中国典型资源型地区能源消耗与经济增长动态关系研究

随着国内外经济环境的复杂变化,中国资源型地区经济结构转型困难加剧。对资源型地区能源消耗与经济增长之间的关系进行研究,可以帮助该类型地区厘清经济发展过程中的能源消耗现状,对于优化资源型地区经济转型之路具有重要现实意义。本文以中国典型资源型地区山西省、黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省为例,选取1985—2014年数据,利用格兰杰因果分析对研究区能源消耗与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:1山西省表现出从经济增长到能源消耗的单向因果关系,黑龙江省与辽宁省表现出从能源消耗到经济增长的单向因果关系,吉林省表现出能源消耗与经济增长的双向因果关系;2山西省、黑龙江省、辽宁省都表现出从煤炭消耗到经济增长的单向因果关系,吉林省表现出煤炭消耗到经济增长的双向因果关系;3典型资源型地区都表现出从能源消耗到煤炭消耗的单向因果关系。4资源型地区转型务必将落实供给侧改革摆在发展首位。山西省应在提高能源使用效率的基础上选择集约化、低载能的新兴产业,黑龙江省与辽宁省应加大新能源的开发与产业化进程,产业应向高端装备制造业、现代服务业等产品附加值高、能源消耗少、环境污染小的产业转型,吉林省的重工业发展要以油气能源替代煤炭资源,在降低产业能耗的同时加速扶持已经相对成熟的替代产业,减少产业转型对于地区经济产生的负面影响。     

Improving Oxygen Conditions in the Deeper Parts of Bornholm Sea by Pumped Injection of Winter Water

Vertical diffusivity and oxygen consumption in the basin water, the water below the sill level at about 59 m depth, have been estimated by applying budget methods to monitoring data from hydrographical stations BY4 and BY5 for periods without water renewal. From the vertical diffusivity, the mean rate of work against the buoyancy forces below 65 m depth is estimated to about 0.10 mW m⁻². This is slightly higher than published values for East Gotland Sea. The horizontally averaged vertical diffusivity κ can be approximated by the expression κ = a₀N⁻¹ where N is the buoyancy frequency and a₀ ≈ 1.25 × 10⁻⁷ m² s⁻², which is similar to values for a₀ used for depths below the halocline in Baltic proper circulation models for long-term simulations. The contemporary mean rate of oxygen consumption in the basin water is about 75 g O₂ m⁻² year⁻¹, which corresponds to an oxidation of 28 g C m⁻² year⁻¹. The oxygen consumption in the Bornholm Basin doubled from the 1970s to the 2000s, which qualitatively explains the observed increasing frequency and vertical extent of anoxia and hypoxia in the basin water in records from the end of the 1950s to present time. A horizontally averaged vertical advection–diffusion model of the basin water is used to calculate the effects on stratification and oxygen concentration by a forced pump-driven vertical convection. It is shown that the residence time of the basin water may be reduced by pumping down and mixing the so-called winter water into the deepwater. With the present rate of oxygen consumption, a pumped flux of about 25 km³ year⁻¹ would be sufficient to keep the oxygen concentration in the deepwater above 2 mL O₂ L⁻¹.     

深圳笔架山水厂优化节水的实验研究

针对目前我国城镇需水量大、原水费用高的问题,大多数水厂通过降低自用水量的方式节约水资源。经过在笔架山水厂进行的生产性实验,优化耗水工艺的运行条件,挖潜了该水厂的节水空间,自用水量降低。优化后,全处理系统可节约水资源76.83万m3/a,耗水率由原来的2.08%下降到1.49%,同时水厂的经济效益也得到了显著提高,优化后可在原来的基础上节约运行成本近60万元/a。     

新农保扩大内需的实证分析

新农保制度是新推出保障农村老年居民基本生活为目标的社会政策,为评估新农保对扩大内需的作用,运用湖北省50个县域经济数据,遵循有效性和简约性的变量筛选原则,选取GDP为控制变量,构建倍差法模型,采用固定效应估计,发现新农保有扩大内需的显著效应。根据扩大内需的内在机制,这一实证结果表明:农民对新农保制度有较好的预期与较大的信心,即新农保制度增强了农民的安全感;农民具有一定的缴费能力,即新农保没有挤出消费;中国农村存在较为普遍的谨慎防备的消费心理,即安全感的增强提振了农民的消费;新农保缩小了收入差距,即新农保扩大了边际消费。新农保扩大内需的效应说明经济政策与社会政策、公平与效率在中国当前可以统一,为保持经济健康可持续发展,中国应逐步摆脱过分强调经济建设和经济政策的发展战略,逐渐转到更加重视社会建设和社会政策的发展轨道上来。但新农保扩大内需的效果没有在整体经济中充分凸显出来,因此需要进一步地扩大新农保覆盖面。     

中国经济增长与物质消耗关系的实证研究

本文运用广义最小平方法和处理面板数据的固定影响模型,利用我国各省市1995-2009年物质消耗指数、人均GDP和人均固定资产投资等跨部门的时间序列数据,分析经济增长与物质消耗的关系。其主要结论如下:经济增长与物质消耗呈现正向关系,没有表现出明显的去物质化。固定资产投资对物质消耗趋势在统计上具有很好的解释力。固定效应模型下的广义最小二乘法对于处理跨部门的时间序列数据有明显的效果,固定效应模型的省际差异项有效地刻画了物质消耗与经济增长相关关系的省级差异。我国目前仍处于有形资产的积累阶段,为了达到发达国家的固定资产积累水平,必要的基础设施建设不能缺少。产业结构的差异会影响物质消耗与经济增长的关系强度,第一产业相对于第二产业需要更多的物质消耗。经济发展水平同样会影响物质消耗与经济增长的关系强度,发达地区相对于欠发达地区需要的物质消耗更少。     

中国城市化进程中的城市道路交通碳排放研究

探讨了中国城市化、经济发展、技术进步等与城市道路交通碳排放之间的长期均衡关系与动态作用机制,并对中国城市道路交通碳排放进行了预测和情景分析。结果表明:①城市化率、交通能源强度、城市居民消费水平和人均GDP对城市道路交通碳排放的长期均衡弹性分别为0.93、0.73、0.68、0.44;②城市道路交通碳排放的最大贡献者在中短期内是交通能源强度,长期内是城市化率;③人均GDP增长率的提高,短期内会促使城市道路交通碳排放增长率提高,而长期又有助于使之降低;④中国城市道路交通碳排放持续增长的趋势在相当长时期内不可避免;⑤不同的发展理念和政策与技术的组合,可以使城市道路交通碳排放发生重大变化。基于研究,提出了中国城市道路交通碳减排的政策取向。     

Millennium Consumption Goals (MCGs) for Rio+20 and beyond: A practical step towards global sustainability

In January 2011, the idea of Millennium Consumption Goals (MCGs) was first proposed at the United Nations, because unsustainable patterns of consumption and production have led to multiple problems threatening the future of humanity. The global economy driven by consumption already uses natural resources equivalent to almost 1.5 planets earth, with the world's richest 1.4 billion consuming almost 85% of global output, which is over 60 fold the consumption of the poorest 1.4 billion. The consumption of the rich is not only ecologically unsustainable, but also “crowding out” the prospects of the poor and exacerbating inequalities that increase the risk of conflict and global unrest. The MCGs provide an innovative future vision and complement the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) that aim to help the world's poor. First, the MCGs seek to address the issues of global poverty and inequality by ensuring that the basic consumption needs of over 2 billion poor people are met. Next, the MCGs will provide benchmarks for the consumption of the rich, which will reduce the burden on the world's natural resource base. Instead of viewing the affluent as a problem, the novel approach of the MCGs would persuade them to contribute to the solution without having to reduce their quality of life. The MCGs apply even‐handedly to the rich in all countries. The concept enjoys broad support worldwide and is being promoted by a global coalition called the MCG Initiative (MCGI). A bottom‐up approach has already been started by many pioneering individuals, communities, organizations, firms, cities, regions and nations. They prefer not to wait for broad multilateral agreements and are acting now, to voluntarily pursue their own specific MCGs. A parallel top‐down path is being pursued through mandatory agreements at the United Nations/international level, starting with the Rio+20 Earth Summit and beyond. The MCGs fit in with other major UN initiatives like Agenda 21, the MDGs, green economy, SCP and the Sustainable Development Goals.     

张家界旅游商品市场供需分析及其对策——基于1100份游客问卷调查

我国拥有丰富的自然和文化旅游资源,旅游产业发展迅速,但旅游购物却是旅游产业链中的“短腿”,旅游商品收入占旅游总收入的比重长期徘徊在20％左右,低于国际平均水平30％,比旅游业发达国家低20％-40％。且我国旅游商品辗转于“零团费”与“纯玩团”的困局,其前景堪忧。从游客对旅游商品需求调查人手,以张家界为样本,分析旅游商品供需中存在的主要问题及症结所在,以探求促进旅游商品产业发展的对策措施。     

基于物元综合评价法的高耗能企业电力能效评价

分析、评价高耗能企业电力能效水平是政府和高耗能企业共同关注的热点问题。首次提出将物元综合评价法应用与高耗能企业电力能效评价,并构建了高耗能企业电力能效评价的物元综合评价模型,针对高耗能企业电力能效评价体系的复杂性和各指标之间等级划分不相容性的特点,应用物元可拓集理论构造物元模型,通过权重与关联度计算对高耗能企业电力能效等级进行识别。实证结果表明：基于物元评价法的高耗能企业电力能效评价结果更加客观、精细、合理。     

Socioeconomic Driving Factors of Nitrogen Load from Food Consumption and Preventive Measures

To diagnose environmental nitrogen (N) load from food consumption and to suggest preventive measures, this study identified relationships between nitrogen load from food consumption and driving factors by examining six representative countries and regions for the period 1970–2009 as an example. The logarithmic mean Divisia index technique was used to disassemble nitrogen load growth into four driving factors: population, economic activity, food intensity of the economy, and nitrogen content of food. In all study areas, increased economic activity was the main factor driving nitrogen load increase. The positive effect of population growth was relatively small but not negligible and changes in food intensity had a decreasing effect on nitrogen load. Changes in nitrogen content of food varied between areas. Broad strategies to reduce and mitigate nitrogen loading and decouple nitrogen load from economic growth in both developed and developing countries are suggested.