资源型矿区可持续发展系统的协调性分析

资源型矿区可持续发展问题已成为人们关注的焦点.矿产资源需求的增加,开采力度的加强,资源不可避免的减少,而与矿产资源紧密相连的矿区,其生存和发展也随之面临着严峻挑战.从资源型矿区的现状出发,分析了我国矿区目前面临的问题,并从这些问题着手,提出了协调性的观点.基于协调性的观点,采用矿区可持续发展系统整体协调发展指数对资源型矿区可持续发展整体协调性进行了评价,认为资源型矿区的持续发展必须依靠其自身内部子系统的协调.