Spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for multicriteria-based vulnerability assessment

This research analyses the application of spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for GIS (Geographic Information System) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) within a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment regarding flooding in the Salzach river catchment in Austria. The research methodology is based on a spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of GIS-CDA for an assessment of the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. The main objective of this research is to demonstrate how a unified approach of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can be applied to minimise the associated uncertainty within each dimension of the vulnerability assessment. The methodology proposed for achieving this objective is composed of four main steps. The first step is computing criteria weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In the second step, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to calculate the uncertainties associated with AHP weights. In the third step, the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is employed in the form of a model-independent method of output variance decomposition, in which the variability of the different vulnerability assessments is apportioned to every criterion weight, generating one first-order (S) and one total effect (ST) sensitivity index map per criterion weight. Finally, in the fourth step, an ordered weighted averaging method is applied to model the final vulnerability maps. The results of this research demonstrate the robustness of spatially explicit GSA for minimising the uncertainty associated with GIS-MCDA models. Based on these results, we conclude that applying the variance-based GSA enables assessment of the importance of each input factor for the results of the GIS-MCDA method, both spatially and statistically, thus allowing us to introduce and recommend GIS-based GSA as a useful methodology for minimising the uncertainty of GIS-MCDA.     

Evaluating consistency of stakeholder input into participatory GIS-based multiple criteria evaluation: a case study of ecotourism development in Kurdistan

Multiple criteria evaluation (MCE) is often used with GIS to identify suitable sites for multi-purpose development such as ecotourism. Typically, expert or stakeholder consultation is used to identify weights reflecting the relative importance of map layers representing different criteria. The objective of this study was to evaluate a new consultative approach to GIS-based MCE, using ecotourism development in Kurdistan, Iraq, as a case study. In an initial and follow-up consultation, stakeholders were asked not only to assess the relative importance of different map layers for ecotourism development, but also to identify specific sites suitable for ecotourism. Seventy-eight ecotourism destinations nominated by participants had significantly higher MCE scores than a set of 58 locations chosen without reference to stakeholders (t-test = 21.16; p < 0.001). The approach thus provides a straightforward means of assessing the consistency of stakeholder input into MCE and could be adapted for use in other site suitability assessments.     

灰钙土重金属生态基准

提出从维护土壤生态系统整体结构与功能出发,以保护士壤生产力为核心,保持系统的良性循环为目标,兼顾到对其它环境要素,特别是水环境的影响,确定灰钙土中重金属生态基准的原则、依据和方法,并建立了C_d、C_u、P_b、A_s的生态基准。在此基础上制定的土壤标准,将能更好地保护土壤环境。     

中国长江三角洲流域百菌清水生生物基准研究

通过生态毒理试验,获得百菌清对长江三角洲流域14种代表性水生生物的毒性数据。分别采用评价因子法、物种敏感度分布法和毒性百分数排序法,推导长江三角洲流域百菌清水生生物基准值。评价因子法、物种敏感度分布法和毒性百分数排序法得出的急性基准值分别是0.066μg·L~(-1)、3.00μg·L~(-1)和0.51μg·L~(-1),慢性基准值分别是0.0089μg·L~(-1)、0.40μg·L~(-1)和0.136μg·L~(-1)。比较了3种方法得出的基准值之间的差异并分析了原因,在此基础上,提出了我国长江三角洲流域百菌清水生生物基准推荐值,并与国外基准值进行了比较。研究结果可为中国农药水质标准制修订及水生生物风险评估提供科学依据。     

基于ABAQUS的强度折减有限元法边坡稳定性分析

将强度折减有限元法与ABAQU S软件相结合,充分利用ABAQU S软件强大的后处理功能,动态显示广义塑性应变和塑性区的开展情况,以此对边坡稳定性进行判定。在ABAQU S软件的模拟计算中,通过不断调整强度折减系数F的大小,改变土体的强度指标c、值,得到不同折减系数下边坡中广义塑性应变的发展情况;当塑性区趋于贯通,且广义塑性应变和位移发生突变时,则边坡处于破坏的临界状态,此时的折减系数就定义为边坡的最小稳定安全系数。通过天然直立边坡及开挖边坡的实例分析,表明该法可以较准确形象地预测边坡潜在滑裂面的位置及评价边坡的稳定性,在复杂条件下的基坑边坡稳定性分析中是简便实用的。     

Heavy metal contamination in surface sediments of Yangtze River intertidal zone: An assessment from different indexes

Surface sediments (0-5 cm) from 59 stations within the Yangtze River intertidal zone (YRIZ) were sampled for metal contamination analysis in April and August 2005. The concentrations ranged (in mg kg⁻¹ dry weight): Al, 40,803-97,213; Fe, 20,538-49,627; Cd, 0.12-0.75; Cr, 36.9-173; Cu, 6.87-49.7; Mn, 413-1,112; Ni, 17.6-48.0; Pb, 18.3-44.1; and Zn, 47.6-154; respectively. Among the 59 sampling stations, enrichment factors (EF) indicate enrichment of Cd (52 stations), Cr (54 stations), Cu (5 stations), Ni (26 stations), Pb (5 stations) and Zn (5 stations). Geoaccumulation indexes (I_geo) also suggest individual metal contamination in localized areas. This study indicates that Cd, Cr and Ni enrichment in the YRIZ sediment is widespread whereas Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn enrichment is localized or nonexistent. Factor and cluster analyses indicate that Cd is associated with total organic carbon whereas Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb and Zn have a close association with Mn.     

An innovative sustainability assessment for urban wastewater infrastructure and its application in Chengdu, China

Sustainability assessments are an increasingly common tool for measuring progress towards sustainable development. Despite their popularity, sustainability assessments and the indicators that compose them are said to have had little impact on the policy arena. In this paper we discuss four attributes that we contend will improve the use of sustainability assessments to guide decision making: non-compartmentalization, site specificity, built-in guidance for target setting, and ability to measure active sustainability. We present a novel assessment tool for wastewater treatment infrastructure that illustrates these attributes. The assessment is composed of two-dimensional indicators we call “burden to capacity” ratios, that reveal and quantify the local value of resources embodied in wastewater and treatment byproducts, and the tradeoffs between designing systems for disposal versus reuse. We apply the sustainability assessment framework to an existing treatment plant in Chengdu, China and discuss the results.     

化工园区安全风险容量探讨

探讨并提出化工园区安全风险容量的内涵,从量化风险的角度论述区域安全风险容量;以个人风险、社会风险和潜在生命损失值作为化工园区风险容量分析的指标,并给出风险计算的模型和风险标准;对园区内企业生产规模、运输量与安全风险容量的关系进行讨论,认为企业生产规模的扩大可能不增加固定危险源的风险,但直接增加运输风险;给出了化工园区的现状及规划新建项目的安全容量的具体确定程序;以某化工园区为应用实例对安全风险容量进行分析和说明。