定量风险评价技术在管道城市穿越段的应用

介绍了管道高后果区定量风险评价的方法和风险可接收标准.将定量风险评价技术在我国某长输原油管道城市穿越段的应用表明,定量风险评价方法适用于人口密集的管道高后果区,能对管道高后果区的风险管理、决策提供重要的参考.     

填埋场原位好氧稳定化技术的应用现状及研究进展

综述了原位好氧稳定化技术的原理、系统构成、关键单元的设计和优化及终点评价,结合我国填埋场及垃圾特点,展望了该技术在我国的发展前景和挑战.均匀布气及配水是原位好氧稳定化项目实施过程中主要的难点.做好渗滤液导排保证堆体最优含水率、优化曝气及提气管道布局、分层整治并辅以高压局部曝气有望提高氧气利用率;采用分层回灌或者压力回灌以及控制回灌速率可分别改善液体回灌过程中的屏障效应和大孔隙出流效应,保障堆体布水均匀.好氧稳定化处理后垃圾腐殖土及场底土壤的风险评价体系及最终出路尚未明确,后期加强相关基础研究以指导工程应用是必要的.     

我国硝基苯的海水水质基准及生态风险评估研究

以一种重要的化工原料硝基苯为研究对象,通过收集、筛选我国本土物种的硝基苯海水生物毒性数据,同时针对我国海区生物特点补充8种典型海洋受试生物的毒理学实验,应用物种敏感度分布(SSD)方法推导了用于保护水生生物的我国硝基苯海水水质基准值。在此基础上,尝试应用2种概率生态风险评估方法初步评估了硝基苯在我国东海椒江口水体中的生态风险。研究结果表明,用于保护我国海水生物的硝基苯水质基准高值为1.42 mg·L-1,低值为0.037 mg·L-1,与应用SSD方法推导的硝基苯淡水水质基准差异不大。商值概率分布法和联合概率曲线法的风险表征结果表明,硝基苯对椒江口中的水生生物存在潜在的生态风险,需要管理部门采取一定的风险管控措施。研究结果有望为我国水质基准、生态风险研究及硝基苯的海水水质标准制定提供参考。     

Development of categorical mapping for quantitative assessment of eutrophication

Spatial distribution of nutrient and phytoplankton variables is often illustrated using categorical mapping for each variable. However, the assessment of eutrophication cannot be derived from a single parameter since a synthesis of the environmental variables related to eutrophication is required. These shortcomings are further complicated since it is difficult to discriminate between distinct trophic states along natural environmental gradients. In the present work, a methodological procedure for quantitative assessment of eutrophication at a spatial scale was examined in the Gulf of Saronicos, Greece, based on a thematic map generated from the synthesis of four variables characterising eutrophication. The categorical map of each variable was developed using the Kriging interpolation method and four trophic levels were indicated (eutrophic, upper-mesotrophic, lower-mesotrophic and oligotrophic) based on nutrient and phytoplankton concentration scaling. Multi-criteria choice methods were applied to generate a final categorical map showing the four trophic levels in the area. This synthesis of categorical maps for assessing eutrophication at a spatial scale is proposed as a methodological procedure appropriate for coastal management studies.     

基于多商品流理论与成本效益分析的公路危险品运输路径优化研究

风险是危险品运输区别与普通货物运输的基本要素,因此,危险品运输既要实现经济目标,又要满足安全的需要。危险品运输其路径优化问题的关键在于在经济性与安全性间取得平衡。为此,在运输成本与风险值间引入权重参量,并充分考虑到路网容量及个别路段最大期望风险等限制因素,运用多商品流理论建立了基于运输成本和运输风险最小化的双目标路径优化模型。进一步地,运用成本效益分析法,并从全局角度对不同解所对应的路径优化方案进行比较,提出了相应的比选准则。最后,通过算例分析证明了该方法的有效性。     

风险评价标准值初探

提出了风险指标和ALARP原则的含义,从风险评价的ALARP原则出发,得出个人风险评价标准值和社会风险评价标准值的制定方法。     

THE CENTRAL ARIZONA WATER CONTROL STUDY: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATE PLANS USING CONCORDANCE ANALYSIS AND MULTI-DIMENSION SCALING1

ABSTRACT The Central Arizona Water Control Study (CAWCS) was initiated by the Bureau of Reclamation in 1978. The study attempted to identify and evaluate alternate water management schemes for Central Arizona. By 1981 a set of seven plans had been developed and for each an assessment on a number of economic, environmental, and social factors had been undertaken. This paper offers a formal procedure, using concordance analysis and multi-dimension scaling, to compare alternate plans using multiple factors in order to produce a classification of the attractiveness of the alternatives. Empirical data for the CAWCS are used to clarify the procedure. The results of the formal analysis are compared to those produced by the CAWCS. A critique of the formal procedure is offered, and it is suggested that it may have utility to assist in the collection of data as well as in the search for a best plan. The procedure allows a number of different types of sensitivity tests to be conducted.     

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MODELS FOR APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A research project was undertaken for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to determine the relative utility and effectiveness of four well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM) models for applications in realistic water resources planning settings. A series of experiments was devised to examine the impact of rating and ranking procedures on the decision making behavior of users (e.g., planners, managers, analysts, etc.) when faced with situations involving multiple evaluation criteria and numerous alternative planning projects. The four MCDM models tested were MATS-PC, EXPERT CHOICE, ARIADNE, and ELECTRE. Two groups of analysts and decision makers were tested. One group consisted of experienced U.S. Army Corps planners, while the other was comprised of graduate students. Based on a series of nonparametric statistical tests, the results identified EXPERT CHOICE as the preferred MCDM model by both groups based largely on ease of use and understandability. ARIADNE fostered the largest degree of agreement within and among the two groups of individuals tested. The tests also lend support to the claim that rankings are not affected significantly by the choice of decision maker (i.e., who uses any of these MCDM models) or which of these four models is used.     

MULTICRITERIA EVALUATION IN A POLICY ANALYSIS OF A RHINE ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: As part of a major project to provide the Rhine delta protection from North Sea floods, the Dutch installed sluices at Haringvliet in the late 1960s and converted the Haringvliet-Hollandsch Diep-Biesbosch (HHB) estuary into a tidally-damped, fresh-water system. Two decades later, the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat commissioned a study of alternative policies for managing the sluices and removing contaminated bottom sediments, including policies which would at least partially restore estuarine conditions to the HHB. This paper describes the public policy analysis comprising that study, focusing on the role played by formal mullicriteria evaluation (MCE), including the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Through the tasks of value-tree structuring, impact measurement, and criterion prioritization, the MCE influenced the entire structure of the analysis, became an integral part of it, and, despite initial skepticism among the participants about the utility of multicriteria analysis, was subsequently accepted and viewed favorably by the majority of them.     

Time constraints and multiple choice criteria in the sampling behaviour and mate choice of the fiddler crab,Uca annulipes

Active female sampling occurs in the fiddler crab Uca annulipes. Females sample the burrows of several males before remaining to mate in the burrow of the chosen partner. Females time larval release to coincide with the following nocturnal spring tide and must therefore leave sufficient time for embryonic development after mating. Here we show how this temporal constraint on search time affects female choosiness. We found that, at the start of the sampling period (when time constraints are minimal), females selectively sample the larger males in the population. Towards the end of the sampling period (when the temporal constraints increase the costs of sampling), females are less selective. Furthermore, we suggest that the number of males sampled (and other indices of ‘‘sampling effort’’) may not be reliable indicators of female choosiness and may not reflect the strength of female mating preferences under certain conditions. Burrow quality also emerged as an important criterion in final mate choice. Burrow structure potentially influences reproductive success, and mate acceptance based on burrow structure appears to involve a relatively invariant threshold criterion. Since there is no relationship between male size and burrow quality, females are using at least two independent criteria when choosing potential mates. We envisage mate choice as a two-stage process. First, females select which males to sample based on male size. They then decide whether or not to mate with a male based on burrow features. This sampling process explains how two unrelated variables can both predict male mating success. Received: 23 March 1995/Accepted after revision: 14 January 1996