基于层次分析方法的城市火灾风险评估研究

城市区域消防安全评估是科学有效地进行城市消防规划、部署和消防法规的制定的重要依据,对于城市建设和社会经济的协调发展具有保证和促进作用。根据《中华人民共和国消防法》及《机关、团体、企业、事业单位消防安全管理规定(61号令)》对消防管理对象的界定标准,提出分类方法,确定了城市区域消防安全体系的组成要素,采用层次分析法确定了各要素的权重,应用多层次多目标系统模糊优选理论,建立了城市区域消防安全评价模型,对城市区域消防安全评估进行了方法研究和具体计算,并应用所设计的模型对北京市宣武区的区域消防安全状况进行了分析评估。计算结果证明了方法的有效性。     

环境正义与中国的环境政策

环境正义问题的提出是和现代民法的社会化发展倾向不可分割的。环境问题社会利益的日益突出,环境资源的分配不公也在很大程度上推动了传统民法向现代民法的转变。中国的环境政策也应当从环境正义的立场出发,才能更好地适应国际经济发展的新趋势,从而更好地促进中国环境和经济的协调发展。     

我国绿色银行立法问题探讨

环境要素已成为考量银行业发展的重要指标,为达到社会可持续发展目的 ,从立法的正当性和可行性出发,以环境保护与经济发展关系的视角分析绿色银行立法中的问题.通过规范分析方法发现我国绿色银行在立法层次、软法特征和制度保障方面的问题.对此,通过坚持绿色银行基本理念、推进绿色银行"硬法"和"软法"沟通协调、健全绿色银行制度保障等...     

Are motorcycles really “donorcycles”? Examining organ donation rates between unhelmeted and helmeted motorcyclists

Introduction: Motorcycles are colloquially referred to as “donorcycles” among medical staff. However, the actual impact of helmet laws and helmet use on organ donation is unknown. Michigan’s 35-year-old universal helmet law (UHL) was repealed in April 2012 and replaced by a partial-helmet law. We hypothesized that there would be an increase in organ donation rates from unhelmeted motorcyclist fatalities. Methods: Michigan's Gift of Life Michigan organ donation database was queried from April 2008 through May 2015 in conjunction with the Michigan Trauma Quality Improvement Program database from the same time period. All in-hospital motorcycle crash fatalities were examined. Results: A three-fold increase was found in the rate of organ donation for unhelmeted motorcyclists compared to helmeted motorcyclists (p = 0.006). Motorcycle crash fatalities tended to be younger in age after the UHL repeal with an average age of 32.8 years versus 40.8, however, this finding was not statistically significant (p = 0.071). Additionally, there was no significant difference in organ donation rates pre-UHL repeal (2008–2012) versus post-repeal (2012–2015). Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate an increased rate of organ donation among unhelmeted motorcyclist fatalities compared to helmeted rider fatalities. There was no significant increase in the rate of organ donation following the Michigan UHL repeal. However, we identified that some motorcycle crash fatalities were from illegally unhelmeted riders in the past, prior to the repeal. Practical Application: Unhelmeted motorcyclists are three times more likely than helmeted riders to become organ donors, possibly due to the well documented increase in severe traumatic brain injuries in this population. From a public health perspective, helmets should be required for all motorcyclists and efforts to advocate in favor of helmet legislation should be supported by trauma systems and health professionals.     

对修改《大气污染防治法》着力点的思考

从2013年到2016年我国大气污染防治所取得的巨大成就不能用来说明2015年修订通过的《大气污染防治法》为防治大气污染发挥了巨大的作用。那些成就主要是由以《重点区域大气污染防治"十二五"规划》《大气污染防治行动计划》为标志的政府防治大气污染的行动取得的。《大气污染防治法》(2015)的加"严"修订主要表现在:罚则条款数量增加;违法行为种类增加;责任类型增多;多处设定"惩罚束";设定阶梯式处罚;创设身份罚新形式,多处设定机能罚等方面。那些加"严"修订都服务于实现"行为人不违反"这个规制目标。以往的研究成果表明,使"行为人不违反"的法律不能保证使环境达到一定的质量目标。近年我国政府环境保护举措取得成功的秘诀主要有三点,即:(1)减少绝对排放量;(2)政府负责,而不是行政相对人负责;(3)用权力推行,而不是用设惩罚"威胁"行政相使之守法的方式寻求大气污染防治目标的实现。要让大气污染防治法成为我国防治大气污染的基本依据和有效防治大气污染的保障,必须对新修订的《大气污染防治法》再行修订。新的修订应当以政府的大气污染防治行为为着力点。这样的修订主要应当考虑:建立大气质量目标制度;健全总行为控制制度;按照大气污染防治的需要明确对各级政府、地方权力机关的授权;规定政府或其职能部门的职责和相关行政权运行的约束程序。在对《大气污染防治法》实施了以"政府的大气污染防治行为"为着重点的修改之后,国家将取得法治国家建设和大气污染防治法制建设的双重收获。     

德国水法发展对我国治水的借鉴意义

本文从深受欧盟水政策影响的德国水治理的历史发展和基础理念出发,对德国《水平衡管理法》的法规框架和总则进行了阐述、分析与比较。德国经验表明,在法治框架下,依可根据持续性原则,对水事进行综合治理。只有根据可持续性原则和通过法治,才能长期确保水安全,维护人与自然的和谐,保持水体清洁和维护生态平衡,确保当代及后代人的环境与发展权。水事综合治理原则不仅要通过协调水体使用与保护之间的关系,来调整环保在相对于经济和社会的传统不平衡地位,更要遵循自然水循环的本质特征。建议我国在《水污染防治法》的修订中,需要基于我国现实技术支撑的易操作制度,来实践可持续性原则和水事综合治理原则,强化法律间的协调。同时,还在立法技术上提出了若干建议。     

电除尘器气流分布与粉尘沉降规律试验研究

简要介绍了斜气流技术机理,进行了均匀气流和斜气流状态下的粉尘沉降试验.通过试验数据分析,总结出了电除尘器内部两种气流分布状态下的粉尘沉降规律,指出斜气流技术的应用在提高除尘效率方面具有重大意义,并为斜气流技术的应用提出了一些建议.     

地震对边斜坡稳定性的影响研究

地震作为一种突发式的自然灾害,对边斜坡稳定性的影响是显著的,因此研究边斜坡稳定性在地震动力作用下的变形、破坏具有重要的理论和现实意义.笔者在总结了地震边斜坡稳定性常用的分析方法的基础上.提出了刚体极限平衡法中地震力的确定方法及考虑地震力作用的计算模式,为地震边斜坡的稳定性评价提供了途径,为该类项目防治工程设计提供了科学的依据,值得同类工程借鉴和推广.     

湖北省鹤峰县城区滑坡地质灾害风险评价

从地质环境条件出发,对湖北省鹤峰县城区15处地质灾害及隐患点(其中滑坡13处,崩塌2处)的发育分布特征进行论述,总结了研究区地质灾害的孕灾规律;基于孕灾影响因子,依托信息量法对鹤峰县城区滑坡地质灾害易发性进行分区,考虑滑坡规模大小超越概率、时间概率、空间概率,对研究区域分别进行了10 a、20 a、50 a和100 a...     

A derivation of the statistical characteristics of forest fires

The analysis of large data sets concerning fires in various forested areas of the world has pointed out that burned areas can often be described by different power-law distributions for small, medium and large fires and that a scaling law for the time intervals separating successive fires is fulfilled. The attempts of deriving such statistical laws from purely theoretical arguments have not been fully successful so far, most likely because important physical and/or biological factors controlling forest fires were not taken into account. By contrast, the two-layer spatially extended forest model we propose in this paper encapsulates the main characteristics of vegetational growth and fire ignition and propagation, and supports the empirically discovered statistical laws. Since the model is fully deterministic and spatially homogeneous, the emergence of the power and scaling laws does not seem to necessarily require meteorological randomness and geophysical heterogeneity, although these factors certainly amplify the chaoticity of the fires. Moreover, the analysis suggests that the existence of different power-laws for fires of various scale might be due to the two-layer structure of the forest which allows the formation of different kinds of fires, i.e. surface, crown, and mixed fires.