基于LEC法的煤矿安全投资决策

利用基于作业条件危险性评价法(LEC)的综合评分决策法,对煤矿安全培训、通风除尘设施投资的合理性进行评价,分析了系数的取值过程并得到综合评分决策的合理度值.结果表明,基于LEC的综合评分决策法对煤矿安全投资合理度进行分析决策,具有直观、量化的优点,在一定程度上解决了安全投资规模难以把握的难题,可以对煤矿企业的安全投资提供合理化建议,便于管理者决策.     

非常规突发事件应急决策方法研究

为深入研究非常规突发事件应急决策方法,提高对非常规突发事件的应对能力,调查研究基于应急预案、范例推理和智能规划等3种非常规突发事件的应急决策方法,对比分析这3种方法的特点。研究发现:这3种方法都可以在一定程度上为非常规突发事件提供辅助决策,但是基于智能规划的应急决策方法更适于非常规突发事件复杂的决策环境,有较大发展潜力。然后针对该方法,提出一些需要深入研究的开放性课题。     

基于范例推理的灾害性地震应急物资需求预测研究

基于范例推理(CBR)理论,利用最近相邻法和粗糙集理论搜索相似度最高的主震历史范例,分析各主要物资需求量的影响因素,预测当前范例主震期应急物资需求量。通过序贯决策,采用马尔科夫预测模型预测余震类型,进而搜索余震历史范例,预测余震期应急物资需求量。以"玉树"地震为例,运用该方法估算地震发生后食物类、生活用品类、药品类、工程机械类的需求量。     

安全管理决策支持系统的管理控制框架探讨

从安全管理的特性出发,用控制框图说明了安全管理控制系统的组成。在论述安全管理决策的内容及其最重。要的问题的过程中,提出了安全管理对象化的思想。利用6步描述方法解析了安全管理问题,并构建了安全决策支持系统的4 4模块化框架,为系统的研究与开发奠定基础。     

长江流域水环境监测与智慧化管理策略

针对如何将水环境监测感知与智能信息化手段运用到长江生态质量诊断与管理之中,梳理了国内外水环境监测与智慧化管理系统的发展情况,并以长江生态环境保护修复智慧决策平台为例,介绍了长江流域水环境监测网络建设情况,以及智慧决策平台在水环境数据可视化、水环境大数据分析、污染源大数据分析、水质模拟与预测、水质成因分析、流域生态安全评...     

Factorial fuzzy programming for planning water resources management systems

In this paper, we propose a factorial fuzzy programming (FFP) approach for planning water resources management systems. The conventional fuzzy method cannot reflect the interactions among uncertain system parameters nor quantify their interactive effects. This may lead to important interrelationships among system parameters being neglected in systems analysis, and the derived decisions may not be robust enough to support the management under uncertainties. The objective of this study is to develop an FFP approach to deal with such interactive uncertainties. Factorial analysis (FA) was integrated with the fuzzy technique to quantify the effects of multiple fuzzy modeling parameters on the system performance and to reveal their implicit interrelationships. A flood-diversion planning case was studied to illustrate the applicability of the FFP approach. The individual and interactive effects of fuzzy parameters on the system objectives were evaluated. The influential effects were identified and the implicit interrelationships within influential interactions were revealed.     

Local opposition against high-voltage grids: public responses to agency-caused science–policy trolls

High-voltage (hV) transmission grids are projects of societal importance that potentially have controversial social and environmental impacts. Former research shows that public opposition is sparked by the perception of negative local impacts and unjust concessionary processes. In this paper, we complement these perspectives by assessing the institutional practices of the regulatory agencies in dealing with scientific uncertainties. The regulatory agencies’ ‘ways of doing things’ are often designed to serve policy and management needs. A critical point is that the demarcation between scientifically based facts, values and assessments is often blurred in the decision-making process. This paper draws on two Norwegian case studies to investigate how the regulatory agencies dealt with (1) electromagnetic fields and health risks and (2) overhead lines versus sea cables. We argue that ambiguities and uncertainties that arise in the hV transmission line processes create ‘trolls’, and we explore how the local inhabitants and affected stakeholders in the two cases responded to these and how it triggered further opposition. By investigating how and why trolls appear and are handled, we conclude by discussing how public opposition related to hV transmission grids may be reduced – and how some ‘trolls’ may crack.     

铁路行车事故救援智能辅助决策系统研究

介绍了铁路行车事故救援智能辅助决策系统的设计及实现。采用产生式规则与数据库技术相结合的铁路行车事故救援决策知识表示方法。推理过程为正向推理。决策树分层分类并嵌入数据库。该系统可在行车事故现场以人机交互方式提供一个或几个救援方案。为铁路行车事故救援决策提供了一种新的途径与范例。并为人工智能在新的工程领域的应用进行了有益的尝试     

多目标决策-理想点法综合评价淮北市环境空气质量

运用多目标决策-理想点法对淮北市环境空气质量进行评价,评价结果表明淮北市环境空气质量达到了2级标准以上,能够达到淮北市环境空气功能区划要求。