基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评研究

为研究民用机场消防指挥员决策能力,考虑测评指标分为定性与定量2类,且指标存在模糊性的特点,建立基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评方法。根据相关规章规定、专家意见和问卷调查结果,确定测评指标体系,并依据云模型原理建立定性到定量的测评转换模型,将指标的定性测评转化为直观的定量评价;最后,根据云模型的期望、熵、超熵,评价民用机场消防指挥员决策能力水平。研究结果表明:利用基于云模型原理构建的定性与定量测评转换模型进行决策能力测评,所得测评结果能够体现评价指标模糊性和随机性的特点,评估结果更加直观且贴近实际情况。     

The challenges of participatory and systemic environmental management: from aspiration to implementation

Participatory and systemic approaches in environmental management are advocated as they are thought to lead to more equitable, resilient and integrated solutions. However, there is mounting evidence that, in practice, these approaches are exceedingly challenging and do not always lead to improved environmental management, or greater community engagement. To better understand the challenges facing organisations wishing to use these approaches, we monitored the dynamics of a decision-making process on an estate. We observed an oscillating pattern of widening and narrowing participation and integration. Three key factors created tensions with the estate's desires to increase community participation and follow a more systemic approach: stewardship values, organisational capacity and unresolved core issues. A combination of these tensions and other factors led to the early cessation of a series of planned participatory workshops. We conclude that academia needs to take these challenges seriously by placing greater emphasis on multi-dimensional, transdisciplinary analysis of such transformation processes.     

滇池流域水环境综合管理技术支撑平台构建研究

滇池流域水环境综合管理技术支撑平台以实现水环境数据信息化、支撑多元化、管理智能化为目标,集成水环境多元数据采集传输、融合共享及动态表征技术,突破高原湖泊流域多目标复杂环境综合管理决策控制技术,构建"数据中心-业务系统-信息发布"为主线的综合管理平台,其以水环境数据中心为支撑,以水环境信息系统与水环境专家决策支持系统为核心,以水环境信息发布系统为共享交换媒介,为流域管理提供监控预警、总量控制、预测预报、项目评估及应急决策等技术服务,有效支撑滇池流域水环境监控预警和综合管理。     

Constrained Choice and Ethical Dilemmas in Land Management: Environmental Quality and Food Safety in California Agriculture

As environmental and conservation efforts increasingly turn towards agricultural landscapes, it is important to understand how land management decisions are made by agricultural producers. While previous studies have explored producer decision-making, many fail to recognize the importance of external structural influences. This paper uses a case study to explore how consolidated markets and increasing corporate power in the food system can constrain producer choice and create ethical dilemmas over land management. Crop growers in the Central Coast region of California face conflicting demands regarding environmental quality and industry imposed food safety standards. A mail survey and personal interviews were used to explore growers’ perceptions and actions regarding these demands. Results indicate that in many cases growers face serious ethical dilemmas and feel pressured by large processing and retail firms to adopt measures they find environmentally destructive and unethical. Future strategies to address environmental issues on agricultural landscapes should consider the economic constraints producers face and the role of large firms in creating production standards.     

A case study of the opportunities and trade-offs associated with deproclamation of a protected area following a land claim in South Africa

Reconciling conservation and social justice imperatives is a major challenge facing many postcolonial states worldwide. Where historically disenfranchised communities have laid legal claim to protected areas, the typical resolution has been collaborative management agreements between the state and claimant communities. The real outcomes of such strategies for people and ecosystems have been seriously questioned, although alternative approaches are seldom explored. Here, we reflect on one such alternative that was pursued in a case in South Africa, where the land was handed back to the community and a replacement protected area created. Our objective was to explore the opportunities and trade-offs associated with this approach for communities and conservation agencies alike, and to compare these to typical collaborative management outcomes. Methods included key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household surveys. We find that, surprisingly, this approach created more benefits for the conservation agency than for claimant communities. Indeed, the community experiences bore a striking resemblance to those experienced in collaborative management settings: intra-community conflict, confusion over leadership and serious questions about the boundaries of the “community”. Processes aimed at redressing past injustice in disputes over conservation land, regardless of the approach adopted, must bring with them a strong commitment to building institutional and leadership capacities within communities, and pay serious attention to the ways in which equity and social justice can be fostered after the settlement of a land claim. Settlement agreements are frequently treated as the final step towards social justice, but are in fact just the beginning.     

基于气象灾害预报的作物种植类型决策方法

干旱、雨涝是农业生态方面重要的水文气象灾害,科学地根据水文气象预报来选择种植作物品种,一直是农业管理者、生产者非常关心的问题,传统的决策方法是根据农业总体区划、作物种植习惯和耕作习惯确定的,具有一定的局限性。提出了基于气象灾害预报对错概率的作物种植类型决策新方法,综合考虑了农业气象预报的误报概率和作物适应性,克服了传统方法的不足。对绥棱农场某种植区20年的水文气象资料进行了分析,计算了旱涝预报与实况联合概率矩阵,推导出水文气象预报对错概率矩阵;根据作物品种在不同天气状况的产量,确定了决策失误损失矩阵。实证分析表明,所提决策方法可有效地减少因旱涝灾害给粮食产量带来的损失,对作物品种的选择具有很好的实用参考价值。     

Integration and integrated approaches to assessment: what do they mean for the environment?

Integration and integrated approaches are increasingly presented as new and superior ways to consider the environment in policy- and decision-making. If used in an uncritical way, this assertion could become a hindrance to good practice and could undermine efforts to defend or improve environmental quality. The aim of this paper is to provide the missing critical perspective through an investigation of the meanings of integration found in recent literature on assessment. This literature represents a broad survey of European (particularly UK) and US critiques of assessment practices, and proposals for better and usually ‘more integrated’ approaches. These critiques and proposals relate to a range of assessment contexts, from relatively technical issues of data handling, to questions of the design, choice and implementation of policy options. This paper also surveys, and contributes to, literature that questions the central goals and assumptions informing assessment practice and environmental governance more widely. Fourteen meanings of ‘integration’ are presented, with a discussion of the potential synergies and conflicts among them, and with environmental objectives. Integration is argued to be a matter of value judgements concerning assessment design in specific historical and social contexts. Far from providing a panacea, integration would appear to create as many challenges as it might resolve in seeking to achieve more sustainable development. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江流域水电站施工区生活垃圾特性及处理处置决策模型研究

随着中国长江流域水电开发进入高峰期,大量的建设人员进入水电站施工营地,导致施工区的生活垃圾处理处置问题日益凸显。通过对金沙江HPS1水电站、雅砻江HPS2水电站和HPS3水电站、大渡河HPS4水电站施工区生活垃圾状况的调查表明,水电站施工生活区生活垃圾人均产量平均值约为0.68kg/d;以厨余、渣土、纸类塑料和橡胶为主,电池等危险废物含量甚微;容重、低位热值、生物可降解物质量分数的平均值分别为358kg/m3、5 234kJ/kg、43.22%。结合施工区所处的环境条件和周围的市政设施现状,采用层次分析法和最小成本法,构建了长江流域水电站施工区生活垃圾处理处置决策模型,可为大型水电站开发过程中施工区生活垃圾全过程管理提供指导。根据决策模型计算得出,HPS1、HPS2、HPS4水电站施工区生活垃圾最优处理处置技术为卫生填埋,HPS3水电站以外运综合处理最优。     

Integrating affective values to sustainable behaviour focused on Kansei engineering

Due to the changes and complications of emerging society, designers are required not only to know about their design values, but also understand the link between their design and the impacts on the users. This paper aims to show a Kansei focused proposition for sustainable behaviour. By investigating the relationship between Subjective Preference (Like-Dislike) and product evaluation, it shows how affective values, which are used in Kansei engineering researches, influence user’s preferences. In this study, it was considering (1) various factors of product (e.g. the view variation and blackness of products), and (2) Reality Sets (Uninominal–Binominal). Car-front-face, car-side, car-multi-aspect (as Uninominal Reality Sets) and combinations of car front and side (as Binominal Reality Sets) were used as stimuli. The experiment consists of item screening and product evaluation. Subjects were participated in both. The aim of item screening was at selecting subjectively preferred/non-preferred images. Images, which were screened through item screening, were reconciliated per subject. The aim of product evaluation was at investigating if Subjective Preference has related to product evaluation. Semantic Differential method was used as product evaluation method. Evaluation values were preference, aesthetic and pleasure. The findings shows: (1) Subjective Preference is related to product evaluation independently in Uninominal Reality Sets, whereas Subjective Preference is related to product evaluation dependently in Binominal Reality Sets (2) partial preferred images influence product evaluation in Uninominal Reality Sets, whereas Binominal Reality Sets do not influence it.