生态伦理:可持续发展理论架构的基础

生态伦理作为可持续发展的基础理论构架的根据．主要体现在：从自然内在价值论与自然权利论的角度出发为可持续发展价值观提供了合理性证明：通过对人与自然间伦理关系的确定、道德原则规范的制定及对人类道德境界的全新诠释,为人类可持续发展提供了新的道德观支持;通过对“环境公正”理论的深入阐发．丰富和完善了“公正”这一可持续发展的核心理念。     

废催化剂中金属组分回收利用概述

废催化剂中金属组分的回收利用具有经济性和环保性,从工程项目开发的角度,对废催化剂中金属组分回收利用技术与经济等方面的问题进行了概述,主要包括废催化剂原料的收集与分类、回收技术方案选择、经济评价及关键理论,同时也指出了相关问题及发展前景。     

基于模糊数学的石油化工装置HAZOP风险分析技术研究

对传统的HAZOP分析中偏差原因发生可能性进行量化。对于有统计数据的,根据行业数据、公司经验及企业事故建立HAZOP风险分析统计数据库;对于没有统计数据的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生概率,通过专家主观评判,用模糊数理论将专家自然语言转换为模糊数,采用左右模糊排序法将模糊数转换为模糊失效概率值。研究了偏差后果严重程度的划分标准,并根据偏差原因概率和偏差后果严重程度确定风险等级,利用风险矩阵得出偏差风险的大小。从而把HAZOP分析方法从定性改进为半定量的分析方法。据此对石油化工装置进行了HAZOP风险分析。     

基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型研究

重点阐述了基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型的建立过程,应用贝叶斯网络建立了开式压力机安全性评估模型,对冲手事故模型中的共因失效节点进行了说明,并最终计算得出开式压力机冲手事故的发生概率.计算结果分析表明:对于系统基本事件之间有共因和相关关系的系统,BN计算结果使得事故后果概率明显增大,设计者和管理者不能忽略共因和相关关系对系统风险的影响.     

飞行员人因可靠性定量预测

为有效预测飞行员的人因可靠性,以保障飞行安全,基于认知可靠性与失误分析法(CREAM)的扩展法,建立飞行员人因可靠性定量预测模型。依据飞行员的任务特点,调整认知行为及认知功能。通过优化共同绩效条件(CPC)因子水平等级,并增加新的因子,改进CPC因子依赖规则,用于修正因子的初始评估结果,解决扩展法未考虑因子间关系的问题,从而完成模型的建立。利用回看分析法验证模型的有效性,采用所建立的模型和扩展法分别对已发生的飞行案例进行预测,并与实际发生结果对比分析。结果表明,与扩展法相比,采用飞行员定量预测模型得到的预测结果与案例发生结果所反映的控制模式更为匹配。     

Rethinking Community-Based Conservation

Abstract:  Community-based conservation (CBC) is based on the idea that if conservation and development could be simultaneously achieved, then the interests of both could be served. It has been controversial because community development objectives are not necessarily consistent with conservation objectives in a given case. I examined CBC from two angles. First, CBC can be seen in the context of paradigm shifts in ecology and applied ecology. I identified three conceptual shifts—toward a systems view, toward the inclusion of humans in the ecosystem, and toward participatory approaches to ecosystem management—that are interrelated and pertain to an understanding of ecosystems as complex adaptive systems in which humans are an integral part. Second, I investigated the feasibility of CBC, as informed by a number of emerging interdisciplinary fields that have been pursuing various aspects of coupled systems of humans and nature. These fields—common property, traditional ecological knowledge, environmental ethics, political ecology, and environmental history—provide insights for CBC. They may contribute to the development of an interdisciplinary conservation science with a more sophisticated understanding of social-ecological interactions. The lessons from these fields include the importance of cross-scale conservation, adaptive comanagement, the question of incentives and multiple stakeholders, the use of traditional ecological knowledge, and development of a cross-cultural conservation ethic.     

塔里木河流域水管理机制的设计

本文首先分析了日趋恶化的塔里木河流域水资源利用状况,认为落后的水资源管理模式直接导致了目前水资源在上、中游过量消耗和浪费,致使下游面临严重缺水及生态危机;然后从产权分配的角度对塔里木河流域的水资源管理机制进行了分析,对建立流域水资源“激励相容”的管理机制进行了初步探讨。     

行政正当程序视角下环境公众参与制度的规范与完善

行政正当程序理论是环境公众参与制度的理论基础。2014年修订的《中华人民共和国环境保护法》中已经确立以环境公众参与权为核心的环境公众参与制度,但是对于公众参与的规范特别是参与权的规范过于笼统。面对实践中参与主体类型界分不明、多项权利内容规范缺失、法律责任规范效力存疑及环境行政管理规范不足等问题,本文建议应以行政正当程序理论为指导,实现参与主体的类型化界分,细化公众参与权利内容,增加公众参与法律责任条款,并完善环境行政管理公众参与规范。     

事故的共性原因及其行为科学预防策略

任何事故都是有原因的,事故的原因可分为人和物两个方面,事故的严重度与事故频率间存在三角形分布规律.运用这三条安全科学基本原理和案例分析方法,分析多起不同类型事故.结果表明,事故的共性直接原因是安全知识、安全意识和安全习惯所引起的组织成员个体的不安全行为和物的不安全状态.用行为科学方法和系统化安全管理理论,制订了一个由规范组织成员个体安全行为的安全管理方案、个人行为纠正方法和安全培训组成的通用事故预防路线图,并阐述了路线图实施时所需要的组织行为分析、个人行为纠正和安全培训方法研究的最新进展.     

Are indigenous forest reserves sustainable? An analysis of present and future land-use trends in Bosawas,Nicaragua

SUMMARY

In recent years, indigenous tenure over forest lands has emerged as a means to conserve forests while recognizing indigenous rights. There is concern, however, that indigenous reserves may not be an appropriate policy tool for sustained forest conservation. Our research examined how recognition of indigenous common-property rights has controlled agricultural expansion and conserved forests in Bosawas Biosphere Reserve, Nicaragua. We used satellite imagery with empirical data gathered in the field on land-use institutions, population pressures, and land-use practices to compare whether indigenous communities under territorial management or public management are better able to (1) control the ‘fast threat’ of frontier expansion and (2) address the long-term ecological threats posed by indigenous land-use practices and institutional changes in the region. Our findings are that indigenous residents who share common-property rights over their territories are better able to control agricultural expansion than are indigenous residents living on public lands. With respect to the long-term threats to the region, a series of simulations of possible land-use pressures demonstrate that the enforcement of territorial boundaries and further development of indigenous forest management rules will prove crucial in determining land-use capacity and deforestation over the next 50 years.