MULTICRITERIA EVALUATION IN A POLICY ANALYSIS OF A RHINE ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: As part of a major project to provide the Rhine delta protection from North Sea floods, the Dutch installed sluices at Haringvliet in the late 1960s and converted the Haringvliet-Hollandsch Diep-Biesbosch (HHB) estuary into a tidally-damped, fresh-water system. Two decades later, the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat commissioned a study of alternative policies for managing the sluices and removing contaminated bottom sediments, including policies which would at least partially restore estuarine conditions to the HHB. This paper describes the public policy analysis comprising that study, focusing on the role played by formal mullicriteria evaluation (MCE), including the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Through the tasks of value-tree structuring, impact measurement, and criterion prioritization, the MCE influenced the entire structure of the analysis, became an integral part of it, and, despite initial skepticism among the participants about the utility of multicriteria analysis, was subsequently accepted and viewed favorably by the majority of them.     

Time constraints and multiple choice criteria in the sampling behaviour and mate choice of the fiddler crab,Uca annulipes

Active female sampling occurs in the fiddler crab Uca annulipes. Females sample the burrows of several males before remaining to mate in the burrow of the chosen partner. Females time larval release to coincide with the following nocturnal spring tide and must therefore leave sufficient time for embryonic development after mating. Here we show how this temporal constraint on search time affects female choosiness. We found that, at the start of the sampling period (when time constraints are minimal), females selectively sample the larger males in the population. Towards the end of the sampling period (when the temporal constraints increase the costs of sampling), females are less selective. Furthermore, we suggest that the number of males sampled (and other indices of ‘‘sampling effort’’) may not be reliable indicators of female choosiness and may not reflect the strength of female mating preferences under certain conditions. Burrow quality also emerged as an important criterion in final mate choice. Burrow structure potentially influences reproductive success, and mate acceptance based on burrow structure appears to involve a relatively invariant threshold criterion. Since there is no relationship between male size and burrow quality, females are using at least two independent criteria when choosing potential mates. We envisage mate choice as a two-stage process. First, females select which males to sample based on male size. They then decide whether or not to mate with a male based on burrow features. This sampling process explains how two unrelated variables can both predict male mating success. Received: 23 March 1995/Accepted after revision: 14 January 1996     

我国自然保护区有效管理评价指标研究

本文根据我国自然保护区建设速度较快但管理水平较低的现状，在多年调查研究的基础上，提出制定自然保护区有效管理评价标准的必要性，并详细阐述了在保护区管理条件、管理措施、科研基础和管理成效等四个方面的评价内容，提出１３项评价指标，进而作了详细的评分等级划分，提出一套评价全国自然保护区管理质量的指标体系，为全国自然保护区管理的监督检查提供了一套简便适用、易于操作的评判标准。     

Significance of Sighting Rate in Inferring Extinction and Threat

Abstract:  We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However, comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids ( Paphiopedilum ). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However, such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed.     

Development of methods for establishing nutrient criteria in lakes and reservoirs: A review

Nutrient criteria provide a scientific foundation for the comprehensive evaluation, prevention,control and management of water eutrophication. In this review, the literature was examined to systematically evaluate the benefits, drawbacks, and applications of statistical analysis,paleolimnological reconstruction, stressor-response model, and model inference approaches for nutrient criteria determination. The developments and challenges in the determination of nutrient criteria in lakes and reservoirs are presented. Reference lakes can reflect the original states of lakes, but reference sites are often unavailable. Using the paleolimnological reconstruction method, it is often difficult to reconstruct the historical nutrient conditions of shallow lakes in which the sediments are easily disturbed. The model inference approach requires sufficient data to identify the appropriate equations and characterize a waterbody or group of waterbodies, thereby increasing the difficulty of establishing nutrient criteria. The stressor-response model is a potential development direction for nutrient criteria determination, and the mechanisms of stressor-response models should be studied further. Based on studies of the relationships among water ecological criteria, eutrophication, nutrient criteria and plankton, methods for determining nutrient criteria should be closely integrated with water management requirements.     

Protection performance of bicycle helmets

IntroductionThe evaluation of head protection systems needs proper knowledge of the head impact conditions in terms of impact speed and angle, as well as a realistic estimation of brain tolerance limits. In current bicycle helmet test procedures, both of these aspects should be improved. Method: The present paper suggests a bicycle helmet evaluation methodology based on realistic impact conditions and consideration of tissue level brain injury risk, in addition to well known headform kinematic parameters. The method is then applied to a set of 32 existing helmets, leading to a total of 576 experimental impact tests followed by 576 numerical simulations of the brain response. Results: It is shown that the most critical impacts are the linear-lateral ones as well as the oblique impact leading to rotation around the vertical axis (ZRot), leading both to around 50% risks of moderate neurological injuries. Based on this test method, the study enables us to compare the protection capability of a given helmet and eventually to compare helmets via a dedicated rating system.     

Distribution and contamination of metals and biogenic elements in sediments from Zhifu Bay of the Yellow Sea, China

Metals and biogenic elements were analyzed from surface sediments of sixteen stations and a 32 cm core collected from Zhifu Bay in July 2009. High concentrations of biogenic silica (BSi) reflected the high diatom productivity in the Bay. Meanwhile, total organic carbon (TOC) in Zhifu Bay was mainly from terrestrial sources. All metals were lower than the marine sediment quality guidelines. Based on the vertical profiles of biogenic elements, there was a clear increase of TOC, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphate (TP) between 1985 and 2000. TN concentrations decreased after the start of the operation of the sewage treatment plant in 1998; however TOC and BSi remained at high levels. Metal concentrations showed a general increase from the bottom to the top of the core. Most anthropogenic metals reached a maximum during 1996 and 2000, and decreased after the startup of the sewage plant; however, they have increased again recently. The results from correlation analysis and principal component analysis show that industrial pollution is the main source of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn contamination in Zhifu Bay, and Yantai Port and ship transportation also contribute a lot to Cd, Cu, Hg, and Pb pollution.     

平衡分配法在土壤环境质量基准推导中的相关问题研究

为了促进土壤环境质量标准的修订进程,势必要全面系统地开展土壤环境质量基准的研究工作。理论上,水、土之间是一个相互联系、互相依赖和关系密切的系统;同时,水生态毒理及其质量基准研究起步早,研究方法相对成熟。因此,从水质基准来推导土壤环境质量基准具有一定的科学依据与实践意义。本文首先从土-水系统中污染物分布的影响因素及其环境行为两方面简要阐述污染物在土-水系统中的分布规律;然后,扼要介绍了平衡分配(Eq P)理论及其在环境质量基准研究中的应用;之后,从Eq P方法的不确定性、毒理数据选用的争议性、Koc的局限性和分配系数的确定方法选择性等方面,探讨了平衡分配法在土壤环境质量基准研究中应用的瓶颈问题;最后,对此项研究进行了总结与展望。     

污染场地固化/稳定化修复的评价方法与标准

固化/稳定化技术是一项在欧美等国家的污染场地修复中广泛应用的技术.在分析固化/稳定化修复效果常用的浸出试验方法和物理评价方法以及相对应的评价标准的基础上,发现我国固化/稳定化修复效果的评价方法仅有少量振荡浸出试验的方法,还缺少动态浸出试验的评价方法;浸出毒性测试普遍采用硫酸硝酸法浸出评估,忽略了As、Cr(Ⅵ)等含氧阴离子在中性至弱碱性pH下溶解度达到最大的情况;固化/稳定化修复效果的评价标准则主要借鉴固废毒性鉴别与管理方法,但该方法未规定污染土壤资源化再利用时的评价依据;另外,污染土壤和固体废物的自身特性也有一定的差异.提出了基于我国国情的污染土壤固化/稳定化浸出测试和评价标准体系:当污染土壤固化/稳定化后采用卫生填埋或一般工业固体废物贮存、处置场处置时,可参考固体废物填埋处置时的评价方法与标准;当污染土壤固化/稳定化后原址填埋时,则应增加绕流浸出方法或穿透浸出试验方法,其评价标准可参考GB/T 14848—1993《地下水质量标准》或根据关注点浓度的要求进行风险评估推算确定;当污染土壤固化/稳定化后再利用时,需根据再利用的具体情景选择相应的评价方法与标准.